2/5 external factors leading to huge flop overbet call?

El_Jefecito

Have played with villain once before, seems to be typical older passive guy who calls a decent amount pre and overvalues hands postflop

Eff 500 5 handed. I open A♦ J♦ to 15 utg 3 callers flop A♥ J♥ 6♥
I bet 40, old guy in MP Goes all in for 483 total. Hero????

Now a couple hands before this I notice old guys wife come over which means shes out of money and its time to go, ive seen this before last time I played with the guy. Does this factor make you any more inclined to call here with Top two thinking that villain could just be making a move here with something like AxKh or some random pair plus flush draw?

Floyd

I see what your saying. I think it does come into it but I think it would have to be a live read for me to call. I'd have to be there to decide. Obviously player dependent. From what you've seen of Villans play would he shove a small flopped flush normally if he didn't have to leave?

El_Jefecito

Floyd said:

I see what your saying. I think it does come into it but I think it would have to be a live read for me to call. I'd have to be there to decide. Obviously player dependent. From what you've seen of Villans play would he shove a small flopped flush normally if he didn't have to leave?

I honestly can't say that I've seen this player shove a flopped flush but I don't necessarily think that would be his standard play here which is what lead me to tank and think about this hand a lot more then I normally would

High__Rolla

Probably call. You need to be good here 440/1023 or 43% of the time. Using PPT against the range below, you have 46% without any discounting.

That being said, I think you have to ask why is this guy overbetting the pot when it is out of character for him. Is it for value or to scare you out of the pot? Generally, opponents don't overbet monsters like flopped flushes because they are afraid to scare you off. But you have a weird dynamic with him wanting to leave. Is he just saying F it and gambling with an Ace and heart kicker or is he happy to take down the pot now with a monster before he leaves?

If you can remove some of the AxRh hands from his range, then it could be folded.


AdJd 45.99%
AxRh, 33%:hh, Aj, A6, 66, jj 54.01%

tensor0910

I think that [i]thinking [/i] opponents dont overbet shove the flop w/ nutted hands. This is an old man. in my experience huge shoves from rec. players indicate strength, regardless of flop texture, VPIP, etc. Has V overbet any of his other value hands during the session? I could see him doing this w/ either sets, or a combo draw ( KhQ, KQh, ). I'd puke/fold

beauregard

typically, old passive players who shove on a flushed board have a baby flush.
he's not bluffing.
he doesn't have a set.
he doesn't have an Ace with the X♥
he's shoving because he's scared of the next card that might counterfeit his hand.
easy fold.

El_Jefecito

tensor0910 said:

I think that [i]thinking [/i] opponents dont overbet shove the flop w/ nutted hands. This is an old man. in my experience huge shoves from rec. players indicate strength, regardless of flop texture, VPIP, etc. Has V overbet any of his other value hands during the session? I could see him doing this w/ either sets, or a combo draw ( KhQ, KQh, ). I'd puke/fold

I had not seen villain overbet any hands until this one

beauregard said:

typically, old passive players who shove on a flushed board have a baby flush.
he's not bluffing.
he doesn't have a set.
he doesn't have an Ace with the X♥
he's shoving because he's scared of the next card that might counterfeit his hand.
easy fold.

As a standard I totally agree with this and almost all of the time I would very easily be able to fold this hand, for some reason though the wife thing was weighing on my decision a lot more then anything else

El_Jefecito

High__Rolla said:

Probably call. You need to be good here 440/1023 or 43% of the time. Using PPT against the range below, you have 46% without any discounting.

That being said, I think you have to ask why is this guy overbetting the pot when it is out of character for him. Is it for value or to scare you out of the pot? Generally, opponents don't overbet monsters like flopped flushes because they are afraid to scare you off. But you have a weird dynamic with him wanting to leave. Is he just saying F it and gambling with an Ace and heart kicker or is he happy to take down the pot now with a monster before he leaves?

If you can remove some of the AxRh hands from his range, then it could be folded.


AdJd 45.99%
AxRh, 33%:hh, Aj, A6, 66, jj 54.01%

If that were his range then yes this could be a call but you are forgetting that he could very likely be holding some flopped flush as well in his range which would drastically cut our odds down

MrFizzbin

K♥ Q♥ good fold

JimPsaros

Has to be a fold. Looks like baby flush, or sets. Even in the less likely case that he is doing it with Kh and Ace you are still only flipping.

High__Rolla

LilTucci said:

High__Rolla said:

AdJd 45.99%
AxRh, 33%:hh, Aj, A6, 66, jj 54.01%

If that were his range then yes this could be a call but you are forgetting that he could very likely be holding some flopped flush as well in his range which would drastically cut our odds down

Nope - I included flopped flushes in that range. 33%:hh denotes a top 33% hand that includes two hearts in propoker tools. It's easier to do that than list out all the different combos.

beauregard

LilTucci said:

As a standard I totally agree with this and almost all of the time I would very easily be able to fold this hand, for some reason though the wife thing was weighing on my decision a lot more then anything else

I've seen the wife-thing at our games often - and usually that makes me think he's playing tighter/more correct than normal because she saw he had chips and he'd be embarrassed to go back to her chipless.
But that's just my read. Maybe I've been given the OMCs too much credit! :oops:

FreeLunch

There are other factors I would consider.

I want the people on the table to think I dont give a shit about money, which is pretty much true as I play properly rolled. In situations like this I will take into account who is on the table, how deep we are, and what longer term edge there might be by making it look like Im gambling it up.
Also, since its a capped game, would winning or losing change your stack in an important way vs other weak players. For example if you just got into the game and there are several weak players with 2-3x the cap then the session profits from getting a larger stack now is another form of EV you need to consider. Without any of those factors I fold.