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5-5 PLO Super Deep River Decision 1000bb

PocketAceTrader782 Posts: 439Subscriber
5-5 PLO at Horseshoe Hammond

This is a hand I saw. We will look at it from Hero's perspective. I am not in the hand.

$5000 effective. V is one of the best PLO players in the city of Chicago and one of my good friends. He knows Hero is decent in the game. V knows H's 3 betting range is pretty limited to suited run downs and AAxx

Hero is on the btn with AAQ4 with nut diamonds.

V opens to $20 from UTG. Several callers in between. Hero bets pot to $150. UTG calls. Mid pos player calls.

Pot $450. Flop Q88 two diamonds. It gets checked to hero who bets $450. V calls. Other guy folds.

Pot $1350. Turn off suit A

Gets checked to Hero who bets $1350. V calls

Pot $4050. River is an 8 for a final board of Q88A8

V leads all in for $3050.

Hero ?


Carmine

Comments

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    throw up..

    throw up...

    I just cant see villain doing this with anything other than an 8.. If I had a rundown hand that had middle suited cards like 789T or J9T8 all are likely in villains calling range..

    other than some weird leveling thing that villain knows hero might fold this river I just dont think villain ever has a value range where he is doing this.. especially if villain knows hero doesnt 3 bet without AA or a broadway rundown hand..

    do you remember the suits??? that can help a little with the distribution of the 8 rundown hands possible.. especially against the Q and the A..

    ie QJT8 say double suited is more likely then a rainbow rundown to call for a threebet..
  • TerpHimselfTerpHimself Posts: 295Subscriber
    edited May 2015
    The one thing that makes me wonder about this hand is that if he has an 8, and ranges us with AA hands or rundowns, I'm wondering why he would pile the river.

    3K obviously makes plenty of sense given the pot size. But if he checks, AA is going to bet. Rundowns will not call shove, but they may take a stab at the pot a small amount of the time? We have a Q, so we block QQ, and why wouldn't he value-target that type of hand as well (say we could have KQQJ).

    Really, he's giving us a chance to wiggle off the hook with the second nuts. It's such a huge amount for live play. He knows that we're not a total drooler, who can figure out relative hand strength. His range is pure nuts or air, and we've heavily weighted towards not having an 8.

    However, wtf does this guy have other than an 8? Any JT9 on the flop shouldn't be continuing after the turn, and really, an un-full 8 is in a tough spot. I guess the bet is OK if he doesn't think there is any way we can fold AA/will not value bet QQ on the river

    This is an absolute sicko spot, but I think it's a fold. His "value" bet is not a good one, and if he's truly the best player in the city, he can make more $ with a check ship line on the river. He's folding out way too much with a bet like that. But it's a suicide mission to try and fold out anything that takes a 3B/B/B line to the river.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    Hes just afraid too many hands would get checked down.
  • High__Rolla Posts: 775Subscriber
    This is a fold IMO. Let's look at the hands V can have on the river:

    Air - I don't think one of the best Chicago PLO players ever arrives to this river with a FD, JT9x, KKxx, etc. So I disregard.

    QQxx - The flop and turn line make sense this deep with this hand. His perceived range for Hero based on the 3bet and line taken is AAxx and 8xxxx. Even if he thinks Hero has only AAxx, he has to not only turn the 2nd boat into a bluff, but also expect Hero to fold the top boat. I'm very skeptical.

    8xxx - The preflop and flop lines make sense. OTT, I would expect him to fold most of his eights that hadn't already filled up, but he can still have Q8xx and A8xx. OTR with the case 8, he leads huge reading Hero for AAxx and expecting Hero to often call off.

    If we assume V only plays the top 15% of hands preflop, counting in PPT shows there are a lot more hands containing the case 8 than QQ.


    15%:8h!QQ 785(0.29%)

    15%:QQ!8h 432 (0.16%)

  • PocketAceTrader782 Posts: 439Subscriber
    edited May 2015
    . Hammah-- In Hero's hand: Hero had red aces with the 4 of diamonds. He had a black Q but not sure which suit. 8 of spades was the 8 that was not on the board. The A on the turn did not bring in any back door draws. I believe it was the As.

