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River Decision with A A in 3B Pot

$2-5
I have a good image and am going up against two villains who know I'm a serious player.

Villain 1: Loose passive man in mid forties who doesn't like to play big pots against me because I've been getting the best of him for a few months. He's said "I never know where I'm at with you." He is pretty passive pre flop and a bit sticky post flop if he gets "married to a hand." Not a creative player.

Villain 2: Mid 50s Asian man who I open up my value 3B frequency to because he opens light and is a calling station. I've pounded some really thin value out of him in the past.

Villain 1 limps UTG+1 and folds to Villain 2 OTB who makes it 20. I'm in the SB with A A and make it $70.

Villain 1's food arrives and he quickly calls and attends to his food. Villain 2 calls.

Flop ($215) 5 5 9

I lead for $100. I feel like Villain one here pp heavy and more on the medium-high side, possibly as strong as QQ. I'm not looking to scare anyone away with a bigger bet on a dry board and hopefully can induce Villain two to peel one with as light as AK.

V1 takes a few moments and calls. V2 quickly folds.

Turn ($415) K

I feel like this is a bad card for getting value from because a lot of people might consider I have AK here if I continue. If I think I'm really only behind 9-9 here I don't want to scare him away.

I check. His back is turned and is looking at his phone and the dealer says it's on him and he looks at the board and instantly bets $200 with black (100) chips and goes back to his food.

Interesting, but I think I still have the best hand here.

River Q

Who leads here and who goes for a check-evaluate with a tendency to check call here?
Tagged:
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Comments

  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    I really don't like the flop sizing. If you put their calling range as medium to high pocket pairs up to QQ and occasionally peeling AK, then I would bet large. AK will be heavily discounted since most people will just fold multiway anyway and we also have two of the aces. Most medium pocket pairs are going to call almost regardless of our sizing but will fold the turn fairly often. They will often just call and see if you have AK. If you bet anything that looks pretty standard (2/3-3/4 pot), you will get peeled pretty often. Then you can start betting smaller to induce lighter calls on later streets.

    Given that the K is a terrible card for him, I'd underbet the pot. Remember, if most his range is AK and medium pairs, only AK will call.

    If we x/c turn, then I guess I x/decide the river. It's tough to say what to do though since you didn't give stack sizes. Could change things a bit.
  • ChiliPalmer Posts: 45SubscriberProfessional
    Agree with Dr G. Flop bet should be more like $130-150. If V2 has a decent pp (TT thru QQ) or AK, he will definitely call. He probably doesn't have too many 9's in his range. V1 likely has more 9's and 5's, but not too many either. And I think I'd probably lead the turn as well. I feel you're doing well to get 2 streets of post flop value with this hand, and if he raises the turn you're probably done with the hand. If he feels like he can beat a K, then he can also beat AA.
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    jeez - for a "serious player", you sure took the least profitable approach
    I hate fancy play because you never know where you're at and you often get stung

    On the turn - I don't know why you want to ever check unless you're check/raising
    I hate every betting line in OP

    as played - on the river - why not order a cocktail and when the dealer tells you that it's up to you - throw in one chip and say, "all in"?
    that should help make this the most poorly played AA in the history of poker
  • Arenzano Posts: 1,399Subscriber
    Effective stacks?
    Flop bet is okay, you could bet larger as PP will probably call. I think you can c/r turn then lead River.
  • mythomaniac Posts: 284Subscriber
    I forgot that effective stacks are 900
  • mythomaniac Posts: 284Subscriber
    beauregard said:
    jeez - for a "serious player", you sure took the least profitable approach
    I hate fancy play because you never know where you're at and you often get stung

    On the turn - I don't know why you want to ever check unless you're check/raising
    I hate every betting line in OP

    as played - on the river - why not order a cocktail and when the dealer tells you that it's up to you - throw in one chip and say, "all in"?
    that should help make this the most poorly played AA in the history of poker
    I have history with both players on a dry board so I'm going to be switching things up. If I bomb flop and bet turn when I think the K hurts his range I'm going to let him off the hook pretty easy and that's not what I'm trying to do.
  • Johnny_UtahJohnny_Utah Posts: 402Subscriber
    beauregard said:
    jeez - for a "serious player", you sure took the least profitable approach
    I hate fancy play because you never know where you're at and you often get stung

    On the turn - I don't know why you want to ever check unless you're check/raising
    I hate every betting line in OP

    as played - on the river - why not order a cocktail and when the dealer tells you that it's up to you - throw in one chip and say, "all in"?
    that should help make this the most poorly played AA in the history of poker

