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Broadway straight on paired board vs. loose passive guy

whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
5€/5€, effective stacks approx. 2,000€

Villain is a pretty weak recreational player, generally way to loose and pretty passive, call-happy postflop. Haven’t seen him bluff so far (maybe 2-3 hours). Doesn’t consider position and stack sizes all that much. Calls large preflop raises with hands that play poorly OOP deep, like dominated high card hands. Limp-calls with very strong hands as well. Only plays his own hand without considering what opponents are representing. Has been running hot by hitting and getting paid by other weak players with second best hands.
My impression was that he started to get annoyed by me a bit since I 3bet and barreled him multiple times before. I definitely had an aggressive image.

PREFLOP:
Villain (MP1) limps, Hero (MP2) raises to 25 with AsQd, BB calls (weak player with around 100 BB, no specific reads), Villain calls.

FLOP:
Pot is 80, Flop comes Ks Jc 7s
BB leads for 40ish, Villain calls, Hero calls

TURN:
Pot is 200, Turn is the beautiful Tc
BB bets 60, Villain raises to 170, Hero raises to 600, BB folds, Villain calls rather quickly, after 5-10 seconds maybe (didn’t look like a hard decision for him)

RIVER:
Pot is around 1460ish, River is Th
Villain checks
Hero??

Feedback on all streets appreciated. I’ll give my thoughts later.
Main question: what’s your river play? Especially reasoning and bet sizing?
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Comments

  • Fish Fryer Posts: 161Member
    Although perhaps a bit too passive, I am ok with checking back the river. I just don't think you are good there >50% of the time you get called. Based on your description of the V.... Aside from 2p hands and sets, which now beat you, what else really calls your turn raise and calls the river as well with a lesser hand? Maybe AK, maybe? If we bet and V shoves, we are now in an awkward spot. I check this river back.
  • LucasE Posts: 167Member
    What a weird spot.

    I'm not sure about your flop call - were you planning on peeling one off and hoping to pick up equity? A lot of times when a field player donks into you on a board like this it's going to be some top pair type of hand, so we're basically drawing to an ace, ten, or spade. I guess if you're closing the action and can evaluate the turn, the flop call is fine.

    Love the turn 3bet against a deepstack villain. If this guy is playing off the strength of his own hand, a raise here seems mandatory. You'll get action from all of his pair+FD hands, two pair, and sets. Bet sizing is my weakest area - pot is 600 after our call and we're making it 430 more to go, which seems like a great sizing. What do we think villain's range is going to be here? Is he the kind of passive guy that slow plays the flop and raises turn? I think his range is going to look like {KK,JJ,77,TT,AQ,KJ,JT,AKcc,}. I don't think a passive guy is going to raise the turn with a bare flush draw, but there are a ton of pair+draw or two pair+draw hand combos he can have here for either clubs or spades. Because we have the As villain can't have hands like AsTs or AsJs.

    So river bricks out the flush draws and boats up almost all of the rest of villain's range. All sets beat you and every two pair except KJ beats you. AQ is a chop.

    Unless I'm missing something big, I don't think betting here gets called by enough worse hands in villain's range, so I'm checking.
  • Mike Posts: 371Member
    wtf checking back?!?!?!

    im in the camp of get dem chips in. You have the best hand way more than 50% of the time when called. Villians range is heavily towards hands you beat. We can take out KK/JJ since he would likely raise these PF. If he had a hand like 77 he would likely raise flop or shove turn to "protect" against the 2 FDs.

    so we lose to KT/JT. 12 combos.
    We beat KJ,KQ,,89s, AKmaybe, spade combos with a T in them (AT,QT,T9,T8) Q9. probably more too

    There are way more hands that this villian will call with than FHs. Hopefully you didnt fold Wink (i know its checked to you)
  • Mike Posts: 371Member
    and dont like the flop peel.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Mike said

    wtf checking back?!?!?!

    im in the camp of get dem chips in. You have the best hand way more than 50% of the time when called. Villians range is heavily towards hands you beat. We can take out KK/JJ since he would likely raise these PF. If he had a hand like 77 he would likely raise flop or shove turn to "protect" against the 2 FDs.

    so we lose to KT/JT. 12 combos.
    We beat KJ,KQ,,89s, AKmaybe, spade combos with a T in them (AT,QT,T9,T8) Q9. probably more too

    There are way more hands that this villian will call with than FHs. Hopefully you didnt fold Wink (i know its checked to you)
    I am with Mike. value bet man.. even passive players that filled up will bet the river if they have the nuts.. He checked so I would go ahead and bet .. He most likely has a K like KQ, AK.. bb certainly has a K

    The only reason why I wouldnt bet the river would be if spr was less than 1 and I didnt want to call off if I got raised.. Thats a leak with my game so in big pots I tend to check back when pots get big.. But I still know what I SHOULD do and you should bet here to get called by a K...