    Carmine
  • reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,145Subscriber
    Such a sicko hand... I think the only 8 that villain gets to the river with is A8xx and Q8xx, and the river is a puke fold. Suicide for villain to turn QQxx into a bluff when an 8 dangler is in hero's range.
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    To those questioning why would 8xxx lead river when you could check and get the same results, I think the villain could be thinking that if he leads 8xxx, then he could also lead his bluffs.

    I actually think this is a fold despite what I said about him being able to bluff. Reason being, we block pretty much all hands that might arrive to the river with air since we block Qxxx, nut flush draws, Axxx. Pretty much the only air he can have are specific rundown combos of wraps plus non-nut flush draws that also do not contain an 8. Like maybe KJT9dd. But at that point, when you start making combos of possible bluffs, there's just way too many 8's in his range.

    I also wonder too, if he's a top PLO player, if maybe some of those wrap type hands might try to bluff raise the flop against an obvious AAxx when deep. I am not a top level PLO player, but can't he put a lot of pressure on the hero and rep QQ or 8xxx? It seems like a lot of hands that flat both the flop and turn will be 8xxx. Very interesting hand though.
  • reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,145Subscriber
    I don't think villain can flat the turn with a naked 8. I think villain can flat the flop, but when the turn is the A, and AAxx is such a HUGE part of hero's pre-flop 3-betting range, I think he only peels with A8xx and Q8xx, with the intention of check/folding river.
  • PocketAceTrader782 Posts: 439Subscriber
    Spoiler:
    One thing I didn't mention was that V thought for a long time on the turn before calling. On the river, Hero thought for I think about 10 minutes. He called. V Had QJT8 dbl suited with a JT of diamonds.
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    i don't think this spot is even remotely close at all. wouldn't dream of calling ever. hero's range is well-protected by having quads himself
  • khalwatkhalwat Posts: 997Subscriber
    There's just no way Villain is donking the river like that without quads imo. Especially if he's a decent player, and has a good idea what Hero's range is in this spot.

    I actually don't like hero's bet sizing on the turn, we do want worse to call, and we have a visibly nutted range.

    I don't like the villain's lead either, I think we can expect Hero to bet the river a lot given his turn sizing, and he's likely to call it off if we c/r ship river for not much more.
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    Aesah said:
    i don't think this spot is even remotely close at all. wouldn't dream of calling ever. hero's range is well-protected by having quads himself
    If you're the villain with Q8XX, do you x/c turn? If you do x/c turn, do you donk jam river or x/c? I know it's pretty villain dependent, but what player types might change your decision? (Standard tag, lagtard, rec players, nits?)
  • High__Rolla Posts: 775Subscriber
    edited May 2015
    DrGambol said:

    If you're the villain with Q8XX, do you x/c turn? If you do x/c turn, do you donk jam river or x/c? I know it's pretty villain dependent, but what player types might change your decision? (Standard tag, lagtard, rec players, nits?)
    Several ITT have advocated for a c/r OTR by V and I don't see why. If I am V, I want to put my opponent (who I read for the 2nd nuts mostly) to one decision only. Most PLO players cannot fold AAxx here even when, as this thread shows, it should be obvious you are beat. Hero 3bet and then hit his gin card OTT - most PLO players are so attached by the river they will not fold. Rarely in PLO do we get a spot for an opponent to pay off for 600 BB's, but this is it IMO.

    However, I feel if V c/r the river he might as well scream I have Quads. I also don't see much benefit to trying to get Hero to value own himself (or bluff) with less than AAxx when AAxx is such a big part of his range.

  • khalwatkhalwat Posts: 997Subscriber
    High__Rolla said:


    Several ITT have advocated for a c/r OTR by V and I don't see why. If I am V, I want to put my opponent (who I read for the 2nd nuts mostly) to one decision only. Most PLO players cannot fold AAxx here even when, as this thread shows, it should be obvious you are beat. Hero 3bet and then hit his gin card OTT - most PLO players are so attached by the river they will not fold. Rarely in PLO do we get a spot for an opponent to pay off for 600 BB's, but this is it IMO.

