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5-5 PLO: A Good Spot to Rep Top Set?

V ($3200) - 30's Pro. All-around is very solid. Reads hands well, capable of applying pressure, picking off bluffs, and making tough lay downs. Fairly aggressive preflop such as positional lighter 3bets but more straightforward post flop.

Hero (covers). Been hitting cards so have winning image. V has played dozens of hours with Hero and view him as solid.

Preflop: Hero opens KcKhQdJc $20 in HJ. V calls OTB. Blinds call.

Flop ($80): Ac Th 8d. Hero cbets $60. V raises to $225. Blinds fold. Hero tank calls.

Turn ($530). Ac Th 8d 3c. Hero checks. V bets $500. Hero? V has $2450 left after the bet.

I think V mostly has sets here, or possibly top two with redraw. However, he is very unlikely to have top set in his range (since no 3bet PF), but my range is uncapped this deep. Is this a good spot to check raise to rep AA, while having great equity as a fall back?

Comments

  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    How are we uncapped when we flat the flop?

    If he has an ace, then it's really hard for us to have AAxx. He can severely discount it, especially if we raise a decent amount pre or if we don't always raise all our AAxx combos (like if we occasionally limp weak AAxx).

    So just because we can rep AAxx by raising pre and betting a flop with an ace on it doesn't mean that a solid villain is auto mucking.
  • High__Rolla Posts: 765Subscriber
    DrGambol said:
    How are we uncapped when we flat the flop?

    If he has an ace, then it's really hard for us to have AAxx. He can severely discount it, especially if we raise a decent amount pre or if we don't always raise all our AAxx combos (like if we occasionally limp weak AAxx).
    This deep I often wouldn't bet/3bet the flop with AAxx and mark my hand, but it is a good question as to whether he would expect me to do that.

    I think he thinks I would open almost all AAxx from the HJ which I probably would. If I limp AAxx, it's probably a different spot.
  • BradleyT Posts: 621SubscriberProfessional
    edited May 2015
    He does fold the best hand sometimes and he continues sometimes with worse like a wrap with a pair + clubs i.e. 89QJ:cc which you're 82% against. So overall the play does get better to fold and keeps worse in. Although would he have 3-bet rundowns pre OTB?

    I come up with you having about 42% equity against various holdings of his. With 42% equity in the pot you only need him to fold 10% to break even. Seems reasonable.
  • BucSappyBucSappy Posts: 25Subscriber
    V could have J9Q7/TTJ9 here. Worst case scenario (which you are likely in) you have about 35% equity with the pure nut draws.

    I think shoving is the best play simply because you want his wraps that you have crushed and for him to potentially fold middle/bottom set.
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    shove
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