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Hand reading gone wrong

Effective stack (me) $325, (villain) $500. Playing $1-2 stakes full ring (9)
The villain is a lag and has recently been stealing pots with over bets. Very cocky, plays 80% of hands.
I'm on the button with KJ. 6 limp around to me and I raise to $17. BB all in with $23, everyone folds except villain in mp1, who calls. I call. Flop K33. Pot(81) The villain checks, I bet $40. The villain grimaces and calls 40. Turn J(121) the villain checks. I bet $80. The villain looks like he's in trouble but calls the $80. The river is a 4(281). The villain snaps a all for $357. I tank and figure I'm paying 182 to win 638. My read was that he turned any pair qq-66, Kx, into a bluff because of his check call to the river then blast me. Anyway he turns over 34o!!! For a Fukin boat! I didn't put him on that because he didn't bet/reraise his trips on the flop or turn. WTF WENT WRONG?

Comments

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    edited July 2015
    so villain who is loose and aggro doesnt raise in co?? his range is super weak or super strong.. but he doesnt iso the other player??

    firstly.. you should always always always know how much short stacks have if they are behind you to act.. if you had raised say $10 then you can bet 3 bet to iso ss.. now you can only call..

    this isnt a huge mistake for given stacks but something you always need to be aware of.

    secondly dont show results..it skews our responses.

    ok villain grimaces and then calls flop?? then looks rough and calls turn?? lol these are super easy strength tells. I might have made an even smaller bet to see what he would do on turn. after he calls again you have to put him on a 3.. hope to pair the K or J to get him or just check behind..

    just because he didnt raise flop or turn doesnt make him the bad guy. YOU have to pay attention. when someone plays like they are weak but calls. you just have to give them more respect. How did he put his chips in? quickly? did he tank? all of these live intangibles are super important..

    Hand reading is an art that takes into consideration many factors.. many based on betting patterns but also live tells and he is telegraphing he had a big hand imho..

    ww
  • ANason21ANason21 Posts: 166Subscriber
    edited July 2015
    If he's playing 80% of hands, then he has any connected threes in his range. How would you play a three in his position on this flop? I'd check-call, then check-call turn, then blast the river.

    When playing against maniacs, you have to figure out whether they are a maniac who knows what they are doing or just a straight maniac. It looks like V's game is to make himself look like a straight maniac so he can get paid in spots like this, but that he likely knows what he is doing.

    Also, your range analysis is a bit off, I think. It's like Bart says, go back and look at what happened before the flop. Villain limp-called pre-flop here. Does a splashy lag who plays 80% of his hands really do that with QQ? After a limp-call, I'd put him on the bottom half of his range. He could have any suited cards lower than broadway, off-suit connected hands, low pairs, etc. Then he check-called you on a pretty dry flop. His flop check-calling range has to be weighted towards Kx, 3x, any pairs that limp-called preflop, and maybe some Ax hands with backdoor draws, etc. After check-calling the turn, I'd narrow that range to stronger Kx hands that are getting stubborn and 3x, Once he shoves the river after check-calling twice, you can put him on a value hand as most people won't check-call, check-call, shove as a bluff -- Kx doesn't make sense to bet for value, so the only thing he could have that makes any sense is a 3.
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    RAYwHITE said:
    WTF WENT WRONG?
    RAYwHITE said:
    The villain checks, I bet $40. The villain grimaces and calls 40.
    THIS

    NOBODY ever grimaces on such a dry board like they hate the board & your bet AND then calls when he's not nutted. Nobody.
    Here - I'm not betting unless another K comes.
  • RAYwHITE Posts: 23Subscriber
    While I was writing my notes about the hand I realized what a mistake it was to call his all in. I should have checked the turn to see what he was going to do. Thanks for insights
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,989SubscriberProfessional
    If he's playing 80% of hands, he definitely has 3x in his range (in addition to Kx). I'm fine with your play preflop, on the flop, and on the turn. He has a ton of worse kings to get value from. When he ships the river, though, he's going to have a 3 there almost always, especially after his shenanigans on the flop. Snap fold.
  • tensor0910 Posts: 123Subscriber
    I was gonna comment but hammah hit it right on the head ( no pun intended ). Weak players are generally bad actors. If he's playing 80% of hands and he's doing a bunch of unusual signs of weakness......he's usually strong.
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    RAYwHITE said:
    While I was writing my notes about the hand I realized what a mistake it was to call his all in.
    Funny how taking notes forces you to see the hand from a more "factual" perspective.
    I've done this many-a-times where I lose the hand and think - I bet the guys on the forums would agree with my line... and then as I'm writing it up I see where I went wrong!

    Do this enough times and then you'll be able to do the exact same thing while in the hand - and then, look out... you'll be a force to reckon with!
    Keep posting! it's how we all become better.
    GL
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    I would read Zach elwoods verbal poker tells book. Its full of useful information about how someone might tell you what they have even if they dont want too..

    PI always say playing poker is a language. and you have to understand all the different inflections of what people are trying to tell you.

    I dont mind your betting the flop .. I dont mind betting the turn. but after what villain did on both those streets then ships river.. he just always has better than KJ.

    its like would you ever call OMC after he tanks FOREVER.. then raises?? lol.. same thing..

    ww
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