    Sounds like all rainbows and sunshine in your world huh Beau? lol

    I agree w/ your idea on the hand....but....Just damn.
  • boredoo Posts: 223Subscriber
    most poorly played AA in the history of poker = raised a lot pre, got called, bet a little less than half pot on flop, got called. WOAAT (WORST AA OF ALL TIME).
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    boredoo said:
    most poorly played AA in the history of poker = ...
    ...trying to milk a player on the flop (your value bets should = your bluffing bets)
    ...letting a player name his price on the turn for a river card
    ...wondering what to do on the river

    only 55 should be played this way.
    every other hand should be betting for value.

    once Hero made it 70 preflop - the cat's out of the bag, we all know he's got AA, KK or AK
    so who's he fooling with the tricky turn check?

    if V's got QQ in his range - well, wadda ya know - a Q hit the river!
    fancy play has struck again.
    who's on the hook now?
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    I like the bet on the flop. If hero bets bigger is he going to also get called by pairs? I want to target all pairs. I might even bet smaller. Like 95. Just under 100

    I agree that turn kills alot of your action especially if utg villain wudnt reraise w KK. I love the check to get river value. The big bet is a bit worrying especially since he is distracted with his food but still bets.

    Once the queen comes I dont think you can bet that either. So I would check evaluate river

    I dont get it guys with the worst played aces ever. I think he did a nice job here.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    I think you guys are all playing as if villain is a good thinking player. I just dont think most players are thinking that way.

    All they see if hero checked i have to protect.

    River card is a bummer. And if villain ships all in i dont think aces are generally good so its a read thing
  • DavidChan Posts: 1,208Pro
    edited April 2015
    Flop cbet sizing is fine given these stack sizes. I think that a cbet of anywhere from $95-$110 is good here.

    On the turn, I like checking the turn to get future value or a small turn bet. I think a medium to large turn bet is going to let Villain off the hook if he folds a lot of pocket pairs because the King is so scary.

    When Villain bets $200 on the turn, I think that you should minCR to $425 for value. There is no reason for simply check-calling here unless Villain is described as a LAG/button clicker who often bluffs river.

    As played, I would definitely lead river for value because I think that Villain is very likely to check back for free showdown with pocket pairs that were betting for protection on the turn.



  • FoldtoMyRaiseFoldtoMyRaise Posts: 312Subscriber
    edited April 2015
    What is the preflop 3bet calling range of a live loose passive player to your $70 preflop 3bet? What does this player think you are a TAG or LAG? I think his 3bet calling range is AA-99, AK, AQ .

    On a 9 5 5 flop, he has a full house 8%, overpair 66%, Ace High 26%, overcards 26%, 2crd bckdr FD 10.5%. Which of those hands is a passive player going to continue on and call an about 1/2 size pot bet? Would a loose passive player call with AK on a whiffed paired board? I think not but other may think so or discount it to 50% of the time. He would continue on with overpairs and Full houses. In my mind, that would probably represent his continuing range. So he has a full house 10% of the time and an overpair 90% of the time here. So we are left with 1 combo AA, 6 combos KK, 6 combos of QQ, 6 combos JJ, 6 combos of TT, and 3 combos of 99. Your hand equity vs this range on the flop is about 80% and his range equity is about 20%.

    On the turn the board is 9 5 5 K . You check. Does he think about your range here when you check back or is he just playing his two cards? On the turn he has a full house 24%, PP below top pair 72%, and an overpair 4%. Your hand equity is about 70% and his range equity is 30%. What parts of his flop continuation range bet half pot when you check the turn? Would a loose passive player bet half pot with a pocket pair below top pair on this board (a K)? Would a loose passive villain who does not like to play big pots against you bet with a pocket pair below a K? Would he instantly bet $200? I do not think so. I think he would bet an overpair (AA) and a full house (99,KK) and possibly QQ. A loose passive player probably checks back TT, JJ, if not QQ. Does he have any air in his range? Does a loose passive player ever bet the turn here with less than pair above 99s? probably not.

