Hand I watched a friend play:
5/5 400bb effective stacks
Hero in BB QQ --> know as the table nit solid TAG
Villain: UTG --> very good wining player of the old-school variety. Nothing fancy but years of experience, and very cognizant of peoples ranges. Master TAG lets call him. I'm new to the game but I've seen him flat KK in BB vs late position open from Hero in question.
PRE: Villain opens UTG for 25, two flats from Mid, Hero in BB with QQ. re-raises to 125. UTG thinks and calls. Other two fold.
FLOP: Q♦ 9♠ 2♥ Pot 300. Hero cbets 215, villain calls
TURN T♥ Pot 730 hero bets 525 villain calls,
RIVER K♥ Pot 1780, Hero has slight less than pot, he tank checks and villain thinks for a small while then ships... Hero tank folds.
When we went for a walk to talk about the hand my imitate thought was ship river. We're only checking to induce a bluff... Not sure how right that is regarding checking,but that was my initial thought.
I've come hone and thought about get to river ranges and I see them as this:
Hero: QQ+,TT (Hero might even check KK for 'pot control')
I think when hero checks back the river, it looks like AA a bunch, and thus villain would potentially think his two pair (but would probably check behind)... he's also capable of bluffing in this spot, but not sure with what basis these ranges. I'm also not sure about KQ vs hero line as he looks so strong here that villain is probably folding the turn... I've discounted them by 50% in poker ranger. (attached screen shot below)
Easy ship river for value IMHO, thoughts?
Can't remember if he had the Qh which is quite a big deal as it discounts FDs massivly