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2/5 @ Maryland Live - go for thin value or check down?

ANason21ANason21 Posts: 166Subscriber
edited June 2015 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
First time playing with V -- no real reads, but does not seem like a winning player based on three hours of playing. Limp calls a lot and plays straightforwardly post flop. Hero's image is likely TAGgy. No one has seen any big bluffs but haven't shown any really strong hands either. Effective stack with V is $550.

UTG & V in UTG+1 limp, Hero raises to 25 with J Q from the Hi-jack. Button, SB, and V call. Pot is about $100.

Flop T K A

V checks. Hero bets $60, and V Calls. Pot is $220 with $465 behind.

Turn 6

V checks, Hero bets $155, and V calls. Pot is $530 with $310 behind.

River 5

V checks. Hero?

Comments

  • ACK Posts: 428Subscriber
    Bet for value.

    He can have AT, AK, KT, TT, AQ , AJ

  • samangr Posts: 23Subscriber
    I think it's an award spot due to stack sizes. I don't ser room for a bet fold here as any reasonable value bet commits us. At the same time we could get call by worse in the form of two pair or maybe an A with FD . It is very unlikely that he has the nut flush as the only reasonable combination for that would be qj of clubs. We would have heard from that ott I think. Other small flushes could be 89cc or 78 cc. With those it's unlikely we get cr.
    On the other hand the number of two pair combos or A with FD are numerous.

    I think we could bet 170 for thin value and call the shove.
  • bulldozzzzzzzzzzzer Posts: 15Subscriber
    This is a value bet all day and not even close. I would be glad to get stacks in here. The likelihood of a flush is very low due to hand-combinatorics. Based on my live read I would bet at least $150 and call any push. There are far too many hands you are ahead of.
  • Bonezy Posts: 82Subscriber
    I would def bet it and hope he cant fold 2 pair type hands and also hands that have a pair and a flush draw. Im torn between jamming and betting like 1/3 or 1/4th pot. It all depends how strong we think he is but I think this has to be a value bet here. Also do you really think he is going to check call a flush on every street? I feel like its a pair and flush draw type hand. Checking back is only and option against a nitty guy who you know wont call you with worse than a flush. From what you said in the op I think we can get value off this guy.
  • ANason21ANason21 Posts: 166Subscriber
    We have to win over 50% of the time when called for it to be profitable to bet, right? So it comes down to determining whether he has as many combos he calls with that we beat as he does flushes in his range.

    I figure every flush is calling, and I think he can hold lots of them. From this guy, I wouldn't necessarily expect to hear from his flushes until the river -- so like any two- or even three-gapped flush is possible. Say something like QJ, Q9, J9, J8, 98, 97, 96, 87, 86, 85, 76, 75, 74, 65, 64, 63, 54, 53, 43, and 32 - 20 combos. Maybe the smaller ones bet or raise earlier, but I can see the bigger flushes check-calling right to the river. People just love to slow play big hands, and flopped flushes fit that category.

    I did not think he'd call bets on three streets on that board with a pair plus flush draw type hand, so that leaves two pair and sets in his river calling range. Some nittier regs will even fold two pair here to three streets of pressure. AA and KK would have been bet pre flop, and maybe even AK, so that leaves AT (9), KT (9), TT (3), and maybe some combos of AK. If we take AK out of his range entirely, then we have 21 combos of hands that call and lose to us (if we assume he is playing all unsuited combos of AT and KT, which he may not be), and 20 combos that call and beat us.

    Suppose instead that he folds unsuited broadway hands. Now he only has three combos of AT, three of KT, and three of sets. If that's the case, even if he is folding half of the suited connector/gapper type hands listed above pre-flop, he is calling with a range that wins more than half the time.

    Maybe my analysis of his possible flush holdings is off, but this seems like a really thin spot to me.
  • Jack7777 Posts: 653Subscriber
    I want to find out where I am with this hand on the flop. I bet/fold the flop, maybe a pot sized bet, plus 10-20.00. If called, I evaluate further action, folding to a big bet. As played, a thin value bet is ok, but I would not call a raise.
  • ANason21ANason21 Posts: 166Subscriber
    Jack7777 said:
    I want to find out where I am with this hand on the flop. I bet/fold the flop, maybe a pot sized bet, plus 10-20.00. If called, I evaluate further action, folding to a big bet. As played, a thin value bet is ok, but I would not call a raise.
    I don't like this one bit. I never like betting just to "find out where I am," and a huge bet on this flop just gives V a chance to fold most, if not all, of his worse hands and continue only with hands that beat you.
  • Jack7777 Posts: 653Subscriber
    I'm a nit. If I make that bet, everybody but a flush folds. I take down the pot. I take down a few pots after the flop is just as good as playing one big pot to the river. Anybody holding the Q probably calls getting 4 for 1. Then if one calls, the others have even better odds to call with draws.

