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5/5 400bb deep interesting river

ShinKage13ShinKage13 Posts: 59Subscriber
edited June 2015 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Hand I watched a friend play:

5/5 400bb effective stacks

Hero in BB QQ --> know as the table nit solid TAG

Villain: UTG --> very good wining player of the old-school variety. Nothing fancy but years of experience, and very cognizant of peoples ranges. Master TAG lets call him. I'm new to the game but I've seen him flat KK in BB vs late position open from Hero in question.


PRE: Villain opens UTG for 25, two flats from Mid, Hero in BB with QQ. re-raises to 125. UTG thinks and calls. Other two fold.

FLOP: Q 9 2 Pot 300. Hero cbets 215, villain calls

TURN T Pot 730 hero bets 525 villain calls,

RIVER K Pot 1780, Hero has slight less than pot, he tank checks and villain thinks for a small while then ships... Hero tank folds.

When we went for a walk to talk about the hand my imitate thought was ship river. We're only checking to induce a bluff... Not sure how right that is regarding checking,but that was my initial thought.

I've come hone and thought about get to river ranges and I see them as this:

Hero: QQ+,TT (Hero might even check KK for 'pot control')

Villain: QQ-KK,99-TT,22,AQs,KJs+,AQo,KhQc,KsQh,KsQc,KcQh,KcQs,KhQs

I think when hero checks back the river, it looks like AA a bunch, and thus villain would potentially think his two pair (but would probably check behind)... he's also capable of bluffing in this spot, but not sure with what basis these ranges. I'm also not sure about KQ vs hero line as he looks so strong here that villain is probably folding the turn... I've discounted them by 50% in poker ranger. (attached screen shot below)

Easy ship river for value IMHO, thoughts?

Can't remember if he had the Qh which is quite a big deal as it discounts FDs massivly
1171 x 739 - 112K
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Comments

  • ShinKage13ShinKage13 Posts: 59Subscriber
    edited June 2015
    fascinating how important Qh is, its worth a whole 5% of equity on the river!!
  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    edited June 2015
    I don't think villain opens KQo for 5bb UTG and then calls a 3bet from a nit (Hero)
    KQs yes, that's possible.

    Also, I don't think villain would flat KK/AA preflop in this situation. They are playing so deep stacked. He has to worry about the other two MP callers getting sticky with smaller pairs and playing KK 4 ways deep stacked. The situation you mentioned earlier when he flatted KK from BB is different. There he was up against a slightly weaker range (LP open) and just one opponent. So flatting KK there is good.

    Is villain a pouncer? Does he pounce on a pot when his opponents have capped ranges? The way hero has played this hand - he is screaming out that he doesn't have a flush nor a straight. So should hero adjust for his face-up range by calling with hands that are at the top of that range? Answers to these questions will swing the final action to be taken.

    Does villain float a lot? Would he float the flop with Axhh ?? Does he slow plays sets? Would he really just call on the turn with 99/TT/22?? Is he capable of showing up here with JTs?? If he is a winning player, he is more likely to have called a nit's 3bet with JTs instead of KQo.

    Honestly if you just look at value hands, there is not that much we can beat. We beat AQo (4 combos), KQs (1 combo - 0 if we don't have the Qh), 99, TT, 22 (9 combos - would he always slowplay them till the river though? may be just 50% times - so that's 5 combos - I personally think he would almost always raise the set at least on the turn - but I don't know him)
    So we really beat about 10 combos at max - more likely just 4-6 combos.

    What beats us? JJ (6 combos), JTs (4 combos), AQhh (0 if we have the Qh), Axhh (depends on villain's tendencies to float)


    I can't finalize an answer. A lot depends on the questions I asked above. I would ask those questions to myself at the table and then decide what to do.
  • ShinKage13ShinKage13 Posts: 59Subscriber
    edited June 2015
    Great questions that I don't have definitive answers for.

    I disagree with KQo as he might decided the other two players will call if he calls (a common occurrence), it's definitely not 100% but 50% discounted seems fair. By this reasoning I think JT could be in his range (as you point out) but does he call flop and turn.... I'm not sure as I've not seen him play enough to say. . JJ is never in his call flop range IMHO. Hero only has big PP and villain will be aware of this.

  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    You mean he doesn't expect hero to 3 bet AK and c-bet the flop? From my experience of playing with them, old school live players love to put people on AK and don't give up a good pair on the flop easily. Depends on how nitty he think hero is.
  • NutsUppercut Posts: 146Subscriber
    It's hard to be good in this spot against an older competent player. The size of his ship is important here. He's shipping an additional 1100 when he can just check, it makes his value range very polarized. He isn't shipping 2 pair for thin value often enough here and there is no front door flush draw that bricked, so there is no front door draw that missed (J10 gets there). A set of 99's is the only plausible hand that we beat in this spot, and it's much less likely than likely.

