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2/5 line check KK, 6 to flop

El_Jefecito Posts: 119SubscriberProfessional
edited June 2015 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Eff 500, I'm covered by everyone. UTG seems like a pretty nitty indian guy who hasn't really been involved in much in the first few orbits, Hj is a whale who has shown to call down light and is tilting

2 limps early position I open K K to 25 Mp get called behind in 3 spots and limpers call as well

Flop (150) Q 9 5 checks to me, I bet 100, Hj calls and utg calls

Turn (350) A I check turn it checks through to river
-any thoughts on betting this turn for value from Qx / draws?

River (350) 5 UTG bets out 105, hero???

Comments

  • JimPsaros Posts: 107Subscriber
    I'm never betting turn here. What are you getting called by that you're in front of? These guys have called a pretty big flop bet with something, which could include AQ, A9, A5. There are very few Kings left, so KQ is unlikely.
    River hero call would also be a play I don't like. What hand is he firing that you're in front of? 10 J c is the only hand that I can see that you beat given the action. Everything else crushes you.

    Fold the Kings and fight on in another hand.
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    Wow Jim - pretty pessimistic assessment here ^^^.... (although probably correct!)

    I'd have to admit I'd have a very hard time laying down Kowboys here
    but the more I read over the hand, the more it makes sense.

    a nitty Indian guy limps UTG and calls a raise, then check/calls a flop bet... I'd be very concerned about this!
    while A5 and A9 are possible - I'd say AQ, 99 and 55 are more probable. Heck, against some of these guys - I've even seen him show up with AA here!

    we're getting more than 4:1 to call his small bet...
    damn, I so want to call!
    but I think Jim is right - if Indian guy is not spazzing out with QJ - a fold feels like the correct play
  • DavidChan Posts: 1,208Pro
    edited June 2015
    Pot Sizes are wrong on the turn/river. If there is $150 in the preflop pot because of 5 callers against $25 preflop raise, and there is $300 in betting on flop ($100x3), then there is $450 in the pot going to the turn.

    If you am facing a $105 bet on the river, you are getting $555 to $105 Pot Odds (Better than 5:1). You only need to be good here 16% of the time. I think that a tiny river block bet less than 20% of the pot could be a Qx hand blocking river for a cheap showdown occasionally or even a busted JT OESD. I think that you have to cry call KK against this tiny river block bet.
  • lauxen Posts: 95Subscriber
    I want to agree with David, but I just don't think you're good here too much - maybe not even 16%. An actual live nit isn't betting here with only a Q, much less 1/5 pot. I think he's actually just trying to get value from a single Q or KK, tbh. Nits in my game don't want to open up the betting OTR with middle pair. That's scary to them. They'd much rather get to showdown, or c/c. YMMV

    He saw you check the turn, so he's not afraid of a bigger ace. Why would you not barrel again when you picked up TP or 2P (AQ)? He's likely betting ATs, A9s, AJs, AJ, AQ, AQs. And then you have the chance the rec player caught something stupid behind you, like trip 5s.

    Just folding here.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    I agree with David.. villain no matter how nitty is just not betting a weak ace here and really how can he have an ace that is not two pair???

    So given the pot if he can ever bet a Queen like QJ etc.. I think hero has to call. if this guy never bets anything less than an ace here then I dont mind a fold.

    call or fold is squarely having to do with observation and knowing if this guy will ever block bet a worse hand than KK..

    ww
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,989SubscriberProfessional
    I'm squarely in the fold category. Villain is betting into two people on the river. A nitty player NEVER does this with Qx, which is all we're beating. Even getting 5:1 I'm folding.

    More interesting in my mind is the turn and whether to bet or not. There are hands we can still get value from if we size correctly - KQ, TJ, club draws. But are there more hands that call us that we're behind? I think I can find a small value bet on the turn. Really AQ, A9, and A5 are the only viable hands that that ace pushes into the lead.
  • Floyd Posts: 160Subscriber
    I don't believe for a second a nit is limp calling A5 or A9 from UTG. Let alone check calling with middle or bottom pair OTF. With only JT being the real draw on flop and his only two made hands that he is losing to you are AQ and KQ and on turn you lose to AQ aswell. It's very unlikely a nit is going to put out a block bet on river with KQ. This hand is looking a lot like he flopped a set of 9's. Apart from AQ I think it's the only hands he shows up with on the river.
  • Floyd Posts: 160Subscriber
    AQ, 9's full or quads all praying to get called
  • El_Jefecito Posts: 119SubscriberProfessional
    DavidChan said:
    Pot Sizes are wrong on the turn/river. If there is $150 in the preflop pot because of 5 callers against $25 preflop raise, and there is $300 in betting on flop ($100x3), then there is $450 in the pot going to the turn.

    If you am facing a $105 bet on the river, you are getting $555 to $105 Pot Odds (Better than 5:1). You only need to be good here 16% of the time. I think that a tiny river block bet less than 20% of the pot could be a Qx hand blocking river for a cheap showdown occasionally or even a busted JT OESD. I think that you have to cry call KK against this tiny river block bet.
    you are correct David, pot would be 450 going to turn and 555 on river. As it went I thought opponent could have some weak Kq, QJ, QT type hand as this did look like a very weird blocking bet, I did not think opponent was calling a 100 dollar bet on flop with any Ace other then AQ, so I decided to make the crying call on the river. As it turns out though HJ goes allin for 700ish, UTG tanks for 5 minutes and finally decides to call. Obviously I muck at this point

    UTG shows up with flopped set of 55s to take down the hand
    HJ I believe had AQ

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