    Wendy
  • LucasE Posts: 167Member
    Mike said

    wtf checking back?!?!?!

    im in the camp of get dem chips in. You have the best hand way more than 50% of the time when called. Villians range is heavily towards hands you beat. We can take out KK/JJ since he would likely raise these PF. If he had a hand like 77 he would likely raise flop or shove turn to "protect" against the 2 FDs.

    so we lose to KT/JT. 12 combos.
    We beat KJ,KQ,,89s, AKmaybe, spade combos with a T in them (AT,QT,T9,T8) Q9. probably more too

    There are way more hands that this villian will call with than FHs. Hopefully you didnt fold Wink (i know its checked to you)
    OP said villain limp/calls with very strong hands preflop, so KK and JJ can definitely be in his range as played preflop.

    Do you think a very passive player is going to raise KQ on the turn? I guess the one combo of KcQc he may raise. I guess villain can have some Tx of spade draws here as well.

    I definitely missed 89s, though - that's a hand that would play this way and check/call a river bet. But if villain is as passive as OP suggests, I don't think he's raising his pair+draw hands on the river.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    LucasE said
    OP said villain limp/calls with very strong hands preflop, so KK and JJ can definitely be in his range as played preflop.
    That's true, I have seen him do this before (maybe not with AA, but definitely with AK or JJ )
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Lucas

    Many bad players wait til a safe card on the turn to raise their made hands.. But I havent seen too many of these guys with monsters not try to "protect" by getting it in .. The fact he just called generally tells me he doesnt have a full house..

    wendy
  • WackabrewWackabrew Posts: 400Subscriber
    I agree with Mike on this. Checking back the river is never an option for me. I would bet around 750 and expect to be looked up almost always. If Villian shoves we're beat and can fold pretty easily

    On the other hand, I don't mind the flop peel. We are getting 4/1 directly on the 40, and we can play for stacks if we hit our hand. Otherwise there are a ton of cards on the turn that give us more equity, and we are closing the action
  • LucasE Posts: 167Member
    wendy weissman said

    Lucas

    Many bad players wait til a safe card on the turn to raise their made hands.. But I havent seen too many of these guys with monsters not try to "protect" by getting it in .. The fact he just called generally tells me he doesnt have a full house..

    wendy
    You're thinking most of the time villain will 4bet shove over our raise with sets? I can definitely see that happening. Maybe it's a regional thing - a lot of the passive people around my area will call the 3bet in this spot and wait for a 'safe' river card so they don't get sucked out on.

    Thinking about it more, have to make a pretty big assumption that villain will check the river when he does fill up. It's a bit weird because he may check and plan to raise us when we bet because of our aggression on the turn, but how often do people check a rivered full house instead of betting themselves.

    I think I'm being pretty well convinced that I was off in my range analysis - betting is looking better and better.
  • bobo1384 Posts: 145Subscriber
    whatsyourplay? said

    5€/5€, effective stacks approx. 2,000€

    Villain is a pretty weak recreational player, generally way to loose and pretty passive, call-happy postflop. Haven’t seen him bluff so far (maybe 2-3 hours). Doesn’t consider position and stack sizes all that much. Calls large preflop raises with hands that play poorly OOP deep, like dominated high card hands. Limp-calls with very strong hands as well. Only plays his own hand without considering what opponents are representing. Has been running hot by hitting and getting paid by other weak players with second best hands.
    My impression was that he started to get annoyed by me a bit since I 3bet and barreled him multiple times before. I definitely had an aggressive image.

    PREFLOP:
    Villain (MP1) limps, Hero (MP2) raises to 25 with AsQd, BB calls (weak player with around 100 BB, no specific reads), Villain calls.

    FLOP:
    Pot is 80, Flop comes Ks Jc 7s
    BB leads for 40ish, Villain calls, Hero calls

    TURN:
    Pot is 200, Turn is the beautiful Tc
    BB bets 60, Villain raises to 170, Hero raises to 600, BB folds, Villain calls rather quickly, after 5-10 seconds maybe (didn’t look like a hard decision for him)

    RIVER:
    Pot is around 1460ish, River is Th
    Villain checks
    Hero??

    Feedback on all streets appreciated. I’ll give my thoughts later.
    Main question: what’s your river play? Especially reasoning and bet sizing?
    I think flop,turn are fine. My immediate question is if he would raise sets immeadiately or not? My second question is if he would do this with QT and raise the turn thinking pair plus OESD is super strong? Is he the type of player where his sets/twopairs improve to a house, does he immeadiately check thinking he's being tricky and slow playing?

    I think villain is raising the turn with sets,two pair, 89,9T, Axcc,Qxcc, Q9, Txss

    The first think I think of on the river check is that it is a scare card/missed his draws. Then I think of the players who, after being aggressive on the previous street, hit their flush, make their straight, they immeadiately check thinking that this completely disguises their hand. I think if he had a set on the turn he would surely get it in though so this is interesting.

