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2/5 @ Maryland Live - Facing Check-3b Shove with Set on Flop

ANason21ANason21 Posts: 166Subscriber
edited June 2015 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
V1 is a standard TAG from what I can tell. Effective stack $800 with V1

V2 is kind of loose passive pre, aggressive post, and I am confident he overplays his hands. His stack has grown and vanished several times over the three hours I have been sitting at the table. Effective stack $500 with V2.

V1 raises from UTG+2 to $25, which has been the standard pre-flop raise at this table. Hero calls on the button with 4 4. V2 calls from the BB.

Pot $77

Flop K 4 T

V2 checks, V1 bets $85, Hero raises to $185, V2 shoves $475. V1 asks how much hero has left in his stack and then pretty quickly calls. Hero?
«1

Comments

  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,001Subscriber
    You can discount KK from V2, for obvious reasons. TT is possible, but so are a lot of draws, especially if he overplays hands. Meanwhile, that is a MASSIVE flop bet from V1, so I certainly discount sets. I'm definitely shoving for value here.
  • 442xx Posts: 14Subscriber
    I shove here. In addition to what dpbuck said, V1 shows up here with AK a lot (and maybe some KQs)
  • HavaxHavax Posts: 65Subscriber
    Shove. V1 isn't putting $425 into the pot then deciding the fold at this point.
  • nickdevo1 Posts: 163Subscriber
    i'd put my stack in now as you will most often have the best hand here. hopefully they are blocking each other's flush and straight outs.
    i just ran a bunch of different combo's and ranges that you are against here three-ways and i don't see anything where you are less than 57% and usually you are 60%+.
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    edited June 2015
    wow! I guess I'm in the minority here - but I see this as a HUGE problem...

    V1 is a standard TAG who raised in early position and overbets a K-high flushing flop... hmmm, what hands would I put him on?
    AA, KK, AK or TT... that's it.

    V2 is a wild man - and aggro. He calls and shoves. I've got him on a draw.
    His range: A X, QJ, or worst case, Q J... that's it.

    So how well are we doing against THAT range?
    Poker Cruncher has a set of 4s at 41%-ish

    But my sense is - this hand wouldn't be posted in the forums if it were that easy.
    TAG player overbets pot - gets raised by Hero and then 3-bet ALL IN... and he still calls... doesn't that send off warning bells? Me thinks it should!

    Since Hero raised - TAG player has got to figure we've at least got AK - and maybe a set? (no image description on Hero)

    This really, really depends on table dynamics - but I think insta-shoving is bad, over-simplified 2+2 advice. (c'mon guys we can do better than that!)

    V1 should NEVER show up with KQ here. And if he's a good player, he should be folding AK as well... remember, he's got to be worried about Hero who's behind with a big stack - who raised to 185 moments earlier. Does he think we were semi-bluffing?

    Remove AK from his range and Hero is now a dog at 32%.

    Again depending on table and players - I think this is at best a call. But I can make an argument here for a hero fold as well if V2 ain't as stupid as we're assuming... then he could have TT (BTW, I see A LOT of players check/raise from oop with a set to protect against flush draws) and V1 has AA.

    I think we can all agree that shoving ain't getting any folds.
    And with one player already all in - V1 is probably checking to showdown unless he improves.

    I love a set as much as the next guy. But I think that thinking it's got to be the best hand here based on presented betting is over optimistic.
  • ANason21ANason21 Posts: 166Subscriber
    Beau, do you really think V1 is over betting the pot with a set and then just calling V2's shove? Why would he not over shove if he is going to overbetting the pot with a set in the first place? AA may be in his leading range for this amount, but I really don't think KK or TT is, and AA is gone after he flat calls V2's 3-bet. I think your assessment of V1's range after overbetting and flat calling is a bit off.
  • ANason21ANason21 Posts: 166Subscriber
    beauregard said:



    TAG player overbets pot - gets raised by Hero and then 3-bet ALL IN... and he still calls... doesn't that send off warning bells? Me thinks it should!
    To me, honestly, this action makes his hand look like a huge draw, like AQ, AJ, or QJ of clubs.
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    After raising pre - V1 overbets the pot thinking he's going to take it down.
    Right?
    Then, Hero RAISES.
    And then, V2 SHOVES!

    if he's a true TAG - he's not on a draw here.
    390 to win 822 with Hero left to act...

