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1/2 deep turn and river assessments

1/2, 100BB cap, full-ring game in casino. Both Villain and I are $500 effective. Villain is a middle-aged guy who tends to play weak-tight and uses awkward bet sizing. He has gotten very lucky in a few big pots against generally weak opponents. I had recently lost a hand to him with a smaller flush to his larger flush. Otherwise, my image is strong and winning.

There are 3 limps, including the Villain in HJ, and I raise to $12 from the CO with Q J

Everyone folds to Villain who calls. (Pot: $27 after $4 rake)

Flop: Q 10 6

Villain checks, I bet $20, Villain calls. (Pot: $66 after $1 rake)

Turn: 8

Villain leads for $50. I call. (Pot: $166)

River: 4

Villain bets $75. Hero???

I'm thinking I'm behind his range here that he'd lead the turn with: J9, 97, 10 8, slowplayed Q10, Q8, slowplayed KQ+ that he's now afraid will get drawn out, or a draw 75.

I'm only ahead of only a worse Q (unlikely holdings), a pp with a draw on the turn: JJ (unlikely given he didn't pf raise), 99, 77, or air.

Any reason to not fold this? Thoughts on my turn play are appreciated as well.

Comments

  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,989SubscriberProfessional
    Yeah, river is a fold. His line is an obvious value line, and you don't beat anything he'd be value-betting.

    The turn is probably a fold too. Villain is weak-tight, so would certainly check/call all his draws. He's going to suddenly lead out Q9? Especially since you have the Q, there's no TP+FD in his range. Chuckle and fold.
  • Floyd Posts: 160Subscriber
    Yeah I think the turn is a fold. He either made the straight or two pair or was slowplaying QT on flop. Unless you were going to rep a flush on river and turn your hand into a bluff. I think it's a fold
  • Lucere29 Posts: 10Subscriber
    edited June 2015
    Thanks for the comments. I just wanted to check that my assessment of his range was correct given his line/image. I fold the river and he rolls over A K It completely blew my mind given how he played it. I don't think he's smart or capable enough to bluff the 8 on the turn as a scare card and then barrel, after he limp/called pf and check/called the flop. I'm inclined to think that he thought that I whiffed the flop and that he actually had the best hand. Who knows. Every now and then a 1/2 player really surprises you. Then the player instantly says he's done, racks up, and leaves. Lol.
  • tensor0910 Posts: 123Subscriber
    no way you could put him on AK. played it completely backwards. Tell him nh and make a mental note of it next time
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    Lucere29 said:
    Villain is a middle-aged guy who tends to play weak-tight and uses awkward bet sizing.

    There are 3 limps, including the Villain in HJ, and I raise to $12 from the CO with Q J

    Everyone folds to Villain who calls. (Pot: $27 after $4 rake)

    I'm thinking I'm behind his range here that he'd lead the turn with: J9, 97, 10 8, slowplayed Q10, Q8, slowplayed KQ+ that he's now afraid will get drawn out, or a draw 75.
    As played... I don't know how you can call. It definitely seems like the 8 hit him for a straight/two-pair or he was slowplaying a set or big Q.

    But with him showing up with AK - I think you might need to work on sizing up your opponents (and knowing you image). I find it very strange that you think he's showing up with J9, 97 & T8 when it seems like he might only be calling a pfr with the top of his range. After all - if he shows up with AK here, wouldn't QQ, AQ, KK or TT be as likely? He's certainly a weird bird. (Did he show his hand cuz he thought it was best? Or to show a bluff?)

    And him betting into you - thinking you didn't hit anything says a lot about his image of you. (Did you show your smaller flush in the earlier hand? Or quietly muck?)

    Interesting hand - but very strange result
  • Floyd Posts: 160Subscriber
    How do people limp AK in the HJ. That freaks me out. lol. And then flats when the CO iso raises. Sounds like he is one of those guys who has given up raising AK because they say it never hits. And then decides to turn his hand into a bluff on the turn and follows it up on the river. I think he expects you to call with top pair and just praying you fold. Gotta love playing live poker!
  • Lucere29 Posts: 10Subscriber
    Beauregard, the image I gave of myself was what I thought the table thought as a whole at the time. Most of the hands I had been winning were shown down. This happened toward the end of the session, at the point where the players who were calling me light earlier on were now not playing with me as much. Obviously, that doesn't mean that the villain shared the same image. But he had appeared to unless something changed for him after the hand where we both had flushes shortly before this hand (which I did not show, but I did say that I had a lower flush when I mucked). Also, the range I mentioned was what I assigned him at the time. I discounted 1010+ and AQ+ because he only limped pf with limpers behind him instead of raising. I think that's a pretty safe assumption at 1/2 where people are scared to protect their big PPs at limp and call happy tables, no?
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    yeah - sounds like you had a good handle on the table then. Hard to say why AK picks a fight with the other big stack at the table oop.
    just offering some food for thought

    it's really weird that he shows up with A-high - but some rec players like to end their session with a "bang" - I've known a few that would bluff their last hand since they didn't care about the results but were more interested in the "bravado" and "gamble" side of things.
    regardless of results - I liked how you played it - and would fold too without some sick soul read on V
    gh
  • Lucere29 Posts: 10Subscriber
    Yeah I think your assessment is exactly right here considering that he immediately left after this. I can see him going home on cloud 9 saying, "Honey, you should have seen me bluff this young guy! I was amazing! Can I go play tomorrow night too?"
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