    In this spot I muck. If he is turning AQ into a bluff.... Nice hand
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    edited June 2015
    I think your V's range is crazy wide - unless he's one of those "gambooly" California Asians or a bluffy "pro". Based on action - V should only have 99, JTs, A J or KK.


    As Bart, Tuck and David often advocate... the flop is where the hand is defined.

    Against this range, your friend made a good fold.
    He only beats AA, 99 (or 22) which he would check back the river. And if he had KQ - he's never betting it unless he's a genius at turning his 2-pair into a bluff.

    I think the fold is correct... but depending on the V - I might bet/fold so as to discourage river shove/bluffing.
  • ShinKage13ShinKage13 Posts: 59Subscriber
    edited June 2015
    iamallin said:
    You mean he doesn't expect hero to 3 bet AK and c-bet the flop? From my experience of playing with them, old school live players love to put people on AK and don't give up a good pair on the flop easily. Depends on how nitty he think hero is.
    Hero never 3bets AK vs UTG player deep.
  • ShinKage13ShinKage13 Posts: 59Subscriber
    beauregard said:
    I think your V's range is crazy wide - unless he's one of those "gambooly" California Asians or a bluffy "pro". Based on action - V should only have 99, JTs, A J or KK.


    As Bart, Tuck and David often advocate... the flop is where the hand is defined.

    Against this range, your friend made a good fold.
    He only beats AA, 99 (or 22) which he would check back the river. And if he had KQ - he's never betting it unless he's a genius at turning his 2-pair into a bluff.

    I think the fold is correct... but depending on the V - I might bet/fold so as to discourage river shove/bluffing.
    we only have a pot sized bet at the end.
  • ShinKage13ShinKage13 Posts: 59Subscriber
    NutsUppercut said:
    It's hard to be good in this spot against an older competent player. The size of his ship is important here. He's shipping an additional 1100 when he can just check, it makes his value range very polarized. He isn't shipping 2 pair for thin value often enough here and there is no front door flush draw that bricked, so there is no front door draw that missed (J10 gets there). A set of 99's is the only plausible hand that we beat in this spot, and it's much less likely than likely.

    In this spot I muck. If he is turning AQ into a bluff.... Nice hand
    but do you bet the river? I think we have to
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    edited June 2015
    ShinKage13 said:
    we only have a pot sized bet at the end.
    I know - but if we bet say 5-600, V has got to think that we're never folding for a shove. So depending on the table dynamics, I might bet - knowing that V can't shove/bluff without a J. Though, I prolly fold to a shove.

    Sometimes - the relative size of the bet represents as much strength as a bet that's in relation to the pot size.

    Overall - I think your friend played it fine - although I question the big turn bet (in hindsight). If V calls a big pfr and a 2/3 pot flop bet - he's got to have a monster (or larceny on his mind). I think in hindsight - with the board getting scarier - I might want to go for protecting my stack as opposed to protecting my hand. So a smaller turn bet like 3-400 might be more optimal?

    Which makes me reconsider the flop bet... I'm wondering if 2/3 flop bet is best action as well? If V is calling 215 - then he's probably calling 300 as well as 150. I recall in CLP videos - some of the pros talk about how in 3-bet pots, the action is often more straight-forward/abc. So it seems that ANY bet (regardless of size) is getting worse hands to fold and only hands with lots of equity to call. So is bigger better? What hands are trying to get value from?

    Again - this is all Monday-morning quarterbacking (and results-oriented)... and it's easier to assess after the fact. But because we're out of position - I dislike building big pots that invite good players to try and steal it on later streets. If we were in position - I like the notion of building the pot as big as possible to try and get the stacks in... but oop, I think the bluff factor goes up a lot in these types of games - and then we're having to make hero calls with hands that aren't as strong as we'd like. (This is not to criticize your friend - but more as a very interesting case-study as to what might be the most optimal line....)
  • LesterDiamondLesterDiamond Posts: 152Subscriber
    AQhh
  • bobswaggetbobswagget Posts: 37Subscriber
    I agree with Lester, AQhh he's not shoving without the flush, and I would try to get reads on the villains hand strength by how long it takes for him to call.
  • bobswaggetbobswagget Posts: 37Subscriber
    edited June 2015
    Beauregard, you bring up a great point about ABC play in 3-bet pots post flop. I think the bet sizing could have been larger, if Villain does show show up with AQhh and river brings a blank, you can size up an even bigger value by inflating the pot earlier. River is a bet/fold IMO
  • Smoeseph Posts: 25Subscriber
    I don't think river can be a bet fold given stack sizes. Its 1100 into about 1800. Are you gonna bet 700 and then fold getting like 8-1? I like the check but Im more curious as to villains bluff tendencies. Its pretty easy to conclude you never have a J in your range or a flush so villain can freely decide to shove river as a bluff. I also discount KK because calling turn given heros perceived range seems somewhat unlikely, as does JJ. I think overall I like check fold. I think its gonna be tough to get worse to call a river bet and I don't think he has a ton of stuff that calls the turn only to bluff river. Do you honestly think this player is calling turn with AQ or KQ? So unless he can have AA here and know to turn it into a bluff I think this is a pretty good check/fold.
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    edited June 2015
    Smoeseph said:
    I don't think river can be a bet fold given stack sizes. Its 1100 into about 1800. Are you gonna bet 700 and then fold getting like 8-1?