    On the river, pot is $815 the board is 9 5 5 K Q . How much remain behind (900-70-100-200 = $530 (2/3 pot sized bet left)). What is your hand equity against his turn betting range on the river (AA, KK,QQ, 99) ? Your hand equity is 5% and his range equity is 95%. He has a full house 90% of the time and an overpair 10%. The question is would a passive player call a river shove with a non nut full house? How often would he fold a non nut full house 3 combos of QQ and 3 combos of 99 and an overpair 1 combo of AA to a river shove. I doubt 3 combos of QQ full house is folding. Could he find a fold with 3 combos of 99 full house? Probably not, most rec players cannot fold a flopped full house. The 3 combos of KK, top full house, are not folding. I think he calls with 9 combos out of 10 (KK, QQ, 99) and folds 1 combo (AA) to our bet. We are good or tie 10% of the time if called and cannot get him to fold more than 10% of the time. I do not think you can get him off his river range enough to justify a river shove. A small bet will get also get called by all fullhouses 9 combos. So I think we check. If he bets small, you do not have enough behind to get him to fold with a check raise. So therefore we fold. If he shoves, we must fold. So I think this is a check fold on the river.

    Please let me know your thoughts about my analysis preflop, on the flop, turn, and river. What actually happened on the river?
  • mythomaniac Posts: 284Subscriber
    DavidChan said:


    On the turn, I like checking the turn to get future value or a small turn bet. I think a medium to large turn bet is going to let Villain off the hook if he folds a lot of pocket pairs because the King is so scary.

    When Villain bets $200 on the turn, I think that you should minCR to $425 for value. There is no reason for simply check-calling here unless Villain is described as a LAG/button clicker who often bluffs river.

    As played, I would definitely lead river for value because I think that Villain is very likely to check back for free showdown with pocket pairs that were betting for protection on the turn.



    I thought the turn was going to go check-check a fair amount of the time and didn't even consider a small c/r, that's something to consider for next time. Villain is not a LAG/button clicker. We might blow him away but if he is shutting down on the river unless he hits a gin card, I like it.
    FoldtoMyRaise said:
    What is the preflop 3bet calling range of a live loose passive player to your $70 preflop 3bet? What does this player think you are a TAG or LAG? I think his 3bet calling range is AA-99, AK, AQ .




    Please let me know your thoughts about my analysis preflop, on the flop, turn, and river. What actually happened on the river?
    We are up against a non-thinking player. Throwing AA out the window because he didn't take any time to consider anything but calling PF, same goes for KK but we'll discount half the combos.

    Spoiler....

    The river went check-check. He said "Well I guess you have AK" and tabled J-J. I showed my hand and he looked bewildered and went back to eating.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    beauregard said:

    ...trying to milk a player on the flop (your value bets should = your bluffing bets)
    You're doing it wrong. Unless you play with the same 8 guys every single day, you shouldn't be balancing in these spots. Playing exploitatively is the best way to get the money in small stakes holdem.

    What looks like a "milking" bet to one person may be an inducing bet (to get called light like AK high) to another.
  • ACK Posts: 428Subscriber
    beauregard said:
    jeez - for a "serious player", you sure took the least profitable approach
    I hate fancy play because you never know where you're at and you often get stung

    On the turn - I don't know why you want to ever check unless you're check/raising
    I hate every betting line in OP

    as played - on the river - why not order a cocktail and when the dealer tells you that it's up to you - throw in one chip and say, "all in"?
    that should help make this the most poorly played AA in the history of poker
    You seem like such a nice person.
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    edited April 2015
    chilidog said:

    You're doing it wrong. Unless you play with the same 8 guys every single day, you shouldn't be balancing in these spots.
    It's really player-dependent. But I can tell you that in our games - the most active players ARE paying attention (whether they're locals or regulars) and they ARE taking note of c-bet frequencies and bet sizes. How do I know this? Because after such as hand as this - they would talk about the hand and often compare what they thought each player had vs. what really appeared. (Unprompted and often with me just listening.)
    Many of the non-pros that play are into the puzzle-solving aspect of the game.

    If this was Zoom live poker - then, you'd be correct. But in our live setting, it's not unusual for a "civilian" to play for 3-8 hours. So if you don't think you need to bet your bluffs like your made hands... then, I guess I am doing it wrong. But my bluffs tend to work....
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    edited April 2015
    Again beau your game defies logic. I just dont believe it.

    and how come david gets the credit for suggesting his flop and turn plays were great when i was the first one to say it. Seesh what does a girl have to do to get some respect

    30 Greatest Hits by Aretha Franklin
    https://itun.es/us/eGuP3


    He he. :cool:
  • DavidChan Posts: 1,208Pro
    Wendy,

    I think your analysis was very good. Not sure why you didn't get credit for it though.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    DavidChan said:
    Wendy,

    I think your analysis was very good. Not sure why you didn't get credit for it though.
    You were quoted damnit! Always an also ran. :-(.
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