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1/3 NL hand analysis @ Bellagio. Q high flush facing large raise on river

snapfade Posts: 8Subscriber
edited June 2015 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
I haven't been at the table very but villain appears to be a solid player, he appears to me to have a fairly TAG image.
Effective stacks are $500, hero has Q 2 in the SB. 2 limpers, I complete to $3, BB checks.
Flop is 8 J 9
Hero bets $10
Villain in the BB calls
UTG+1 calls
Pot is now ~$40

Turn is 3
Hero bets $20
Villain calls
UTG+1 calls
Pot is now ~ $120

River is 10
Hero checks
Villain bets $20
UTG+1 folds
Hero raises to $80
Villain re-raises to $200
Hero??

Also, please critique my play prior to the river. Should I be betting out of position with a draw? Should I even complete from the SB?

I'll update with results later.

Thanks!

Update: I called the river bet like an idiot, I was pretty sure I was toast but couldn't make myself fold. As most of you figured he had the A high flush. Very rarely is a player at this level going to 3-bet the river with out the nuts (or near nuts), I should have known that. So, the consensus seems to be completing preflop is ok, betting flop not terrible, should have check/called turn, and bet/fold river. Also, folding pre would have been fine seeing the mess I got myself into here ;)
Thanks for the comments everyone!

Comments

  • tensor0910 Posts: 123Subscriber
    I think PF is OK. Flop...I'm leaning toward a check to keep weaker flushes in. Turn changes nothing. River I'd probably bet/fold here. Even a check/call isnt too bad ( although I feel like weak flushes would want to just get to SD ). But I disagree w/ the c/r. the J, T, and Q are exposed. You're only gonna get called by better flushes. Even 9c7c beats you. I'm hoping you folded.
  • Johnny_UtahJohnny_Utah Posts: 402Subscriber
    edited June 2015
    I don't mind PF. I would bet OTF as well. OTT I could see a case for either checking or betting..

    OTR I like bet-folding. When you check-raise and V 3bets, I can't imagine your good. It's a really interesting line from the V. Looks like he bet the $20 to induce and it worked. I prefer a standard value bet OTR and then you can get away from it.

    As played, I am folding on the river.
  • ANason21ANason21 Posts: 166Subscriber
    Completing from the SB is fine.

    The flop is really wet and fairly dynamic. Usually those boards favor whoever has position--I'd likely check-call the flop.

    After leading on the flop, the 3 is an okay card to keep barreling if you think Vs are holding draws that they'd call a flop bet with but release on the turn. Not very likely at the sizing that you picked, though. Probably go a little bigger if you're going to continue betting there, but checking is just fine too.

    I don't like the check-raise with a non-nut flush on the river. When you check-raise, what worse hands are calling? Baby flushes would likely fold. Straights will fold. Sets will fold. Once V 3-bets the river, you can easily fold.
  • FoldtoMyRaiseFoldtoMyRaise Posts: 312Subscriber
    Fold preflop. I think it is a leak to complete from the small blind with a weak drawing hand OOP in the worst possible position. One obvious problem is that almost always you do not make the nut flush and your hand is vulnerable to A high and K high flushes. So there are REVERSE IMPLIED ODDS (RIO) when you decide to play this hand. This is hand is an implied odds hand. Everyone limped... So how are you going to get paid enough OOP against weak ranges for this to be a profitable implied odds hand? Will you be able to take it away / bluff enough OOP/worst position to make this hand worth playing? If you hit a Queen on flop or turn are you planning on getting away from the hand when you bet and people call or raise you? Are you willing or going to call down a RIO hand when you hit your Q? How happy will you be if you hit your Q and you need to call down on all streets or are called down on every street to get to showdown?

    4 players to the flop and you lead first to act, which looks pretty strong. What are your opponents calling you with that they limped in with? I think it may be too optomistic to get through 3 people with this Cbet semibluff as there are too many players. You have the worst position . What is your image? Effective stack sizes are probably ok. How does the flop hit your opponents limping ranges?

    The turn 3 is brick I would not double barrel this card with 2 other people still in the hand and you being OOP. Your turn bet sizing is too small if you are double barreling to get them to fold. Bet larger if you think you can get your opponents to fold. I think the pot on the turn is $100 and not $120 if you bet $20 and two other people called. Check your math.

    On the river I do not like check-raising without the A high flush. I would bet / fold in this spot. Also his river bet is very strange and as played I think this is an inducing bet on his part. I think given the action he probably has either the straight flush (9c7c) or the A high flush. Is this villian able to value bet thin? When he re-raises you I think at 1/3 this is a snap fold unless I have seen him bet/3bet bluff raise the river very frequently and/or the villian seriously overvalue his hands.
  • Examinedexercises Posts: 26Subscriber
    I think preflop, flop and turn are all fine. I might even bet a bit more on the turn (25-30) considering how wet the board is. Checking the turn is okay too.
    on the river i generally bet/fold.