    I play online mostly, so I see a lot of people get there. It probably makes me more willing to take the money Alex.
  • ANason21ANason21 Posts: 166Subscriber
    edited June 2015
    Jack7777 said:
    I'm a nit. If I make that bet, everybody but a flush folds. I take down the pot. I take down a few pots after the flop is just as good as playing one big pot to the river. Anybody holding the Q probably calls getting 4 for 1. Then if one calls, the others have even better odds to call with draws.

    I play online mostly, so I see a lot of people get there. It probably makes me more willing to take the money Alex.
    What you said in the second sentence is the reason you should not bet like that. You get hands that are worse than yours to fold, and hands that are better the call. That's the opposite of what you want to happen.
  • Jack7777 Posts: 653Subscriber
    I like threads with a spoiler. How did this hand turn out?
  • ANason21ANason21 Posts: 166Subscriber
    Spoiler:
    I checked the river. He turned over KTdd and I scooped the pot. The point of this thread isn't really how the hand turned out, however, but whether I missed value on the river. The results certainly make it look like I should have bet the river since I won, but I don't know if V would have called with two pair facing another big bet on the river.
  • FoldtoMyRaiseFoldtoMyRaise Posts: 312Subscriber
    edited June 2015
    Akward stack sizes. What about betting a little bit smaller on the turn and then you could might be able to bet/fold on the river. $100 into $210 on the turn. pot $410. 365 behind. bet / fold 125 on the river if called pot will be $660. As played, I would try a small bet on the river if villian is not a super calling station like $125. If villian is a calling station, that overvalues 2 pairs and sets, then I would shove if you think villian could have more than 50% of combos of sets and two pair vs <50% flush hands. Villian may not believe you have a flush given you are the preflop raiser and the cards on the flop. If you bomb the river as played does villian think you are are polarized to the nuts or underpair or busted flush/straight draw or A-x not two pair combs here and will not believe you hold the nut flush?
  • WilburTrey Posts: 44Subscriber
    I hear on just about every podcast/video so far... you need to value own yourself often to be playing optimally. with that information, I think you have to thin value raise the river.
  • ANason21ANason21 Posts: 166Subscriber
    FoldtoMyRaise said:
    Akward stack sizes. What about betting a little bit smaller on the turn and then you could might be able to bet/fold on the river. $100 into $210 on the turn. pot $410. 365 behind. bet / fold 125 on the river if called pot will be $660. As played, I would try a small bet on the river if villian is not a super calling station like $125. If villian is a calling station, that overvalues 2 pairs and sets, then I would shove if you think villian could have more than 50% of combos of sets and two pair vs <50% flush hands. Villian may not believe you have a flush given you are the preflop raiser and the cards on the flop. If you bomb the river as played does villian think you are are polarized to the nuts or underpair or busted flush/straight draw or A-x not two pair combs here and will not believe you hold the nut flush? </div>
    I think this is mostly right. I may not go all the way down to $100 -- I like to keep my bet sizing fairly consistently above 50% on both the flop and turn so I'm not giving off any bet-sizing tells for anyone who is paying attention. But I think betting $115 instead of $155 may have been better. Pot would be $450 with $350 behind, and a $125-150 bet-fold on the river would likely maximize our value nicely when we are ahead while minimizing our losses when he does have an oddly played flush.
  • ANason21ANason21 Posts: 166Subscriber
    WilburTrey said:
    I hear on just about every podcast/video so far... you need to value own yourself often to be playing optimally. with that information, I think you have to thin value raise the river.
    That's kind of what this thread is about -- but you can't take that information and assume that you should just bet every river when checked to if you have a value hand. Put in terms of value-owning, you can value-own yourself up to, but not including, 50% of the time and still be profitable. Obviously I know that I am value-owning myself against every flush he could hold. What I'm trying to figure out here is -- when Villain calls a river bet, does he have a hand that I beat at least half the time.
  • WilburTrey Posts: 44Subscriber
    edited June 2015
    in your hand analysis you came up with

    "If we take AK out of his range entirely, then we have 21 combos of hands that call and lose to us (if we assume he is playing all unsuited combos of AT and KT, which he may not be), and 20 combos that call and beat us."


    the combos alone say we win half the time making it a good thin bet. That is assuming he will play the 2 and 3 gap suited hands you think he will, if he won't play those then he has even less hands to have the flush.