    I like the check but Im more curious as to villains bluff tendencies. Its pretty easy to conclude you never have a J in your range or a flush so villain can freely decide to shove river as a bluff.
    As we can all agree - it's very v-dependent.
    but against a "very good wining player of the old-school variety" - checking the river is just giving him the green light to shove with his entire range.
    I'm not sure bet/folding is the best line either... but when we check, we're basically saying, "take it, Doyle"
    it's not like we have a single paired hand. we have a strong hand.
    maybe a check/fold was best.
    but I think a value-river bet might prevent V from shoving with inferior hands... maybe?

    also, maybe a flop check or check/raise might have been better?
    followed by a pot-sized turn bet?
    this is just one of those hands/boards that gets nastier and nastier. very hard to play.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,001Subscriber
    edited June 2015
    beauregard said:

    As we can all agree - it's very v-dependent.
    but against a "very good wining player of the old-school variety" - checking the river is just giving him the green light to shove with his entire range.
    I'm not sure bet/folding is the best line either... but when we check, we're basically saying, "take it, Doyle"
    And that's very key. A competent villain can shove his entire range. Hero is capped at top set - Hero never has a flush or straight here.

    But how can villain have a flush or straight? He can't really show up with a J here. What hand is he calling with preflop and on the flop with a jack in it? I can't come up with one. As for the flush, it would have to be exactly A Q (assuming hero doesn't have Q), right? What other flushes are in his range? I'm much more worried about running into KK than a flush or straight.

    Since villain is good enough to realize we're capped, I'm good with checking the river allowing villain to bluff into us, then calling. In a tournament, it's a fold, but in a cash game, I'm comfortable calling getting 2:1.
  • ReignmakerReignmaker Posts: 147Subscriber
    ShinKage13 said:

    Nothing fancy but years of experience, and very cognizant of peoples ranges.
    I like the check fold in this spot. You won't be good more than 50% of the time when called. Also, hero has taken a very strong line throughout the hand. I rarely see anyone bluffing in this spot.

    Sometimes you just have to go with the Occam's Razor principle-the simplest explanation is usually the correct one.
  • Smoeseph Posts: 25Subscriber
    I think you guys also have to think a little more about what hands villain makes it to river with and then has to bluff. Hero has taken such a strong line and his sizing on the turn is really going to narrow the range of villain. Im not convinced villain actually makes it to river with many hands that feel the need to bluff. I would go as far as to say that if the descriptions are accurate, villain is folding most 1 pair hands without draws on turn.
  • Johnny_UtahJohnny_Utah Posts: 402Subscriber
    dpbuck said:


    But how can villain have a flush or straight? He can't really show up with a J here. What hand is he calling with preflop and on the flop with a jack in it? I can't come up with one. As for the flush, it would have to be exactly A Q (assuming hero doesn't have Q), right? What other flushes are in his range? I'm much more worried about running into KK than a flush or straight.

    Are we completely discounting A J because of the flop call? Being 400bb deep maybe with AJ suited V will call that in position and deep. Obv calling w/ A J isn't the best, but can't we assume some of the time V is floating. Then on the turn he is open ended w/ the NFD.

    I would expect a raise on the turn with A J but if he puts hero on KK or AA maybe he doesn't think his fold equity is good raising there....?

    I just think a J could be in his range....no?

  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,001Subscriber
    Johnny_Utah said:


    Are we completely discounting A J because of the flop call? Being 400bb deep maybe with AJ suited V will call that in position and deep. Obv calling w/ A J isn't the best, but can't we assume some of the time V is floating. Then on the turn he is open ended w/ the NFD.

    I would expect a raise on the turn with A J but if he puts hero on KK or AA maybe he doesn't think his fold equity is good raising there....?

    I just think a J could be in his range....no?

    You're calling a 2/3-potsized bet on flop in a 3-bet flop with AJ on Q92? That seems way too speculative to me, but maybe I'm a nit. Most competent players won't float in this situation, after an UTG raise, two calls, 3-bet from the blinds, then a large c-bet.

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