    I think for the river for his range i'm going to give him all possible houses/quads, most 89, and some Tx,. I think KJ is in his range as well as busted draws, I also think we dont have to put every full house in his range but right now im just considering all possible hands I dont think he is folding.

    there are 28 combos of quads/houses and about 16 combos of Tx and 89. So if we shoved, about 63% of the time we get called and lose 1355 and 37% of the time we get called and win 2700. After multiply and some adding, it shows that a shove is instantly profitable. Adding in more than 16 combos of hands we beat makes this more profitable, and taking away combos of hands that crush our soul also make this more profitable. I dont take into account folds because while it affects max value, it doesnt affect the shove being overall profitable.

    based on that im never checking, as to whether I shove bet/call or bet/fold. Bet/fold will get the value from the KJ or some one pair he might not call a shove with, but I dont know based on the description of villain that he wouldnt shove over a bet with a T thinking it was for value.

    TL;DR

    never checking, as played I probably shove.
  • bobo1384 Posts: 145Subscriber
    also, did anyone else see 9T is double guttered on the flop?
  • Mike Posts: 371Member
    bobo,

    Your math is wrong. Dont include the pot size in the equation since we can check back and win the pot. To do the math on the value bet we are getting 1/1 and he is getting the odds.
  • bobo1384 Posts: 145Subscriber
    my math is based just on shoving with hands that he isnt folding, and i'm pretty sure money in the pot needs to be included in that

    %weWin(pot+called shove) - %weLose(shove)

    that should be whether or not a shove is profitable if he is never folding.
  • Mike Posts: 371Member
    say the pot is 100. and you have 100 left effective.

    checked to you... you can check back and win the 100. or you can bet and win an EXTRA 100. you are not betting 100 to win 200 since the money is already in the pot. if you are good 40% of the time you bet 100 on the river you are losing money long run.

    trust me... im like super smart and stuff.
  • bobo1384 Posts: 145Subscriber
    yeah ii fouled it up
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    LucasE said
    wendy weissman said

    Lucas

    Many bad players wait til a safe card on the turn to raise their made hands.. But I havent seen too many of these guys with monsters not try to "protect" by getting it in .. The fact he just called generally tells me he doesnt have a full house..

    wendy
    You're thinking most of the time villain will 4bet shove over our raise with sets? I can definitely see that happening. Maybe it's a regional thing - a lot of the passive people around my area will call the 3bet in this spot and wait for a 'safe' river card so they don't get sucked out on.

    Thinking about it more, have to make a pretty big assumption that villain will check the river when he does fill up. It's a bit weird because he may check and plan to raise us when we bet because of our aggression on the turn, but how often do people check a rivered full house instead of betting themselves.

    I think I'm being pretty well convinced that I was off in my range analysis - betting is looking better and better.
    Eactly Lucas... Even if he didnt shove turn with a set I see a lead here on river when villain fills up almost 100% of the time. Remember, they see the player pool check back the river all the time .. How often is their opponent going to check back the river as well? Are they worried about hero having a bigger set? They would have to be very very passive to take this line. And if they are this passive I doubt they are raising the river as a check raise.. So just go ahead and bet.. I might bet a bit smaller tho.. just to make sure I get called by a K..

    ww
  • bobo1384 Posts: 145Subscriber
    Mike said

    say the pot is 100. and you have 100 left effective.

    checked to you... you can check back and win the 100. or you can bet and win an EXTRA 100. you are not betting 100 to win 200 since the money is already in the pot. if you are good 40% of the time you bet 100 on the river you are losing money long run.

    trust me... im like super smart and stuff.
    EV(shove) = f * p + (1-f) * [e * (p+s) + (1-e) * (-s)]
    f = percentage that your opponent folds
    p = potsize before any action at this street
    e = the probability that you will win if you get called
    s = the effective stacksize before any action at this street

    so this formula is wrong?
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    I am not sure if villain would raise a set on the flop, but I can imagine that he wouldn't raise it on the turn, since now two different straights are possible, so he doesn't have the nuts anymore. And I am confident that he wouldn't raise pair+draw at any street, since he has no concept of fold equity vs. showdown equity. He basically only knows what showdown equity is.

    Also, I don't know how often he would check a full house on the river. But it is conceivable, since he generally seems to have the mentality of "If this aggro dude constantly fires into me, let him coming"
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    bobo1384 said

    EV(shove) = f * p + (1-f) * [e * (p+s) + (1-e) * (-s)]
    f = percentage that your opponent folds
    p = potsize before any action at this street
    e = the probability that you will win if you get called
    s = the effective stacksize before any action at this street

    so this formula is wrong?
    The potsize before you bet is irrelevant. Your betsizing is also irrelevant (but it affects the % you'll get called of course).

    The only thing that matters is if you are good when called more or less than 50%.
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