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Free Video: CLP Video No. 287: Home Game Bart Reviews His Splashy At $1-$3 Deep Part 2

Free Podcast: CLP Podcast No. 54: Time Warp And Turn Value
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Utter spew? Thought process included. Pick it apart please

Foxwoods 1-2 Saturday evening.

Table in general is very loose passive. Limpers are calling raises and I feel it's a bit more of a get in and make a hand type of game.

My image should be very tight.

Villain is to my right in CO. He seems competent, a bit loose for my liking at this level game, but he's psotionally aware, seen him raise to 8$ pre in LP over two limpers with 52s.

Hero $250 villain covers

Limps in 4 spots, hero limps BTN J10o SB completes BB checks

7 to flop

Flop ($13)
J22 :r:

Checks to villain in CO who bets 8, hero calls all others fold.

Hero thinks villain is capable of having a worse or better jack as well as a deuce.

Turn ($29)
7 badugi board
Villain bets 20
Hero calls

At this point I'm still not quite ready to rule out a worse jack. I'm also thinking that most of the time if he has a better jack that the river is going to go check check. What would villain really get value from?

River ($67)
10
Villain leads 35
Hero feels in a pickle. I don't expect him to bet a hand like KJ all that often. It's not the norm in the room, not to say it's impossible for him to do it, the majority of the players in the room get to showdown though. So I think he can only have a 2 if I am beat. But does he also have anything else in his range that he's betting 3 streets in a limped pot? Why do I feel stuck calling the river because I made the ten? Is the ten at all relevant? I'm not so sure.

Is my thought process good? Is calling here nothing but spew? Should I consider a different line? Fold, or maybe even raise?

I discussed this hand with two guys I know playing 2-5 a few mins after it happened. They both gave different answers to the river play.

As more and more time goes on I'm really questioning my abilities as a player. I'm starting to think I just stink and my game is absolute garbage
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Comments

  • tensor0910 Posts: 123Subscriber
    edited June 2015
    Did the turn card put out a fd? It's hard for either of you to have a 2 and villain seems s3mi competent. He could possibly my call pf with j7s, j9, jt, or maaaaybe JQo. But then again.....I'd think if he had Jx he would most likely check the river.....yeah logic says fold but I'd probably be a donkey and call
  • the_machine Posts: 202Subscriber
    No the turn is a badugi, no flush draw. He just limped pre, no raise from me, not sure if you missed that or not
  • tensor0910 Posts: 123Subscriber
    Never played badugi
  • the_machine Posts: 202Subscriber
    Badugi is a 4 card game where the goal is to make a low hand with no matching suits. A234 rainbow is the nut hand. So when someone says a badugi board it means one of each suit out there on the turn
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    I often think of poker betting as a conversation...

    V bets 8 saying - I got the best hand
    Hero calls saying - no, I got the best hand
    at this point V has got to believe that Hero has AT MINIMUM a Jack
    since hero didn't raise pre-flop, V can assume that Hero doesn't have AJ, KJ or QJsuited
    right?
    okay

    On the turn, V says - I got your Jack beat
    Since V already knows we have a Jack - He's got to have J7 or better... AT MINIMUM
    In a limped pot - A2, 23 and 24 are very possible. Remember - you said he was "a bit loose to your liking."
    Instead of listening to what V is saying, Hero gets stubborn and says, I don't believe you.
    At this point, Hero is truly hoping for a J.

    On the river, V says - one way trip to value town, all aboard!
    Hero says - wait for me!

    Since JT is totally in Hero's range - V should not be betting a worse Jack since he's "competent." Here, V should show up with a deuce.

    BTW -
    In a passive game - I prefer raising preflop in position with JTos.
    As played, Hero should have folded the turn.
  • samangr Posts: 23Subscriber
    Limped pots like this is a little bit of a guessing game. Unfortunately we can't put V in a range here as he good have the whole board or not.
    A2, 32, 42, J7, J9, JT etc etc.
    From my experience in limped pots betting three streets is usually a nut type of hand.
    But as played I don't think I would fold either. And then I would blame myself for getting sticky in a stupid limped pot with a mediocre hand :-)

  • OscarNuke Posts: 16Subscriber
    I completely agree with beauregard. I would also highlight how preflop this is more of a fold, even with position. So either raise big to steal, or get out. And seeing how this table is loose passive, you'd be better off waiting to take these players to value town. Calling in position with that hand is a leak.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,001Subscriber
    Since villain limped, there shouldn't be too many better jacks in his range. He also shouldn't have too many 2s in his range, either. This is a wose jack quite a bit. That being said, I just call. Villain can say the same thing about you, and the blinds behind could have a deuce and check/raise.

    On the turn, I'm okay playing fifth street chicken and calling. Again, how do you ever have a 2 here? How do you have AJ or KJ? There's still a lot of worse jacks in his range.

    I'm amazed everyone is saying to fold. I think the river is a raise/fold. Again, go back to preflop. How does he have a 2 here? Raise to $85 for value, targeting all his jacks. Seems kinda mubsy to fear trip deuces.
  • the_machine Posts: 202Subscriber
    Well I'm glad someone else said to raise.