    Seems far-fetched.
    Possible.
    But far-fetched.

    I just don't see V1 playing QJs like this - although Bart might... so it's possible.
    (But Bart ain't a TAG player.)

    I have, though, seen players flat-call with a set here to continue building a pot with the best hand. And then shove a blank turn.

    This is the problem with giving players generic descriptions like "TAG."
    Either way - unless the table was playing uber loose, I doubt KT is the best hand you're up against. But that's based on my experience at 2/5.

    If I just sat down at this game and THIS transpired - I'm never shoving here without more info on player styles and tendencies. But YOU were there. So l may be waaaay off.
    I cant ever remember witnessing a hand 3-way like this against good players where someone thinks AK is good or bottom set is the nuts. (Yeah, set over set is rare... but it's not impossible.)
  • ANason21ANason21 Posts: 166Subscriber
    I'm just not understanding how V1 shows up here with a set? What would be going through his head to bet a set so huge on the flop, which hits his opening range harder than either Hero's or V2's calling range?
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    if V2 is a drooler that calls with his entire range - V1 may be overbetting for value.
    if V1 is scared of the flush - he may be overbetting for protection.
    if V1 is tricky - he may be overbetting to maximize his value (although you'd expect a shove vs. V2)
    or maybe V1 meant to bet 65 and accidentally put out too much?

    V1 may also just be playing his hand and not thinking of his Vs' ranges... and he might have written you off as someone who's folding (again, no info on your image - so it's very hard to describe what's going through V1's head when we don't know if you've been bet/folding a lot or overplaying one pair hands).

    hard to say...
    but it's also very hard to say a "TAG player" is betting flop and flat-calling a raise AND 3-bet with anything that's not a monster - or a monster draw (i.e., Q J)

    Not everybody studies the game and plays optimally.
    if V1 were a true pro - he should over-shove to protect his equity - and when he doesn't, he's probably on a draw (although based on betting line - V1 should also expect Hero to overshove - so should do it first anyway- because he should anticipate it and think he's possibly got some fold equity)
    but that didn't happen. why?
    hell if I know.
    based on my experiences - it's typically been to have Hero put more money in bad.

    if you want to believe that both V1 and V2 are on draws based on this betting action... go ahead. again, it's player and table dependent. my games rarely play like that.
  • LesterDiamondLesterDiamond Posts: 152Subscriber
    Shove, nh.
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,098Subscriber
    Insta-shove.
    V1 never has a set here. Most likely AA or AK (maybe KQs if he's bad)
    V2 can have anything from Kx, TT to FD to QJ (probably not KK though due to pre)
  • FoldtoMyRaiseFoldtoMyRaise Posts: 312Subscriber
    edited June 2015
    Why can't V1 have a set here? Couldn't V1 be overbetting the pot to extract max value from V2. When hero raises, what kind of range does the V1 put hero on? Sets, two pair, AA, and AK and flush draws. When V1 flat calls a shove from V2 with hero still left to act, ALARM BELLS should start ringing. Would V1 flat call here with AA or AK with hero still left to act or fold? V1 probably does not want hero to fold draws and possibly AK. V1 may have AA and less likely to have AK in his range in this spot and definitely has TT and KK in his range. I think this hand depends on how tight V1 really is and how he plays AA and AK in this spot. I think hero may well be in a bad situation where hero is up against a better made hand in the form of a set KK or TT from V1 and drawing hand from V2.
  • ANason21ANason21 Posts: 166Subscriber
    FoldtoMyRaise said:
    Why can't V1 have a set here? Couldn't V1 be overbetting the pot to extract max value from V2. When hero raises, what kind of range does the V1 put hero in from V1? Sets, two pair, AA, and AK and flush draws. When V1 flat calls a shove from V2 with hero still left to act, ALARM BELLS should start ringing. Would V1 flat call here with AA or AK with hero still left to act or fold? V1 probably does not want hero to fold draws and possibly AK. V1 may have AA and less likely to have AK in his range this spot and definitely has TT and KK in his range. I think this hand depends on how tight V1 really is and how he plays AA and AK in this spot. I think hero may well be in a bad situation where hero is up against a better made hand in the form of a set KK or TT from V1 and drawing hand from V2.
    So V1 is over betting the pot as a lead, which folds out many of the draws, but then only flat calling because he wants to keep Hero's draws in? That doesn't make any sense to me. If he's nutted and charging draws once, I'd expect that he's charging them twice. Assume he has KK - why would he overbet/flat? I mean think about the possibilities for bad turn cards -- if V1 puts Hero on a draw, any A, Q, J, 9, or club is a scare card to a made hand like KK. Does V1 really flat and fade 21 cards on the turn if he puts Hero on a draw? That's nearly half the deck. And on the other side of that coin, if Hero is on a weaker made hand, V1 doesn't let any of those 21 cards roll off and kill his action. Given the texture and the action, I think V1 makes his decision here with a made hand and either mucks it or shoves it. I know that you have to weight ranges toward value when a lot of money goes in, but to me, the flat call looks an awful lot like a monster draw (AQ, AJ, or JQ of clubs).
    by 1Clock
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    so what happened?
  • ANason21ANason21 Posts: 166Subscriber
    beauregard said:
    so what happened?
    I thought for about 20 seconds and shoved because I didn't think V1's hand looked made and V2 could have had any number of stupid hands. After I shoved, V2 looked sick to his stomach, V1 insta-called, the K hit the turn, and my 444KK dragged a huge pot.

