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"Way ahead, Way behind" concept confused me!

It is a 2/5 home game with lots of whales.
It is button straddle for $15. I have no read on villain. effective stack $1600.
SB (villain) calls $15, BB raises to $40, hero on UTG 3bets to $110 with Q Q , everyone folds, SB calls, BB calls,
Pot ($345), flop: J 7 4 , SB bets $100, BB folds. I think, since it is a way ahead, way behind situation, I just opted to call. In my view, villain called the straddle and then called again my 3bet. he could have PP for set mining.
pot($545), turn 9 . villain bets $175, hero calls.
river($895), river J . villain bets $250. I think to myself, what could I beat here? if he had a J now I'm beat. if he had a set I'm beat. he could not have KK or AA.
On the river bets, I usually prefer to consider my opponent tendencies and frequencies rather than calculating the pot odds. I know I should call $250 to win a $895+$250+$250 pot but:
1- I had never seen him to be so excited donking 3 barrels
2- the only hand I beat is a busted flush draw. but what suited cards he calls the straddle and calls the 3bet again?

So I decided to fold!

your comments are much appreciated as usual.

Comments

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    I think your general approach is fine.. tendencies and frequencies are really important.
    that said so are pot odds..

    players just do weird shit. and if for example you are aware that villain has some river bluffing frequency if you are getting say 2:1 or better I think you have to call with QQ there.. his river sizing is really small. and if for any reason he might do this as a bluff or with say 99s then you just cant fold for that price.

    that's where the intersection is with ranging and frequencies come together..

    now the classic definition of way ahead or way behind isnt exactly this hand because villain can have draws.. but lets say the board was JJ4 on the flop and villain lead. oh and rainbow..

    no draws and now you can see its a clear way ahead way behind. he either has a jack or a pair worse than yours..

    the hardest thing for me to learn in poker was calling when I was probably beat but I was still getting the right price to call. Its a foreign concept for many nubie players because we are wired to fold when we think we are beat. but we are not playing in a perfect game and if its profitable to call you just have to. sometimes you will be amazed at what they show up with.

    ww
  • Lucere29 Posts: 10Subscriber
    edited July 2015
    I don't think you're thinking about his range, or his bet sizing correctly. $100 into that pot on the flop after you 3bet pre screams blocking bet with a draw to me, and that seems to continue with his turn sizing as well. Also, with his range, why would he lead into you small on the flop with a monster hand like a set or even 2 pair when you 3bet pre? The likelihood of you Cbetting, and probably barreling if checked to is really high. This line just seems like bullshit to me. Just last night a villain in a casino took this exact line against me on a very similar board, and I called down all three streets letting him bet for me using the same logic. He ended up having bottom pair on the flop. Maybe he thought I had AK air? Maybe he thought his weak sizing with three barrels would knock me off a one pair hand? Who knows? But especially in a game like this, I just don't see you being behind on the flop or turn at the very least the majority of the time. I'm thinking that most subscribers at the least would suggest a raise-fold on the flop, but I could be wrong.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    Your thinking of WA/WB is correct, but this is not an application of it. The board has a bunch of draws out there, which typically precludes something from being WA/WB. For example, could SB have A T here? Absolutely. In that case, you're more or less flipping. It is usually proper to play check/call, check/call, check/evaluate in WA/WB spots, so theoretically you are doing the right thing. But once you range villain, you see this is not one of those spots.

    As for the hand, I'm raise/folding the flop. Villain is pretty heavily weighted towards TP or FDs, rather than sets/AA/KK. You should be looking to raise to get value from these hands.
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    QQ on J74ss isn't WA/WB. Think about your equity against a flush draw or 65. You're about 2:1 favorite. That's not way ahead.

    WA/WB would be something like K6s on K72r. Most hands either have us crush, liked 77/22/AK-K7/K2/AA (where we are drawing to two pair or runner-runner) or we crush (A2, AQ, 87, JJ). The equites are much closer to us being a 80-90% favorite instead of being 65-70% favorite when ahead.
  • workinghard Posts: 1,568Subscriber
    For me, way ahead/way behind means that if villain doesn't already have me beat, than s/he has at most 4 outs. In this case, the most likely hand villain had was top pair which is 5 outs to beat you and possibly a FD or A 4 . So, you are not way ahead or way behind his range. A much better example of "way ahead/way behind" is if you had QQ and the flop was K22r. A good litmus test for WA/WB situations is to ask yourself "if i bet or raise, can i get called by worse hands?"
  • nariman44nariman44 Posts: 96Subscriber
    Thanks.
    he then showed A K as busted FD.
  • reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,145Subscriber
    edited July 2015
    In general I'd be looking to play a very big pot, maybe even for stacks, on this flop. SB called $15 then called $110 preflop. JJ+ is not in his range. Sure, 77 and 44 are in his range, but that's only 6 combos. He has WAY more combos of Jx and spades in his preflop range that he's leading for $100 on this flop.

    On the flop, I'd raise to $240-$340, depending upon how tight or how hero-y villain is. The 9c on the turn changes nothing, and I would keep betting and continue to get called by Jx and flush draws.

    Like others have said, this is not WA/WB. This is "you are way ahead of his range," and you need to bet and raise for value.
  • workinghard Posts: 1,568Subscriber
    What is the weakest hand you could have had that you would have felt comfortable getting money in with? Btw, villain played his hand in a very standard way that someone plays either a draw or top pair OOP who wants to set his own price to draw out. I wonder if he picked up a live read on you being a weak tight player?
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