Have played with villain once before, seems to be typical older passive guy who calls a decent amount pre and overvalues hands postflop
Eff 500 5 handed. I open A♦ J♦ to 15 utg 3 callers flop A♥ J♥ 6♥
I bet 40, old guy in MP Goes all in for 483 total. Hero????
Now a couple hands before this I notice old guys wife come over which means shes out of money and its time to go, ive seen this before last time I played with the guy. Does this factor make you any more inclined to call here with Top two thinking that villain could just be making a move here with something like AxKh or some random pair plus flush draw?
Comments
That being said, I think you have to ask why is this guy overbetting the pot when it is out of character for him. Is it for value or to scare you out of the pot? Generally, opponents don't overbet monsters like flopped flushes because they are afraid to scare you off. But you have a weird dynamic with him wanting to leave. Is he just saying F it and gambling with an Ace and heart kicker or is he happy to take down the pot now with a monster before he leaves?
If you can remove some of the AxRh hands from his range, then it could be folded.
AdJd 45.99%
AxRh, 33%:hh, Aj, A6, 66, jj 54.01%
he's not bluffing.
he doesn't have a set.
he doesn't have an Ace with the X♥
he's shoving because he's scared of the next card that might counterfeit his hand.
easy fold.
But that's just my read. Maybe I've been given the OMCs too much credit! :oops:
I want the people on the table to think I dont give a shit about money, which is pretty much true as I play properly rolled. In situations like this I will take into account who is on the table, how deep we are, and what longer term edge there might be by making it look like Im gambling it up.
Also, since its a capped game, would winning or losing change your stack in an important way vs other weak players. For example if you just got into the game and there are several weak players with 2-3x the cap then the session profits from getting a larger stack now is another form of EV you need to consider. Without any of those factors I fold.