    However, I feel if V c/r the river he might as well scream I have Quads. I also don't see much benefit to trying to get Hero to value own himself (or bluff) with less than AAxx when AAxx is such a big part of his range.

    The reason I suggested this line is that the villain looks so INSANELY strong by donk shipping that river. Seriously, what else is he ever going to take that line with?

    The reason so many people are advocating a river fold based on this action shows how incredibly strong the line looks.

    That's why I was suggesting a check/raise: if you check, the Hero will absolutely be value betting hands that they might not call a donk jam with.

    Even if they fold to the c/r (which they may not, depending on the pot odds they are being offered, and their absolute hand strength), at least you get one bet out of them. If you just donk ship the river, the line looks so incredibly strong that I think you're folding out a lot of hands that you want to make money from.
  • High__Rolla Posts: 775Subscriber
    ^ are we sure Hero will value bet here when checked to? What worse hands does Hero expect a top-notch PLO player to make it to the river and call with? Maybe QQxx, but will a top-notch PLO player even call with that hand? I think V finds a fold with QQxx. If that's the case, Hero cannot value bet here.
  • khalwatkhalwat Posts: 997Subscriber
    edited May 2015
    High__Rolla said:
    ^ are we sure Hero will value bet here when checked to? What worse hands does Hero expect a top-notch PLO player to make it to the river and call with? Maybe QQxx, but will a top-notch PLO player even call with that hand? I think V finds a fold with QQxx. If that's the case, Hero cannot value bet here.
    I think hero will bet with more hands than he'll call villain's jam with. Which would then make it more profitable to check. If we think hero will call with more hands then he'll value bet, then obviously a river donk bet by villain is better.

    Just based on Hero's action preflop, on the flop, and his turn-sized pot bet, I think there's very little chance he checks back the river with the range of hands that he takes these actions with on the flop and especially the turn. If he's a good player, as has been described, he should be value betting that river with a wider range of hands than he'll call a donk jam with.

    That's making some assumptions about him as a player, obv.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    If we are in hero's shoes and V checks to us on the river , are we value betting against a player described as very good ? Not sure the range of worse hands we can get value from. Does QQ call when we should have at least AAA88 based on the action? And I can't see KK calling a river bet ever (how can he get to the river anyway except with a super stubborn KK8x type hand ?)

    On the other hand , the villain in this hand did call a psb of 270 BBs drawing to 2 outs.

    One consideration that I'm not sure has been mentioned is to consider not 3 betting pre with ok aces this deep effective. To a good player your hand is instantly half open and it is tough to play deep plo without any deception....especially vs a guy with a lot of tools in his bag.
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    edited May 2015
    chilidog said:


    On the other hand , the villain in this hand did call a psb of 270 BBs drawing to 2 outs.
    This is results oriented and furthermore, if you want to go down that road using the same metric, Hero made a flop PSB of 90bb drawing to 2 outs, then called a river bet of 1010bb drawing to 0 outs?
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    DrGambol said:
    Aesah said:
    i don't think this spot is even remotely close at all. wouldn't dream of calling ever. hero's range is well-protected by having quads himself
    If you're the villain with Q8XX, do you x/c turn? If you do x/c turn, do you donk jam river or x/c? I know it's pretty villain dependent, but what player types might change your decision? (Standard tag, lagtard, rec players, nits?)
    I would lean towards betting river because I don't really think most people will valuebet less than quads here.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Aesah said:
    chilidog said:


    On the other hand , the villain in this hand did call a psb of 270 BBs drawing to 2 outs.
    This is results oriented and furthermore, if you want to go down that road using the same metric, Hero made a flop PSB of 90bb drawing to 2 outs, then called a river bet of 1010bb drawing to 0 outs?
    True , but ranges become more defined on later streets based on the action.

    And also : c'mon Don , after the river card hits the felt , there is no more drawing, so drawing to 0 outs on the river is an oxymoron. Or did you mean it sarcastically?
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