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2/5 Tough spot w/ AK

Scorcho1108Scorcho1108 Posts: 57Subscriber
edited June 2015 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Alright, so I'll try to set everything up as best as I can.

Effective Stacks about 600.

The previous hand I had gotten in all in w/ AK against another AK and chopped, this was after making a big three bet in the BB against a raise and four callers earlier in the hand.

I get dealt AcKc in the small blind. UTG raises to $20 and gets four callers. I decide to flat, because I felt that three betting again in almost exactly the same scenario as last time would have brought an overshove from the field and I didn't want that.

Flop comes AhJc6d

I check, with the intention of check raising. It checks through

Turns comes the 8c

I bet out $50. UTG (The initial raiser) raises it to $150. He is a decent, knowledgeable player who is capable of making a bluff raise if he thinks he can get away with it. two folds, then MP, who I don't have a solid read on, raises all in for $425. Everyone else folds.

I've got TPTK with the NFD. What do I do?

Comments

  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    what to do???
    create a range for the MP shover...

    typically, a guy who calls a pre flop raise and 3-bet shoves on the turn in never bluffing.
    I'd give him a range of AJ, A8, 66, 88, J8s and JJ. If he's tricky, he could show up with a combo draw (FD & SD) - making T 9, 9 7 and Q T part of his range.
    Against that range we're about 50/50... but that would only be if we're heads up. (Take out QT and we're a 45% dog.)

    now create a range for the raiser!

    Typically - you're going to have 6 FD outs if UTG never folds. Because one player may have two cards and the 6 may give the other player a full house. Here, I'm not sure that a K, which gives you 2-pair can win you the pot here.

    But it depends on the players...

    Unless your opponents are uber-spewy or droolers, I don't see this as a tough spot at all.
    Against a turn raise and a shove on a flushing board... it's an easy fold.
    by 1Bonezy
  • Arenzano Posts: 1,386Subscriber
    edited June 2015
    Fold. You might be ahead of the UTG but not MP who shoved over the $150.

    Also no reason to not 3b with your holding.
  • JimPsaros Posts: 107Subscriber
    With all of that turn action it has to be a fold. No question. Though I don't buy the logic that you didn't 3 bet preflop with AK, because you feared someone would ship over the top. If they do ship over the top of you because they wrongly believe your are 3 betting light then you are in a great spot to call and most likely be in front. What more do you want?

    The other point to make is that the previous hand you showed you were raising with a premium hand, so why do you think they won't believe that you have hand this time?
  • ACK Posts: 428Subscriber
    I feel like one pair is rarely good here.

    You have 8 nut outs so you need to be 4.5 to 1 to make the call. You have to call 375 to win 725 or 1000 is raiser also calls. You are not getting correct odds to call to hit you flush.
  • Jack7777 Posts: 651Subscriber
    Sounds like a set to me. I fold.
  • mk4sheldon Posts: 18Subscriber
    It's a clear fold. He has a set or aj. An wants to take it down now, because of the club draw that came in.
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