    V1 had a monster draw, AQc. His thought process for calling instead of shoving was probably something like: Well, I'm on a draw that has a ton of equity, but I don't think shoving adds any fold equity against any of Hero's made hands, at least not after I overbet flop, he raises, and V2 shoves. And if Hero is on a draw it's not as good as mine so I don't want him to fold it. If we both hold a flush draw and it hits, all the money is going in anyway so I'm not losing value from Hero by just flatting. Hero is either in or he's not after V2 shoves, so I can just call with the plan to call a shove, and give Hero the chance to make a mistake and either fold or check down a better hand.

    I still don't know what V2 had. Maybe AK or KQ, maybe JQ. Maybe even a combo draw like TJ that has middle pair, a backdoor straight, and a flush draw.



  • FoldtoMyRaiseFoldtoMyRaise Posts: 312Subscriber
    edited June 2015
    I think stack sizes are awkward after V2 shoves. After V1 calls V2's shove and then you shove, is the villian giving himself the correct pot odds to call your shove? Would you have folded if V1 shoved the turn? Is there merit in V1 shoving in this spot after V2 shoves to get hero off a made hand? I am not sure if V1 flatting makes any sense if V1 had a draw or a made hand like a set or a monster draw like AcQc or QcJc. Should V1 shove his AcQc QcJc and/or his entire range of strong made hands and strong flush draws here to get hero off of a strong made hand?

    I understand there are a lot of cards to fade on the turn. What if V1 had a strong made hand like a top or middle set? Should/would V1 be afraid of getting you to fold your worse made hands with a flop shove and therefore just flat to get you to call with a worse made hand or would he be more afraid of both you and V2 having some sort of strong draws?
  • ShinKage13ShinKage13 Posts: 59Subscriber
    nh, wp :)
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,098Subscriber
    ANason21 said:
    FoldtoMyRaise said:
    Why can't V1 have a set here? Couldn't V1 be overbetting the pot to extract max value from V2. When hero raises, what kind of range does the V1 put hero in from V1? Sets, two pair, AA, and AK and flush draws. When V1 flat calls a shove from V2 with hero still left to act, ALARM BELLS should start ringing. Would V1 flat call here with AA or AK with hero still left to act or fold? V1 probably does not want hero to fold draws and possibly AK. V1 may have AA and less likely to have AK in his range this spot and definitely has TT and KK in his range. I think this hand depends on how tight V1 really is and how he plays AA and AK in this spot. I think hero may well be in a bad situation where hero is up against a better made hand in the form of a set KK or TT from V1 and drawing hand from V2.
    So V1 is over betting the pot as a lead, which folds out many of the draws, but then only flat calling because he wants to keep Hero's draws in? That doesn't make any sense to me.
    Precisely right! :tu:
    This is why V1 can NEVER have a set!
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,098Subscriber
    wp! I think V1 played it well also.
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