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Flop set vs fav rec playr turn check raised



  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    I mean use the tools we are given.. If this guy raises 20 with AK but 35 or 40 with big pocket pairs then he cant have AK.. and only KK AA and maybe QQ but on the turn I might get KK and QQ to fold .. so Its better a check to get river value.. or bet fold..

    I bet I just didnt fold.. lol..

    some say can we get away from the hand?? and although I appreciate the thought I mean what hand can he check raise the turn with? Hes not doing it with KK or QQ.. especially when I have Aces in my range..

    relative hand strength my friends.. I just ignored it.. or pushed it down..

  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    one day i too will fold mid sets correctly for 200bbs. this was a cool hand hammah.
  • Arenzano Posts: 1,459Subscriber
    To say that you should have checked the turn is silly. No one is checking the turn. The mistake, based on the OP, is calling the check raise. Because he either has TT or AA -- based on what was provided in the first post.

    Having said that, I would guess that only the top .5% of the NLHE player pool folds to that raise in game.
  • FoldtoMyRaiseFoldtoMyRaise Posts: 312Subscriber
    edited May 2015
    It all starts preflop. So preflop he has a bet sizing tell that narrows his range and makes it much easier to range him during the hand. Would he size that big with TT? Based upon his description and his preflop sizing I would estimate his preflop range to be AA-QQ, AK. On the flop of T 9 6 his range equity is about 13% and your hand equity is 87%. A flop bet is good as there are a number of hands that we can bet and get value from. Once he calls the flop bet which of his range of hands continue on? A K , AA-QQ.

    After the turn card comes out, the board is T 9 6 A . Once the A hits the turn, his range equity is 22% and your hand equity is 78%. Combos are AA-3, KK-6, QQ-6, AdKd -1. He checks and you bet. Lets assume he is tricky and slowplays as you said and would check his entire flop continuation range on the turn. What range of hands are you getting value from that would call your turn bet? AdKd-1 combo. QQ and KK probably fold. What range of hands would check-call or check-raise us that have us dominated? AA-3 combos. What is his c/r range here? How often will he check raise a hand below top pair? Probably close to never as he does not preflop bet with KdQd, etc and the only preflop flush draw based upon preflop sizing tells is AdKd. Does he have any air below top pair in this check raising range? Probably not. So basically if his preflop raising sizes denies TT, we are left with AA and AdKd (even if we allow for TT, we are still have very poor equity against TT and AA). What is your hand equity vs his range equity if he has AA only? Your hand equity is 3 % and his hand equity is 97%. If we add in TT to AA to his c/r range the equities do not really change. Let's be optimstic and add in AdKd to his c/r range. I think his c/r range is AdKd and AA. Your hand equity is 22% and his range equity is 78% ( AdKd and AA).

    You bet 120 into 200 on the turn. Turn pot is now 320. He check raises to 320. Pot is now 640 If you call the pot will be 320+320+200= 840. He has 1000-35-65-320 = 580 behind. Are you getting the right price to call in terms of immediate odds with his turn c/r bet with an optimistic c/r range of AA, and AdKd ? No you do not have the right price to make a profitable call when you include AdKd in his c/r range when taking into consideration immediate odds. He is probably setting up and is certainly threatening a river shove. Are you getting the correct implied odds to call a river shove or for you to value bet on the river? How small of a river value bet do you think he would call after you bet flop, bet-call a turn raise, and bet the river if the river does not improve his hand or make the board scarier for him?. Does the amount that you value bet on the river allow you to profitably call the c/r on the turn given the effective stack sizes and how much will be left to win on the river that he will call (implied odds)? I think this is a fold on the turn to the c/r, even if it is hard to fold a flopped set. If you call the turn be prepared to fold on the river to a bet as I think a hand like AdKd will not bet a non-diamond river. Many players cannot fold a flopped set under many circumstances (for example unless 4 card flush comes out on the board, which is not possible in this case).
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    I am not sure why he wouldnt bet AKdd.. so I actually discount that from his range. He would check AK else..but I am not sure if he is floating that on the flop very often which is why I gave it a frequency of only 10%.. So that means in reality he probably only has 1 combo of AK

    So here is his range based on his preflop betting tell

    QQ - 3 (say he plays this way 50% of the time)
    KK- 5 (say he plays this way 80% of the time)
    AA- 3 (say he plays this way 100% of the time)
    AK- 1 (say he plays this way 10% of the time)

    So in reality on the turn I can only beat the 1 combo of AK the 8 combos of KK and QQ.. so then the question is if I bet can I get called by worse?? I think because he has so few combos of AK thats why the turn is a check. NOT a bet..

    If I bet and get raised he could have AK and I might fold the best hand. However if I check I am much more likely to get river value from QQ and KK if villain checks to me (sizing issue) and if he bets river I can make a decision to raise fold..

    So if I check and villain bets say 200 on river.. I think I could get called by AK if I raise it small. Say min click it back while still allowing me to fold if he ships..

    this is why I think checking the turn is actually a superior play to the bet fold..

  • FoldtoMyRaiseFoldtoMyRaise Posts: 312Subscriber
    edited May 2015
    I think that you can get value from AK but not KK and QQ on the turn. If you will get check raised by AA 100% of the time from this opponent on the turn, then you probably should check the turn and re-evaluate on the river because there are 3 combos of AA and 1 combo of AdKd. Will this villian slow play/check his entire turn continuing range on the river? If not, then on the river, a hand like AdKd will probably bet any diamond. He may not bet a board that pairs on the river (all except an A). So there are 8 diamonds river cards that we probably fold to a bet if a diamond comes and he bets. If the river card is not a diamond, a card that pairs the board, a Q, or a K, then if he checks you can probably put out a small value bet that might get called by AdKd, QQ, KK. If we value bet small on the river and get raised , then I think we have to fold (bet-fold).
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    edited May 2015
    I really discount him having any flush draws.. wouldnt he bet those on the flop?? or at worst check raise big on flop as semi bluff. So sure he could try to rep a diamond on the river but I just dont think he ever has a flush if he does..

    so we are back to losing to three combos of AA

    and trying to get money from the one combo of AK and the combos of QQ-KK that would call a river bet..

    what would have been his sickest line and quite frankly I dont think he is capable of is doing deep reverse hand reading..

    So say I bet flop and he calls with AA what can I have?? then I check turn when he hits a set.. on the river what can I have that would call his lead??? not much.. So he is better off doing what Bart did against the 10/20 player and still slowplaying the hand where he checks knowing I can thin value bet.. then make a huge check raise to make it look bluffy.. I am probably calling because this line makes no sense...

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Playing w same player and hes raised 35 w AQ os 99. So i guess he has more pairs and broadway cards in his range. But i still dont think he plays most ace broadway cards
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