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2/5: Bottom set on pretty dry board

I start the hand with 1370 pre. He has me covered. Ug+2 opens to $20. I call with 2h 2c. I've never played with him and I only have an hour with him. He hasn't opened yet in the hour I've played.

Flop 2d 7h qs (its either qs or 7s). Either way it was a rainbow.

He bets $30 on the flop and I think and I make it $115.

Turn is Ks. He thinks counts out his green chips for $400 total and then open ships for my entire stack.

I tank.

Fold? Call?

Is there enough combos of kq/aces vs kings? I think the queen was a spade. But I am curious what people think based on qs or not.

Comments

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Large overbets in my experience are mostly protection bets. He only called your flop bet so I discount set of queens. Kq is pretty likely but this feels like ak. Another player dependent thing. If you have seen a player overplay hands then I think its a call.

    On such a dry board I can only think he is protecting from is the backdoor flush. Which I have seen.

    Its sick but I think its a call. I just dont see players making such a good level play to shove with the nuts hoping to get called by a good player. They value bet.

    Wendy
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    Can you describe the player more? How old is he? Have you seen him play in ANY other hands that give you information? How did he react to your raise? At Lucky Chances in San Francisco this is fold. In other places I am not sure.

    I mean... In a vacuum I have to say fold. This is a gross gross over bet which I think is KK or QQ a fair amount of the time. With the sizing you have to be right here A LOT.

    Villain spazzing out with AA or AK is unimaginable to me but I could obv be wrong. It is just super hard for me to see a normal recreational player not play a hand for an hour then just ship one pair for 260BB's.

    KQ is the only other hand he could do this with but wouldn't he be somewhat scared of a set?

    I've seen it all tho and anything is possible.

    I would have tanked for awhile and folded.
  • I agree with you on the queens. I didn't really consider that at all. He ended up having kings. So, it was a turned set over flopped set. The sick part is I almost folded. I asked a player, I respect at the table, later on what he thinks and he said he doubts the villain plays aces that way, and most likely kings. He even said I don't think villain raises pre with kq. I wasn't sure how tight he was or his opening range was limp kq. I know I didn't see him raise pre for an hour, but that can be a few things. I figured kings makes the most sense, but I figured there are enough aces/kq combos. I thought it was weird for him to over ship the pot hoping I would call with a set.

    thanks for your input.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Wow I would not have thought that. Its so hard by him to get called with anything other than what you had. I hope I could fold there. I have folded in this kind of spot to a good player that I knew but not an unknown.

    Wendy
  • He is about 60 years old. I saw a hand earlier when he had a set on a raised pot. He checked to the raiser on the flop and c/r for 110 more. I am blanking on other hands. I only got about an hour with him. So, this hurts with knowledge of the villain.

    Reaction to raise: He was like how much? and I told him and he calls. It was a quick call. I figured if he had a set, he would have thought about it for more then a second. It was a weird push, and I know gross over bets usually mean huge hands.

    For me it was hard to fold, and I did tank. I had him count his money I counted mine. I thought for a good 3 minutes before calling. Also at the table: I had a good image, and I felt I had a big edge over the table. Even though the hand can be +ev not saying it is. Would you recommend a fold b/c of these reasons?
  • This really comes down to how many times you think he opens and plays KQ this way. it is possibility but the fact that the guy is over usually lends to the belief that he is super strong. Crazy overbet--I think it is much easier if he check raises all in on the turn--where I would definitely find a fold.

    Bart
  • kessma Posts: 12Member
    He seems to have done something Bart proposes, but rather accidentally allthough I think Bart's tweet was about rivers. Bomb rivers if hou are super strong if your opponent either has a strong hand or nothing. If he had any thought process then this is a great play ecause on the flop you are either very strong or you have nothing. Personally, I think older man are not capable of levelling you into a fold so that means he wants a call which means you are beat and it's a fold.
  • I think I actually fold this for 200+bb against a 60-year-old unknown. I think this is KK a lot. Gross spot.
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