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Flopped two pair in a limped pot

Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
1/3 300 cap game at Coushatta. Game has been pretty loose/passive on the whole, lots of limped pots and raised pots with 3-5 callers. Villian is a middle aged white male who is playing tighter and more aggressively than the table. My instinct is that he's at least a decent player who doesn't do anything too goofy, although I haven't seen enough hands to know this for certain. In general, I expect him to at like a solid, predictable but somewhat unknown low-stakes player.

I haven't seen him, or anyone else on the table besides myself, make many major bluffs. I haven't had to show any significant bluffs, and my image is solidly winning.

Stacks - 350 Effective

PRE-FLOP - Villian limps UTG+1, several more limps, Hero completes SB with QcJd, BB checks.

FLOP - POT ~20 - QsJh6s. Hero leads for 15. BB folds. Villian raises to 50. Folds back to Hero.

This is a pretty standard spot, but I'm trying to figure out what the best general approach is in a situation ripe for a semi-bluff, but against a player that would semi-bluff with a pretty low frequency.

Comments

  • bobo1384 Posts: 145Subscriber
    I would 3bet the flop to $180 with the intention of calling it off.

    Villain can only have 5 combos that can beat you now, his range is so heavily weighted towards one pair hands and combo draws. Even if you dont think he'd semi bluff here, the hands that beat you are just too few to consider slowing down.
  • Mike Posts: 371Member
    Get dat money in. Is this the coushatta at lake Charles? If I is I've played there before and would prob get in any Q in those games.
  • jmc Posts: 58Member
    bobo1384 said

    I would 3bet the flop to $180 with the intention of calling it off.

    Villain can only have 5 combos that can beat you now, his range is so heavily weighted towards one pair hands and combo draws. Even if you dont think he'd semi bluff here, the hands that beat you are just too few to consider slowing down.
    Mike said

    Get dat money in. Is this the coushatta at lake Charles? If I is I've played there before and would prob get in any Q in those games.
    Tyrith's read is that villain is probably not semi-bluffing with a high frequency. My guess is that he probably has something like:
    66, QJ, AsTs, AsJs, AsKs, KsTs

    With a hand like A2s-A9s, I'd expect that the villain would elect to call and see if he can drag some other players into the pot, as opposed to raising to "protect" and drive everyone else out of the pot.

    Given that he's aggro, I'd expect him to raise w/ JJ/QQ preflop, so I'm discounting those hands.

    Against that above range, we're 42% or so. Unless we're really sure villain is raising a ton more draws and some worse hands (AQ?), we're not exactly getting a ton of money into the pot as a huge favorite.

    (against 66, QJ, As*s,KsTs, KsJs we are 52%)
    (against 66, QJ and any Ax or Kx flush draw we are 55%)

    That said, I'm not a fan of 3betting the flop, but I'm not entirely sure how to proceed for the rest of the hand. Certainly a tricky spot being OOP.

    check/call, check/call - pray for a chop? fold if another spade rolls off and he bets?
    check/call, check/fold?
  • BigOwl Posts: 80Member
    I don't think you can include hands like AKs in his range in a limped pot without some reads we don't have. Even guys that don't semi bluff much will still raise with monster draws like 9Tss. I call and play the turn. These spots are so read dependent that it's hard to make decisions on a forum.
  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    BigOwl said

    I don't think you can include hands like AKs in his range in a limped pot without some reads we don't have. Even guys that don't semi bluff much will still raise with monster draws like 9Tss. I call and play the turn. These spots are so read dependent that it's hard to make decisions on a forum.
    And this was my problem at the table. If my opponent is only going to have 66, QJ, or T9ss I am in terrible shape here. But if he's willing to make this play with KQo, for example, then I need to take a radically different approach. I didn't have enough information (or wasn't good enough to building a legitimate range for my opponent, more likely) to make that call here, so I kind of got lost in the hand. But these situations will come up relatively early in sessions, when we don't always have great data, so I figured I'd get some outside opinions.
  • BigOwl Posts: 80Member
    Yeah hands come up a lot where we haven't seen villain's range for a situation. Since we have a really strong hand and its only 35 to call and see a turn I like making the call and seeing where we go. If turn is a brick and he bombs it I likely give up
  • bobo1384 Posts: 145Subscriber
    I dont think you can discount all combos of AQ/KQ from his range.
  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    bobo1384 said

    I dont think you can discount all combos of AQ/KQ from his range.
    The more I think about it, the more I think this is true. His line especially seems reasonable for KQo. In which case the call, check/evaluate sizing line makes sense, since I doubt he's going to blast the turn for 100 with just top pair.
  • bobo1384 Posts: 145Subscriber
    With so many scare cards to our hand (A,K,9,8,6,any spade) I would rather raise flop now while we are ahead of his range than play a guessing game later when we are out of position.
  • Would villain ever play AA/KK like this? i.e. limp UTG with the intention of trying a limp re-raise, and then raise flop?

    Reads are going to help here, but at a low limit table, I think a reasonable range includes bottom set, QJ, maybe a few combos of Q6s and J6s, AQ, KQ, plus the combo draws. Throw in one or two combos of AA/KK that were failed limp-reraises, and I think this is a snap 3-bet bc you need to charge draws/get it in with slight edge against them AND get value from all of the worse two-pair hands and even one pair hands that will call. I have seen plenty of villains at lower stakes snap you off with a poorly played AA/KK here, as well as call with AQ/KQ type hands, since you "must have a flush draw"

    Your read on the villain was pretty vague in the OP, so obviously you have more info than we do about whether this range is reasonable, but I'm still happily getting it in here.

    tl;dr - easy 3-bet for value, raise now to ~170 (and call off) to prevent scare cards from coming to prevent villain from paying you off (as stated above).
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