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Fold Flopped Nuts?

As I continue through this variance abyss (hoping my bankroll survives), I was wondering if this is one of the spots where folding the nuts is best.

Hero: Neutral image as the table just started about an orbit ago.
Villain 1: Holdem Player who was convinced to come try PLO.
Villain 2: Recreational player who isn't too great but isn't really ever bluffing in this spot.

$1/$2/$5 $445 Effective
Hero overlimps on the BTN over 4 limpers with K Q 8 9 .
7 ways to the flop.

Flop: T J A ($35)

SB checks. V1 bets $35 with 15 left. V2 raises to $100. Folds to Hero who calls.
Folds to V1 who calls with his last 15.

I'm pretty certain V2 always has the nuts here and isn't doing an iso or anything of that nature especially 7 ways to the flop.

Thoughts on folding instead?
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Comments

  • reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,145Subscriber
    No way I'm folding there. If call and ship or call off on all safe turns.
  • High__Rolla Posts: 775Subscriber
    I don’t think you are deep enough to consider folding here. If you think V2 is never folding on a later street, then you can just GII. If you can use you position on a later street to rep a nut-changing card, then you could call. Since you only would have just over a PSB left on the turn, I think you can GII on the flop.

    Looking at the combos in Propokertools, there is only a ~22% chance he has both the nuts and a redraw. (I am ignoring BDFD and top set and assuming he only plays the top 50% of hands preflop. Also, there is a chance that he has something other than KQ, such as set+NFD.)

    50%:KQ – 5187 combos
    50%:KQ:hh – 879 combos
    50%:KQ!hh with two pair – 216 combos
    50%:KQ!hh with bottom / middle set – 54 combos
    1149 / 5187 = 22%
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    edited May 2015
    ^ it's better to just calculate equity vs. a range, so it basically comes down to a math problem depending on V2's preflop range. Calling is better too if he can fold on scare cards.
  • High__Rolla Posts: 775Subscriber
    edited May 2015
    Aesah said:
    ^ it's better to just calculate equity vs. a range, so it basically comes down to a math problem depending on V2's preflop range. Calling is better too if he can fold on scare cards.
    Sure, I wasn't trying to run an expected value calculation. Was just trying to see how likely it is he has a redraw if the read is correct that he flopped the nuts. Maybe later I'll try to run the EV calc.
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    ah i didn't mean to imply you should do more work- i only mentioned it because it's actually easier than what you did
  • YoungGrinder Posts: 210Subscriber
    I ended up calling flop and folding on a A turn. About the worst card in the deck. He indeed has hearts and the flopped nuts. Thanks for the insight that calling flop or shipping is best - NOT folding.
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