    When I discussed this with my buddies at 2-5 one said just call the other said raise.

    This is why I think maybe I just stink at poker or maybe why I always struggled playing cash during the WSOP, but consistenly won at foxwoods and mohegan sun in CT.

    I just don't see people betting themselves in villains spot without a really big hand. I can't count the number of people who said I was scared of the xxxx when xxxx makes up such a small portion of their opponents range. It's just an option that they lose to so they use it as an excuse to not bet, or to just call.

    People love to call and hate facing multiple large bets with modest holdings IME, and felt like dpbuck did in his post on the turn. That thought process on the turn was exactly what I thought and I did end up calling on the river just in case there was a possibility that he had a worse J.

    Maybe it's just the passive nature of the 50+ year olds that I try to surround myself with, but I find it hard to see how I'm ahead the way that beau discussed. The breakdown of the story was how I felt except the turn I felt like it would be a 5th street chicken.

    I will get to the results a bit later but would like to hear more from dpbuck about why he thinks raising is good. Do you think we will get value from worse? Call 2 streets on a dry board then a raise gets called by someone who I view as at least competent? (After a few seconds of discussing with the 2-5 guy who said raise and reminded him it was 1-2 he changed his mind and said call was best)





  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,001Subscriber
    the_machine said:

    I will get to the results a bit later but would like to hear more from dpbuck about why he thinks raising is good. Do you think we will get value from worse? Call 2 streets on a dry board then a raise gets called by someone who I view as at least competent? (After a few seconds of discussing with the 2-5 guy who said raise and reminded him it was 1-2 he changed his mind and said call was best)
    How many deuces do you have in your range? If I'm villain, I'm going for river value with QJ+ and J7 all day as a bet/fold. But you (as hero) can target getting value from a villain who isn't capable of bet/folding getting almost 4:1 on a river call. I really think JT is close to the nuts here, and to just call is leaving value on the table.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    Dbuck.


    After villain barrels all three streets he has more overpairs in his hand. You could min raise the river but not be surprised when you are called by better two pairs.

    I would also be curious to know if this guy can bet thinly on the river. The more showdown monkey he is the less I an raising because his bet is more polarized
  • BradleyT Posts: 621SubscriberProfessional
    I think for this hand we need to strip away all of the advanced concepts and take it for what it is - in a standard $1/2 game a guy bet out 3 streets on a paired board, he has plenty of trips combos in his range (A2s/K2s/Q2s/62s/52s/42s/32s) based on prior hands, he has a few combos of worse 2 pairs (KJ/QJ/J9/J8/J7) in his range but he's betting into OP who has some 2's in his range (A2s/K2s) but not as many worse J's. And using Bart's weighted probabilities we can slightly discount KJ/QJ preflop because we've seen him raise 52s.

    I'm sorry but I just don't see J9 going for 3 streets here in standard $1/2 games without prior history or some reason like OP won't fold 88 on this runout (which I don't think exists).
  • ChiliPalmer Posts: 45SubscriberProfessional
    Fwiw, I'd raise preflop, get rid of all the 5-2, K-2 type hands for one thing. But assuming I'd just limped along on the button, id likely raise the flop as well. If you get 3b, can fold. If he calls and checks the turn, you check it back and call any bet on the river. I think you define your hand and your opponents range much better with that line.
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    edited June 2015
    Thehammah said:
    After villain barrels all three streets he has more overpairs in his hand. You could min raise the river but not be surprised when you are called by better two pairs.
    Hammah smokin' some strong stuff?
    If the board was 7 2 2 - then I'd agree an overpair is possible.
    But on a J-high board - you're suggesting that V has QQ, KK or AA?
    Sorry, I don't buy it.
    If he was UTG trying to limp/raise an aggressive table, I'd say "ok."
    But in the CO?
    It should be a J or a 2. Maybe... 77... but very, very unlikely.
    As played - it seems very unlikely a passive player bets three streets with most Js.
  • JordanHolt Posts: 43Subscriber
    Plenty of people in low limit games limp over pairs to go for check raise. They also have plenty of deuces in their range and they hardly ever triple barrel bluff.

    I am with the op in that I get in these situations all the time where the riv card hits me but really doesn't ever change the hand. I also like to outthink myself but you are beat here 90% of the time probably. Just my opinion
  • Jack7777 Posts: 655Subscriber
    I fold the flop. IME, when there is a pair on the flop and somebody bets, it often means they have trips. I say often, so why should I call with less. In cases where they don't have trips, they often have FHs and over pairs. Now, maybe with top pair weak kicker I am going to win, some of the time. But will I win often enough to make calling 100% of the time justified. So, I am stuck for $2. By folding post flop, I lose $2. If I keep calling, I am risking more money.

