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1/2. getting lost after bad turn card

Beatsme Posts: 585Subscriber
edited June 2015 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Villain is very loose and semi aggro. He is capable of bluffing. I've called him down light twice already in this session but the pots were small with no heavy action.
My plan was to lead most turns as I thought villains range was strong otf. 2 pair plus and lower flushes. I dont think villain would raise flop with nut flush. Thoughts on all streets are welcome. My main question here is the river a check fold? I got a little lost otr.

1/2
350 eff
Several limps
I check bb w Kd2d

Flop (10) JdTd7d
I lead 10
Tommie (tattoo arm) raises to 40
I call

Turn (90) 7c
I check
Tommie bets 30
I call

River (145) Ad
I bet 65
Tommie raises to 130
hero?

Comments

  • Texasspichi Posts: 2SubscriberProfessional
    Against a lot of opponents I would reraise flop and barrel any non turn and river to get stacks in. Slowpaying OOP is not very easy but makes sense if you know villan fires often big on turns.
    As played: river is a call since the price is so good and he is capable of bluffing.
    I am not sure if I like turn check-call on that small sizing. Maybe raise to about 90 and check-call this river and betting other rivers makes more sense? If he jams its close but playerdepentand it can be a fold.
  • chequearoundcc Posts: 122Subscriber
    Turn bet sizing stands out to me.
    I always think that players that are capable of splashing around, taking stabs, I always tend to lean towards the assumption that they will be trying to bet a little more with their value hands. After all they need to make the most of their image right?
  • Beatsme Posts: 585Subscriber
    chequearoundcc said:
    Turn bet sizing stands out to me. After all they need to make the most of their image right?
    This guy is not thinking about this at all. Very level one just playing his cards. I read this bet as "I need to bet and I want a call so ill just bet small"
  • chequearoundcc Posts: 122Subscriber
    edited June 2015
    beatsme said:
    chequearoundcc said:
    Turn bet sizing stands out to me. After all they need to make the most of their image right?
    This guy is not thinking about this at all. Very level one just playing his cards. I read this bet as "I need to bet and I want a call so ill just bet small"
    okay fair enough.
    to me it can be level one for a player with this description to just bet the size of his hand.
    in my opinion, from your history, I wouldn't think he isnt too worried about you folding a marginal hand. that's where I was at in my analysis.

    I kind of see where you are coming from. Maybe his thought process after the flop call was that you didn't have the flush. With the flop being suited, you having a flush had to have crossed his mind at some point. Even for a level 0 thinker. Even if he rules it out after your flat call.

    I just cant get away from my original interpretation of his turn bet sizing and how that relates to your description of V
  • Floyd Posts: 160Subscriber
    I think a 4 bet on flop to $120 to build the pot to get stacks in on any turn that is not a T or J is a good line to take. You have the second nuts on the flop.
    What position was V?
    It's a limped pot. Would he limp TT or JJ?
  • Beatsme Posts: 585Subscriber
    Floyd said:

    What position was V?
    It's a limped pot. Would he limp TT or JJ?
    He limped in mp and no he would most likely raise TT and JJ. But he would limp along T7 and J7 suited or not.
    And yes looking back I think a reraise otf would have been the best line.
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    very interesting hand.

    I agree that a loose/semi-aggro player would probably raise TT & JJ - so I would exclude those hands.

    As played - it looks like V raised the flop to "protect" his hand. So here, I give him two pair, sets, str8 and small flushes. His hand range here should be JT, J7, T7, 77 and 89.
    Many more experienced players ignore the flushed flop because it's so rare that some has flopped the flush - so it's not unusual to see non-flushed hands raise.

    On the turn, I like your check/call. But his bet now looks like it's for value. I think after you called the flop - you've told V that you have a flush. The pairing of the 7 seems to have changed his betting strategy from pushing you off your hand - to getting you to call. It's also possible he's still got a small flush and is scared of the 7 - but most guys would just check here on a paired turn. So I think we can take out JT.

    On the river - the naked K wins the hand - so V has got to be concerned that we've got a flush. Yet he raises the river. Unless he's capable of spazzing out with 76os - I really can't make up a hand that we beat. I think it's very unlikely he betting with a str8 unless he's got 8 9 ( which i don't think he raises on the flop). I don't think he's raising with Q 9 (or other QX hand) if we've got a solid winning image. I don't think he's raising the flop with A7.

    So that leaves us with J7, T7 & 77. It's a very small part of his range - but one that makes the most sense. If he's a suited kind of guy - that would be J 7, J 7, T 7 and T 7.
    The min-raise tells me he's not bluffing - he's betting for value. If you think there's any chance that he's doing this with Q X then it's a call. But if I had just sat down and ran into this hand - I think I fold here.
  • TastesLikeBurning Posts: 429SubscriberProfessional
    Grunch:

    T7 makes a lot of sense given villain's line but I sigh call the river raise. If he shows me anything less than a full house, I get on this guy's left and take him to value town.
  • Beatsme Posts: 585Subscriber
    beauregard said:


    On the river - the naked K wins the hand - so V has got to be concerned that we've got a flush. Yet he raises the river. Unless he's capable of spazzing out with 76os - I really can't make up a hand that we beat.
    So would a check/fold be better otr? I was trying to value target smaller flushes... possibly too optimistic now that the board has paired and there are 4 diamonds on board?
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    beatsme said:
    So would a check/fold be better otr? I was trying to value target smaller flushes... possibly too optimistic now that the board has paired and there are 4 diamonds on board?
    to tell you the truth... I probably check/call since our hand is so obvious... right?
    I mean, if we check/raised the river, are we ever getting value from worse? seems doubtful. seems more like a WA/WB scenario.

    I think your idea of getting smaller flushes to call on a 4-flushed board is very optimistic. Any semi-thinking player is probably mucking most of his range on such a scary/wet board.

    On the river - if we bet, we're probably folding out everything except a Q... depending on our image... and we then get raised by hands that crush us (unless V is a complete drooler).

    That's why I liked your check/call on the turn. It lets V think he's ahead and encourages him to keep betting. Once I go into check/call mode, I try not to deviate from it. On occasion, when I've got the stone-cold nuts, I'll check/raise the river.

    the pros here would probably disagree with my betting line/advice. I think most would tell you that the bet/fold line is best... provided that you have the discipline to fold if raised.

    But on paired 4-flushed boards - I prefer taking a lower variance approach... especially in 1/2 games where players can have any two in an unraised pot. I think an aggressive V will value-own himself more often than not, in which case, I believe, we win the max and lose the min. So I'd check/call - unless V shoves the river. Then, it's a check/fold.
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