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PLO - At the River with Q-High

BradleyT Posts: 621SubscriberProfessional
$1/2 PLO/PLO8 round by round. This is a weekly casino game that runs every Thursday and I probably have 500 hours played with villain. I'd classify him as spewy/bluffy and he'd classify me as nitty. He's not afraid to rep a scare card - say a flush card comes when it's obvious his opponent has a straight/set. So he wins a lot through fold equity and he'd also bet his entire range of flushes there so sometimes you hero him with the straight and he wins with a 5-high flush. Villain ran very well at the start of the session but left for a few hours and has been running poorly since.

Hero: $500+
Villain: $350

Hero has Q J T 8 on the button. Few limps including villain, I make it $15, villain (EP) and 2 others call.

Flop ($65): 3 2 7
Action checks around. Villian is spewy/bluffy so I believe he doesn't have anything.

Turn ($65): 3 2 7 9
Action checks to me again. This time I bet out $60. Villain calls.

River ($185): 3 2 7 9 3
Villain grabs a stack of $100 and plops it out there. There's pretty much zero chance he was checking a flush draw over 2 streets. He wouldn't check 2 pair on the turn when the flop was checked around. He could certainly have something like 567T that he's turning into a bluff but which is actually the best hand. Maybe has a 3 some of the time.

My guess is a raise will fold out all 3's, some flushes (only because he's running poorly and doesn't want to get stacked once again), no full houses. But I can't really put many of those into villains range based on how he played.

I announce $210. Am I throwing $210 away?


Comments

  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    I don't really think villain would bet a non-full 3x on this river for 1/2 pot, he can't reasonably expect you to get fold better or get called by worse? I wouldn't even be sure if that's a bluff or a value bet tbh
  • High__Rolla Posts: 775Subscriber
    I think your read is good, but one problem is you don't rep much yourself when you raise the river, except 99 or 93. Is he savvy enough to snuff that out? If not, and you think you can get a fold, I think you need to bet a lot more to avoid him making a crying call.
  • BradleyT Posts: 621SubscriberProfessional
    High__Rolla said:
    I think your read is good, but one problem is you don't rep much yourself when you raise the river, except 99 or 93. Is he savvy enough to snuff that out? If not, and you think you can get a fold, I think you need to bet a lot more to avoid him making a crying call.
    Given that I led out on the turn when the 9 came and then followed up on the river on a board pair - combined with my image of nitty-ness - combined with his image of bluffy-ness it all worked together. He says, "Your 9's full or whatever are good" and folds.
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