    This is why I find playing 1/2 difficult. Because the amount to call is so low, why not? But 3 why nots called to SD multiply to $100.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    beauregard said:
    Thehammah said:
    After villain barrels all three streets he has more overpairs in his hand. You could min raise the river but not be surprised when you are called by better two pairs.
    Hammah smokin' some strong stuff?
    If the board was 7 2 2 - then I'd agree an overpair is possible.
    But on a J-high board - you're suggesting that V has QQ, KK or AA?
    Sorry, I don't buy it.
    If he was UTG trying to limp/raise an aggressive table, I'd say "ok."
    But in the CO?
    It should be a J or a 2. Maybe... 77... but very, very unlikely.
    As played - it seems very unlikely a passive player bets three streets with most Js.
    WOW.. I had to pick myself off the floor.. Beau is suggesting calling when I am suggesting folding.. ha ha..

    This is a 1/2 game.. players are going to generally bet their hands and go to showdown.. when this guy bets three streets I am always going to put him on more value hands. We know he limped so what worse hands can he have that he would bet all three streets?? imho only a bluff.. but that flop really doesnt have any draws on it..so thats rather unlikely..

    So what else can he overlimp pre that is a value hand that he would bet all three streets??
    A2 comes to mind. probably suited but not always.. QJ yeah many players dont like raising with this hand .. KJ also a possibility..

    now the jack hands are quite as likely to barrel three streets because rec players sees those as weak hands compared to the board.. thats why I suggest he might have played KK or QQ weirdly and had those. I have played with players that would only raise with AA and played backwards with overpairs this way. so you have to include that in his range as well.

    thats why raising isnt so good in this spot ..simply because the line he took is so strong and there are so few bluffs in his range..

    ww
  • Arenzano Posts: 1,392Subscriber
    edited June 2015
    Fold the turn. He should have a 2 here a lot, and if he doesn't have a 2 he has a J that beats you. On the river when he bets for the third time, he definitely should have a 2. Fold.

    Is he capable of turning 99- into bluff? Unlikely.
  • workinghard Posts: 1,565Subscriber
    I completely agree with beauregard. I would also highlight how preflop this is more of a fold, even with position.
    Raising on the button isn't terrible if you think it's likely you can pick up the pot or make it heads up but that's hard to do at 1-2 if you make it any less than prob $15 (just a guess as 1-2 isn't spread at my casino). As far as folding pre, I just can't believe that I'm reading that right. JTo with no raise on on the button multi-way 125BB deep? That's a dream spot. So, I like limping pre in position.

    On the flop, villain is betting in LP into a multi-way board. He could have a worse jack or perhaps a pocket pair. I think a call is fine.

    On the turn, when he bets again, I'm taking pocket pairs out of his range. Also, what worse jack is he betting after getting called? J9? More likely that's just checking. I think folding the turn is fine.

    On the river as played, if villain had a worse jack, he is now, at best, chopping if you have J9 or worse. Is he betting into you when it's clear you have a jack hoping for a chop? He might have AJ though I think most opponents are checking any Jack at that spot. If you think he might bet AJ, then I think a call is ok but I would expect to loose to a deuce a lot. You can't raise since the likelihood of him having AJ, let alone KJ/QJ, is so remote, that I don't think there is any value in it.
    After villain barrels all three streets he has more overpairs in his hand. You could min raise the river but not be surprised when you are called by better two pairs.
    The preflop action doesn't support this at all. Villain is in the cutoff after multiple limpers and he just overlimps QQ+?

    I think this is a good hand example of playing to your opponent's range instead of your own hand.
  • boredoo Posts: 223Subscriber
    Knowing nothing about the villain, when someone limps in 1/2, his range is pretty much anything. Three gappers, any suited cards, broadway, and overpairs up to AA, the latter of which he's trying to limp-reraise. You can narrow this range on early streets, but people in 1/2 games limp EVERYTHING semi connected, suited, broadway, and paired. It's just a fact of 1/2 life that in my experience makes the game more profitable but sometimes leads to tough spots like this one.

    My thoughts on the hand:

    I like a raise on the button with JT. Let's you rep wider and gives you the betting lead and folds out some garbage that can beat you (like a random suited 2).

    I'm never folding flop unless I know for a fact this guy wouldn't lead out here with a weaker J. You can't know that yet. People will bet out any pocket pair and any J, many of which are worse than yours. So at this point I'd give villain PPs, hands like A2/23s/24s, J7+

    Turn betting out is stronger. I think it removes all pocket pairs lower than J, except 7s of course. I also think it removes J8/J9/JT and maybe even QJ/KJ. AJ definitely still in range.

    So basically, you're almost always beat here, and you should probably fold. At 1/2, an old guy is rarely betting anything you beat here. How many old guys have you seen bet J9 for 2 streets on any J high board, let alone JT/JQ/JK, even AJ? Very few.

    River is interesting on first glance, but maybe not. Given the range that bets the turn, how many hands do you beat? AJ only, so V's range still crushes yours. You still lose to all 2s, all overpairs. You only beat one more hand on the river than you beat on the turn.

    It's a fold.


    You haven't posted results. Maybe the guy shows up with a bluff or AJ. Some OMC types will get frisky and decide to bluff, but keep in mind it's rare -- you need to be best 35% of time to profitably call river, and I really, really doubt V has 99 or JT or air 35% of the time or more.

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