    The villian is as you say," does not seem like a winning player based on three hours of playing. Limp calls a lot and plays straightforwardly post flop."

    Then we look at the post play. He check calls you down. That tells me his likely hands are

    2 pair, (A10, K10,) or AQ , AJ ,

    He either has 2 pair and is scared of a flush or straight, so he is in call down mode as most live players are showdown monkeys. Or he is on a combo draw. Both of which with miss the river. The AQ and AJ SHOULDN'T call a thin value bet, but the A10, K10, will. If he has the flush he likely re raises on the turn, not wanting to get counterfeited on the river with a small flush, and or seeing the board pair. You could have AA, 10,10, or K,K, here as well as a flush yourself. I doubt he puts you on QJ betting on such a "scary" board, which is why you should value own yourself. The scarier the board, the more likely you are to get called by someone with weaker.

    Ultimately, I think you are ahead here as it is played more often then you are beat and should try and extract value from two pair. You might even be able to get smaller flushes to fold as hard as you played the hand.

    In his spot could you call a non all in with 35 of clubs that bet seems so strong since you aren't just shoving in. I think thin betting this hand is the Plus play. While on the river it's not always right to thin value I think this hand is a must, at how passively the player has played the hand.




  • ANason21ANason21 Posts: 166Subscriber
    WilburTrey said:


    Ultimately, I think you are ahead here as it is played more often then you are beat and should try and extract value from two pair. You might even be able to get smaller flushes to fold as hard as you played the hand.

    In his spot could you call a non all in with 35 of clubs that bet seems so strong since you aren't just shoving in. I think thin betting this hand is the Plus play. While on the river it's not always right to thin value I think this hand is a must, at how passively the player has played the hand.

    I agree that this is a bet for the following reasons: it's very unlikely Villain has any flush other than the nut flush. A smaller flush likely would have raised the flop to extract value from/protect against the Hero holding the lone Q. So Q J, Q 9, and maybe Q 8 are the only flushes Villain could hold. Three combos that he'll always call with.

    He could also hold three combos of AT suited, and three combos of KT suited. Even if he only calls with the AT, a thin value bet is still profitable.

    But you are suggesting that he may actually fold a small flush here because of the sizing. Which would mean he would never call with two pair or a set and which would also mean that if he did ever call, we would be beat. So does a shove on the river actually make Villain more likely to call with his two pair hands? If so, then a shove may actually show more profit than a small river bet.
  • WilburTrey Posts: 44Subscriber
    I believe it is villain dependent. If you are doing this say against a player who understands the game, he will likely not call your thin bet with anything. Though most fish will call of with both the small flush and the two pair.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    river

    ship it. I think villain probably has a club and most likely the nut club draw.. or he has the nut flush..

    the only reason why I would check the river is if I had specific information about villain that he is a super slowplayer.. ie someone who is willing to check call flop and turn only to check raise the river. there are fewer players like this and they tend to me the OMC type.

    as played villain can easily have Q Kx Q Tx maybe even TT or AK he was slowplaying ..

    if villain had a flush I would imagine that you would have heard from him by now .. he might have the queen high flush but even then I still think you probably get check raised on the turn.

    ww
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    ANason21 said:
    Spoiler:
    I checked the river. He turned over KTdd and I scooped the pot. The point of this thread isn't really how the hand turned out, however, but whether I missed value on the river. The results certainly make it look like I should have bet the river since I won, but I don't know if V would have called with two pair facing another big bet on the river.
    Yeah you missed value..

    Remember what Bart says in hand reading.. Go back to pre flop.. what is this guy limp calling a raise with???

    then he check calls flop check calls turn?? Is that indicative of a flush?? nope.. you will likely hear from villain on turn at the least with a flush.. If villain doesnt have a flush then you have the nuts..

    Furthermore you line and the board looks so fishy to villain that you are MORE likely to get called not less. the board is so wet and villains never see anyone value bet a straight that he is likely to think you have like pair and flush draw.. getting odds he can hero call..

    so think of it this way. He either has a calling hand or a folding hand. if you ship the 300 he will be getting really good odds to call. if he was going to fold you get nothing more. but if he would call you make $300 more.

    you could even go further with the math by trying to estimate the frequencies of him folding to a certain bet size vs calling but again this board is polarized so I would just go for gold..

    ww
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