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PLO - Board texture shift on river

BradleyT Posts: 621SubscriberProfessional
Saturday $1/2-5 PLO game. Pretty good lineup of players today. I'd rate this table about a 9.1 and that's even with the best PLO player in our city sitting to my left...

Anyway on to the hand.

About 5 limps to me and I limp on the button with A J J 8 SB completes, BB completes for $5.

Flop ($40) K Q 6
Checks around to me (very surprising) and I'm never bluffing 8 other players out of the hand so I check hoping for a T, club, J to evaluate.

Turn ($40) K Q 6 T
Check, Check, V1 leads out for $10 - never the nuts. V2 raises to $25 - haven't played with him but 95% sure he'd pot it with the nuts. It gets to me and I pot it to $125. V1 thinks for a little bit and calls, V2 folds.

River ($310) K Q 6 T 4
After about 5 seconds villain says, "I'm all-in" and pushes in $280 - I cover by a little bit.

Villain is definitely capable of trying to bluff anyone in this spot. He's especially capable of trying to bluff me since he views me as the tightest player at the table.

What I thought of at the time was, if he knows I'm capable of folding, he'd probably bet an amount I'm more likely to call with his value hands. And if he had a flush draw on the turn he probably wouldn't have tried to set his own price from EP, he'd most likely check/call.

Anything else we should consider?

Comments

  • High__Rolla Posts: 765Subscriber
    Flip a coin here and decide. You have to be good here >32% to call.

    If V1 had the nuts OTT, he could have shipped in after your raise, whereas by just calling he invites V2 to tag along. Thus, I heavily discount any straights from his range. He probably reads Hero for AJxx OTT. Yes, there is the advanced PLO play of calling with the nut straight and potting any card that changes the nuts on the next street, but I don't think that is what he is doing.

    So, he calls OTT mostly with flush and/or FH draws, especially considering his weak lead and your blockers. One draw hits OTR and one misses, so its basically a guessing game to determine if he is bluffing. If half his range was FDs and the other half FHDs, then you could call OTR, but I'm not sure he always bluffs the river when he misses. So, its much closer here.
  • reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,145Subscriber
    I don't think many PLO players at this level are sophisticated enough to turn a set or turned straight into a bluff on the this river where the backdoor flush comes in. You don't look like you're gonna fold river when you pot the turn. I think villain has the flush more than 2 out of 3 times here. Sorry, sucks, but it is what it is.

    Now, if villain is highly sophisticated and knows your playing tendencies, then that's different. You might have to consider a call. But even then, his line looks so much like a flush, I think it's still a fold.
  • PocketAceTrader782 Posts: 439Subscriber
    edited May 2015
    Well, it definitely helped here that you remembered all the suits for your hand and the distribution of the suits on the board.

    You have the J here which I think is very important. Therefore I think it's very unlikely that he had a nut stright on the river with the nut flush draw. He would specially have to have a hand like A J× with spades in his hand. Combine that with the small turn lead out, and the flat call to your raise on the turn, I think that particular hand I think is out.

    I think a likely holding could be J9 with two other spades, that are not nut spades. He is making a small bet on the turn to "see where he was at" . He gets raised and says to himself "ohh shit, I guess I gotta hit my draw now" and then calls. He hits his draw and moves in. Now I know based on the analysis I gave that he usually doesn't have the nut flush, but since he has less then a lot sized bet left, I think he is just going with his small flush. Probably a 9 high flush.

    Another possible hand is a set of T's that he ran into on the turn that had spades in the hand.

    Therefore, I would fold

    Carmine

  • BradleyT Posts: 621SubscriberProfessional
    High__Rolla said:
    So, he calls OTT mostly with flush and/or FH draws, especially considering his weak lead and your blockers. One draw hits OTR and one misses, so its basically a guessing game to determine if he is bluffing. If half his range was FDs and the other half FHDs, then you could call OTR, but I'm not sure he always bluffs the river when he misses. So, its much closer here.
    Well like I said this guy does have bluffs in his range vs. nearly everyone except maybe the guy to my left. And especially vs. me since he often needles me for being the tightest player in the PLO game.

    Spoiler:
    I tank for a while, stack up calling chips, imagine Don Ding telling me to "follow my heart" and then push the chips over the line. If he'd bet less than pot I was planning on folding as I figured that was more value-y looking.

    I hear a loud exhale followed by, "good call......Chip runner!" and drag in the pot
    by 1Dusty
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    edited May 2015
    given your logic it definitely seems like a call especially given the bet sizing tells (bets big for bluff, small for value), although like others said against an unknown perhaps i'd lean towards a fold
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