    As played though- villain's 20 bet into a pot of 120 looks really really weak. I think he makes this play with any Q,any 7, all flushes, and possibly some rivered two pair hands ( though not always).
    ANason said there is no value in c/raising the river. I disagree. If villain's bet was bigger -let's say 60 or more i would completely agree. But his small bet of 20 allows him to be making this bet with a lot of hands we beat. I would also argue that even perceived solid players at 1-3 have a hard time folding worse flushes to us here and sometimes they will get frustrated and call us w even just the straight.
    raising to 80 might be a bit too much. I might raise to 60-70 instead, hoping to induce crying calls from worse.
    Calling villains 3bet on the river is spewy. if you are going to c/raise villain's small bet its a very easy fold when he 3bets.
  • ANason21ANason21 Posts: 166Subscriber
    Examinedexercises said:

    ANason said there is no value in c/raising the river. I disagree. If villain's bet was bigger -let's say 60 or more i would completely agree. But his small bet of 20 allows him to be making this bet with a lot of hands we beat. I would also argue that even perceived solid players at 1-3 have a hard time folding worse flushes to us here and sometimes they will get frustrated and call us w even just the straight.
    raising to 80 might be a bit too much. I might raise to 60-70 instead, hoping to induce crying calls from worse.
    Calling villains 3bet on the river is spewy. if you are going to c/raise villain's small bet its a very easy fold when he 3bets.
    I don't know. If he's putting a $20 bet out on a $120 river there are two reasons he is doing it: (1) as a blocking bet, and (2) to induce. You'd expect a true value-bet to be bigger. So if it's a blocking bet he will reason that you would only raise with better, and he's not going to call any raise at all, no matter how small (I've even seen people fold to min-raises in spots like this). And if he is doing it to induce he has you crushed.
  • ANason21ANason21 Posts: 166Subscriber
    There seems to be something off with the pot-sizing here. By my calculations it's only about $100 after the turn action. Either way, though, the $20 on the river is still a blocking/inducing size.
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    Fold preflop if you don't know how to play postflop without a nutted hand. You can call pre if you're not afraid to bluff and know how to handle your opponents with a marginal one pair hand.
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    FoldtoMyRaise said:
    Fold preflop. I think it is a leak to complete from the small blind with a weak drawing hand OOP in the worst possible position. One obvious problem is that almost always you do not make the nut flush and your hand is vulnerable to A high and K high flushes. So there are REVERSE IMPLIED ODDS (RIO) when you decide to play this hand. This is hand is an implied odds hand. Everyone limped... So how are you going to get paid enough OOP against weak ranges for this to be a profitable implied odds hand? Will you be able to take it away / bluff enough OOP/worst position to make this hand worth playing? If you hit a Queen on flop or turn are you planning on getting away from the hand when you bet and people call or raise you? Are you willing or going to call down a RIO hand when you hit your Q? How happy will you be if you hit your Q and you need to call down on all streets or are called down on every street to get to showdown?

    4 players to the flop and you lead first to act, which looks pretty strong. What are your opponents calling you with that they limped in with? I think it may be too optomistic to get through 3 people with this Cbet semibluff as there are too many players. You have the worst position . What is your image? Effective stack sizes are probably ok. How does the flop hit your opponents limping ranges?


    You're saying a lot of conflicting things. How can you say that we don't have implied odds because their ranges are too weak but then say we can't bluff because there are too many people and someone will have something? This doesn't make sense, if they're folding too much to have implied odds, then we should start bluffing more since they fold a lot. And if they are calling too much to where we shouldn't bluff, then I would say we do have some implied odds. Can't be both ways.



  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,083SubscriberProfessional
    Preflop is fine

    Flop you have a big draw but its a draw. I want max fold equity so a big check raise should do it

    Then if called by a field player i can pretty much put him in a draw too. and that generally means a flush draw So i am betting turn big too.

    On river i would then check fold to a big bet and call a small bet As played you are just generally smoked
  • FoldtoMyRaiseFoldtoMyRaise Posts: 312Subscriber
    @Dr Gambol. Most 1/3 games are filled with people who tend to call too much and fold too little and bluff too little. Hero's cbet bluffs will have a hard time getting through when hero miss the flop. I just don't see how hero will be able to make enough value hands and make enough from them them to offset the times when one misses the flop and has to fold on the flop or the turn being OOP with a weak hand or the times you are overflushed or times when you have a Q with the weaker kicker and lose money to a better Q or overcard.There will also be times when you make your flush and do not get enough action / value out from hands that you beat and may be drawing dead or very thing from being overflushed.
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    FoldtoMyRaise said:
    @Dr Gambol. Most 1/3 games are filled with people who tend to call too much and fold too little and bluff too little. Hero's cbet bluffs will have a hard time getting through when hero miss the flop. I just don't see how hero will be able to make enough value hands and make enough from them them to offset the times when one misses the flop and has to fold on the flop or the turn being OOP with a weak hand or the times you are overflushed or times when you have a Q with the weaker kicker and lose money to a better Q or overcard.There will also be times when you make your flush and do not get enough action / value out from hands that you beat and may be drawing dead or very thing from being overflushed.
    Well, you can't cbet bluff as a limper. Cbet means continuation bet, as in you raised preflop and then bet the flop.

    I also agree that a simple bet on the flop will often not get thru the field. However, the rules permit that you may bet more than once. You may check and raise. You can bet twice the size of the pot on the river. You can just fold if the board has a bad bluffing runout. You can bomb away if the board runs out shitty for your opponents. You can bluff the flop and turn the Q. You can bluff the flop and hit running flush cards.

    How I play weak hands in spots like this is just to play good, solid, aggressive poker using reads I've acquired on my opponents and exploiting their tendencies, whether they be too loose or too tight postflop.
  • FoldtoMyRaiseFoldtoMyRaise Posts: 312Subscriber
    Yeah not cbet, but bet into the field is what I meant OOP in a 4 way pot.

    You can also bluff and bet but many times in the 1/3 and 1/2 games I have played people will station you in a limped pot and you typically will get stationed by one of your 3 opponents who will call you down with top or middle pair or good draw... especially if they have reason to believe you are an aggressive opponent who likes to bluff a lot and complete in the sb with a very wide range. I just don't think you will be able to get your bluffs through enough if you have an aggressive bluffy image. At the right table where people fold alot in limped pots, it would be might be ok if you are willing to double barrel and drive limped pots. Also I do not think you will be able to make a value hand often enough for it to be profitable if you are strictly going by value.
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