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Good Fold?

wildncrazyguywildncrazyguy Posts: 422Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Folded on the turn here. I noctied in reviewing my online hands a big leak is calling turn raises since it seems like rarely when someone raises the turn are they actually behind. Crappy kicker but in position. Villian could have set or better kicker I guess.

Merge, $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (MP3): $338.96 (169.5 bb)
CO: $59.53 (29.8 bb)
BTN: $204.15 (102.1 bb)
SB: $178.88 (89.4 bb)
BB: $279.90 (140 bb)
UTG+2: $163.07 (81.5 bb)
MP1: $111.35 (55.7 bb)
MP2: $73.67 (36.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Td Jh
UTG+2 calls $2, 2 folds, Hero raises to $9, 4 folds, UTG+2 calls $7

Flop: ($21) 3s 2c Jc (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $14, UTG+2 calls $14

Turn: ($49) 4d (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $24.50, UTG+2 raises to $73.50, Hero folds

Results: $98 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: 3s 2c Jc 4d
Hero mucked Td Jh and lost (-$47.50 net)
UTG+2 mucked and won $95 ($47.50 net)

Comments

  • WackabrewWackabrew Posts: 400Subscriber
    Absent any reads or other information about the villian this is likely a good fold. Villian could have any number of hands that have us killed. your line of bet bet indicates that at the very least you have top pair, if not top pair beat. If you have some sort of meta game or history with villian it would be helpful to know, but for now, good fold
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    Given the villain limp-called from early position, he is more likely to be a weak player and so will not have much (if any) turn semi-bluff/bluff range. That makes this a fold.

    Raising JTo from this position pre-flop is questionable however, especially if you have decent players behind you. By the turn, betting this top pair is getting to be pretty thin, especially if the limp-caller will fold most medium pocket pairs.
  • bobo1384 Posts: 145Subscriber
    bet turn bigger,

    the turn bet looks weak and against aggro online players he might bluff raise with worse forcing you to fold.

    as played you gotta fold
  • regfish Posts: 34Member
    OminousCow said

    Given the villain limp-called from early position, he is more likely to be a weak player and so will not have much (if any) turn semi-bluff/bluff range. That makes this a fold.

    Raising JTo from this position pre-flop is questionable however, especially if you have decent players behind you. By the turn, betting this top pair is getting to be pretty thin, especially if the limp-caller will fold most medium pocket pairs.
    Readless opening JTo in this spot is not boarderline, it's -EV imo. Also I think with no information on villain, betting the turn may be thin but is better than check deciding on rivers since you really can't make a good decision if villain bets the river.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    regfish said

    Readless opening JTo in this spot is not boarderline, it's -EV imo.
    I agree a 100% with that.
    But we had this discussion before, and Dan seems to have a different opinion.
  • surfdealer Posts: 21Member
    regfish said

    Readless opening JTo in this spot is not boarderline, it's -EV imo. Also I think with no information on villain, betting the turn may be thin but is better than check deciding on rivers since you really can't make a good decision if villain bets the river.
    is it better to bet thin on the turn and check back river?

    or to check turn and either call a river bet or bet ourselves IP

    *and take note of him calling with a lower PP on the turn and not betting river OR take note of him betting out the river with a bluff or anything lower than a jack after he sees us check back the turn*
  • wildncrazyguywildncrazyguy Posts: 422Subscriber
    whatsyourplay? said
    regfish said

    Readless opening JTo in this spot is not boarderline, it's -EV imo.
    I agree a 100% with that.
    But we had this discussion before, and Dan seems to have a different opinion.
    Yeah I think J10 in the highjack is a raise. I'm in late position and limping more and more I just dont like. Its harder to deinfe your hand preflop and you give the blinds a free look at the flop. Even hands like 55 upfront I like to raise which may be -ev arguably but with good players if I limp call they have me pegged to pocket prs or suited connectors and if I only get 2 callers (most of the time) I can cbet and many times sucessfully and just shut down if I get called. Of course when you're up against weaker players than yeah limping is probably better. I do think theres merit though as to never limping- just fold or raise. It diguises your hand range more. I'll open sometimes in late position with real speculative hands sometimes or trash - regs give me more action, I can get big pots if I hit, etc. Kindve blabbed on a bit. Most people in merge are like 17/5. I'm like 27/20. I think thats better although I have tightened up a bit lately preflop since everyone else has nit stats.
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