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Straight flush draw odds

kdogmc Posts: 100Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Effective stacks 800

I have qj diamonds in late pos

Raise from straightforward player to 25

I call.

Flop 9910 with two diamonds

He bets 35. I raise 100. He think for a second and
Shoves.

I put him on AA or KK with this fairly quick shove.

Odds correct to call?

Comments

  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    You would need to be very confident that he doesn't take this line with TT or 99. If he's the more competent kind of straightforward player that isn't going to slowplay his sets, especially on wet boards, then no, you aren't getting the right price. Even one combo of TT in his range is enough that it's a coin flip at best.
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    Let's see...
    The pot is (25+25+35+100+(800-25-35)) + (800-25-100) = 925 + 675 = 1600
    Wait, duh it's 1600 if you're both putting your 800 effective stacks in

    And you have to call 800-25-100 = 675

    So you have to put in 675 (which is left in your stack) to win 1600, you need 42% equity to call

    If you're sure he has an overpair, then sure :)
    High variance but still a profitable call

    Even if he has 9x (would he make it 25 with 9x?), you have 43% equity and calling is still around break-even
    If he has an OP, you have 48% equity


    But if he ever fast plays T9 or TT to get action from worse that might otherwise be scared away on future streets, then I would consider a fold because you're drawing to two outs. I doubt it though, if it's a straightforward player, because he would probably tend to flat with those hands.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    You have to assign him a range and calculate your equity against that range (e.g. with pokerstove or propokertools).
    His huge overshove more looks like AdKd or AdXd to me, so you should include hands like that in his range. Your equity will go down then, since you are pretty much crushed vs such hands.
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