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BigO

What percent of the time will the low come in by the river? How much does this vary by the number of players who enter the pot who you know have 2low cards minimum?

Comments

  • reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,145Subscriber
    I'm not sure that "other player's cards" factor in too much on whether or not a low comes in.

    I know there are 32 low cards and only 20 high cards in the deck. Of course, you need three of them for a qualifying low...it's somewhere around 40%. I'm sure someone will give the exact percentage. My main contribution is that is nominally at best related to what you suspect are the holdings of other players in the hand.
  • eyehaityou Posts: 292Member
    closer to 60% there will be a low possible on the river. Around 24% your low will be live with two low cards in your hand, ie not counterfeit. % goes up with counterfeit protection (a23 vs a2). Don't take that as gospel. I'm sure a smart person will correct me shortly.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,921AdministratorLeadPro
    Eye--I tried to look this up briefly today but I am consistently battling the Great Firewall of China and Google blocking. 60 percent was the figure I remember as well.

    Bart
  • Bigstout17 Posts: 7Subscriber
    I was thinking around 60% but once a low card comes (2c) then you lose the other 2's as lows. I was trying to find out how profitable it becomes to 3bet a hand such as QQKT9 as when there are 3 players who enter that only play hands with an A and another wheel card or better.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,921AdministratorLeadPro
    edited May 2015
    I would strongly avoid playing hands like this and three betting them in big O. The fact that everyone has 5 cards in their hand means that on any two low (including ace hi) board they are going to be a monster favorite against your hand. The fact that you hold the cards that you want to flop is not a good situation for you. You will also win a small pot when you fit well but will be often getting free rolled for your entire stack when you hold top set or top two.

    There are 20 cards you want to see (9-k). You hold 5 of them. You have about .3 chance (15/47) of one coming per card.

    For the flop I would express this as reciprocal of (.7)(.7)= .51 (flopping at least one of the 15)

    x

    (.3)

    So about 15 percent. Not a very good proposition.
  • eyehaityou Posts: 292Member
    I don't ever three bet high only hands, and I'm told I'm no nit. I do flat with those hands and even raise them occasionally if I'm playing against someone who's range I can play off of or outplay post flop. It's easy to get into bad spots getting freerolled though like Bart said.
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