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Better made hand better draw?

AJoff Posts: 546Subscriber
This is a hand from 2/2 plo at MD Live. This isn't super relevant, but Live uses a must move system and this is the main game.

Player profiles:
BB- hero has a tight solid image. Started off at the table very card dead and a few villains have vocally pointed out that I have played very few hands and not gotten involved post flop. I have taken a decent amount of money from the game this year, but only the villain to my immediate left knows this. $550 stack.

Straddle - longtime reg, generally well respected and well liked. Plays too many hands, calls too many bets, but is probably at least a slight winner in the game. $1000 to $1200 stack

UTG + 1 young Asian. He was next to me on the list and moved with me all night. Has told me multiple times that he played professionally in Hammond Indiana, but I don't really believe him. I recently moved from Chicago and put a ton of hours into that casino without ever seeing him. He described the game there accurately, but somehow thought it was a disadvantage that villains generally don't believe you when you bet the exact value of your hand. He raises often pre and likes to make lots of small bets post. He will occasionally get stuck overplaying marginal hands post, be he definitely has a fold button. $500 stack

UTG+2 - very passive player, plays to many hands. Sat next to me at the previous table and liked to show me when he made obvious folds with marginal holdings. $275 ish stack.

Cut - middle aged with guy. Seems fun and friendly, most of the regs recognize him. Has helped the dealer twice in hands he wasn't involved in. Has a massive tower of red chips, 2k+.

Action: UTG +1 raises to $20 (everyone knows it should be $19, but we have agreed to not make the dealer make change).

+2 and cut call, I call with KsQQJs, straddle calls.

Flop $102: KTs5s

I check, checked to cut, he bets $80. This is intentionally less than full pot, which is unusual on a flop this wet

Hero?

Comments

  • BradleyT Posts: 621SubscriberProfessional
    Only 7 for sure outs (AAAA 999) that can lose to FH or flush redraws.
    Bunch of people still left to act.
    Not a hand I'm excited about calling or potting.

    Curious to hear what you like about this situation?
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    I'm certainly not raising (we want dominated flush draws in) and not folding so that leaves calling. (With a fold if it is raised and called behind us)

    Also , an intentional bet less than pot size in a multi way field can mean different things depending on the player. Some are trying to induce action (calls or raises), and some can be betting less cuz their hand strength is directly correlated (ie not the nuts / nut draw).

    Depending on the action behind us after a flop call , I'm bet/folding when we make our flush , and definitely betting our straight cards (and probably a Q also). In small plo games , there is not a big need for deception when we have strong hands.
  • High__Rolla Posts: 765Subscriber
    Unless you know tendencies, I would interpret the less than pot bet in position by Cut as a stab at the pot or medium strength hand mostly. Your hand is way too strong to fold.

    So, I'd raise pot here. It would be nice if you were a little shallower to just GII or deeper to leave play OTT, but you can just open ship almost any turn if called. This raise may win the 90BB pot now. It also has the benefit of cleaning up some of your outs, namely your spades, queens, and/or kings, but preventing one of the field callers from peeling with the naked NFD, weak straight draw, and/or two pair.

    Heads up, you have >45% equity against set and are a favorite over KT. The only hands your really fear a set+NFD and you have no reason to believe these are out there based on the action so far. You also don't want it to get multi-way vs a set and a NFD, but again have no reason to believe this will happen so far.

    By raising you may even get someone to fold KT or 55, which is a good result for you. Or, you can get called by a hand like AQJ or straight+FD that they think is drawing live. Basically, your hand can function as either a made hand or a strong draw depending on what you are up against.

    I don't like calling because you will invite others along to take away outs and you will be OOP on the turn with one PSB left. This will force you to play a guessing game unless you hit one of your six nut outs.
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