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Middle Pair + FD vs Tight/Passive Villain - Flop Line Check

TastesLikeBurning Posts: 429SubscriberProfessional
edited June 2015 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
$1/2 $300 max, $325 effective, hero covers.

Table has been loose/gambly and is now playing fairly deep.

Villain is fairly tight pre, has opened a few pots but is pretty passive and has open limped a bunch. When the big $$$ goes in, has "it" although he hasn't shown down much, other than KK on a Q-high board where the $$$ went in on the turn.

Hero has about a '6' image, stack has gone up and down and has gotten involved quite a bit. Won a decent pot against the other competent player at the table, but not sure if that registers with the villain.

OTTH

Villain limps UTG, three more in the field limp, hero limps OTB with J 2. SB completes, BB checks his option.

Speculative, I know, but I feel like I've got a good feel for table dynamics. Players are waaaaaay overplaying medium-strength hands and will shovel money in when they shouldn't. There are times I'd raise this if players are folding to raises preflop, but the table is somewhat sticky. So, I prefer to take a cheap flop OTB.

Flop ($14):
Q T J

Blinds check to villain who bets $16.

Lagtarded player with $400 to my right calls.

Hero raises to $65 (pretty sure this is terrible as I'm never folding worse).

Villain 3-bets to $165, leaving roughly $150 behind.

Lagtard folds.

Hero?

Thoughts about pre and flop are appreciated.

Comments

  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,977SubscriberProfessional
    Preflop is a little loose for my liking. Even if players are overplaying mid-strength hands, you're going to have a hard time flopping a hand with J2s that beats a mid-strength hand to get value from.

    On the flop, I'm just calling the first time. You're going to have a hard time getting better to fold and/or getting worse to call. Call with your direct odds.

    Once it gets bet/3-bet, you know villain isn't folding, so you can decide if you want to take one card to try and hit, or shove to get two cards.

    A reasonable villain range for limping UTG and playing this way: AA, AQ, KQ, QJ, QT, JT, K9s, 89s, A x.

    Assuming villain is all in, pot is 14+16+65+315=410, 250 to call. Looking at two cards, you've got about 40% equity. It's really close - I think you should shove and ride the variance train.

    But fold pre and avoid this mess!
  • tensor0910 Posts: 123Subscriber
    Given the described table dynamics I'm definitely limping suited trash like Q7, K4, etc. etc. J2 is kinda....ehhh....but I dont hate it. Given the action I'm folding. If villian is as tight as you say he is at minimum you're hoping he has 2p or flopped broadway. call the flop bet but as played....how lucky are ya feeling?
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