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2/5 JJ (Be ) rate my line: butchered flop...turn recovery?

tensor0910 Posts: 123Subscriber
edited July 2015 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Very few reads on villain. seems competent. Uses words like "pot odds" and "blockers". Likes to be active on turn if senses weakness. He has approx 1200.

V raises UTG+2 to 20. 3 calls I call in CO w/ JJ. Were 450 effective.

100 - flop comes 9T3ss. Checks around.

turn 3c checks to me. I bet 45, V raises 125, I tank shove.

Thought process: I think flatting JJ is fine. Flop was a huge error, not sure what I was thinking. I bet 45 to keep in mid PPs, and broadways. When villain raises 125 I feel my hand to him looks like a cheap steal, plus I feel there's a lot of cards that could hit the river that could be bad.

The more I type the more I realize how much of a dunce play this was lol. Critique on any/all streets is appreciated. Thanks in advance.

Comments

  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,989SubscriberProfessional
    What's wrong with your flop play? I'll lead that often headsup, but five ways checking (at least for me) is standard. You likely have the best hand, and with the PFR next to act you're hoping to check to him, let him bet, get a caller or two, then raise and catch the money from the callers in between.

    Your turn bet should be a bit larger, maybe $60. You'll still be able to get value from weaker. I can probably find a fold to his raise on the turn, though. What is he raising with? Your hand looks like a 3. Raising once the board pairs is a super strong play. With players to act, he's not doing this with unimproved overs. This smells like 99/TT and should be a fold.

    What range did you put him on? Air attacking your weak flop bet? If so, why the 3-bet shove?
  • tensor0910 Posts: 123Subscriber
    I'm sorry there was an error in my post. I was in CO.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,989SubscriberProfessional
    Ah, that changes things. Yes, flop is an absolute must-bet when it checks to you. Can get value from a lot of hands, as well as a bit of equity protection against overcards.

    I think the turn might still be a fold to the check/raise, though its closer. There will be a bit more air in his range now that it is a check/raise. I still don't like your shove at all. Are you getting value from something? I think you're getting worse to fold and better to call.
  • workinghard Posts: 1,561Subscriber
    does "9T3ss" mean the flop is single suited or that there are two spades on the flop?

    Pre flop- I don't mind a 3 bet if villain might be open raising with hands like AK-AT, 66-TT, KQ. If he has a tighter opening range, than you can call. What is unforuntate though is that if you do 3-bet, and he calls, the other 2 limpers might come along. However, I think JJ is strong enough where you can 3-bet to $90 and play post flop in position. If 4-bet, you'd have to fold.

    Flop: Must bet. Probably fold to a CR. However, this is a pretty wet board so I find it less likely he would check his made hands
    Turn: Him checking again really decreases the likelyhood he has a draw as he would want to bet that since the flop was checked thru to win the pot now. I think he has totally whiffed or hit the board hard. his CR indicate the later. As played, I think you can call the turn fold to a river bet. I would have bet larger on the flop/turn. Probably $70.
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    3 bet pre
    Bet flop
    Jam turn

    It's a great squeeze spot. If villain is competent, then he's raising wide enough that 3 betting is probably immediately profitable. Plus JJ plays very well IP. Also, we might induce bad calls from players inbetween.

    Regarding the flop, it's a must bet multiway. You can get a ton of value from one pair hands and draws. And there is little reason to be fearful of QQ+ since the pfr checked. Also, betting protects from random overcards that would either hit one of the players or kill our action.

    On the turn, we lose to 3x and a weirdly played value hands that decided to x/r flop instead of barrel. These are pretty unlikely holdings given the situation, so I'd put a bunch of random draws and bluffs in his range. Standard ship.
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    dpbuck said:


    I think the turn might still be a fold to the check/raise, though its closer. There will be a bit more air in his range now that it is a check/raise. I still don't like your shove at all. Are you getting value from something? I think you're getting worse to fold and better to call.
    You get worse to call, like Tx and draws. When we check the flop last to act, it's really hard for us to have a value hand on the turn except 3x. So it's reasonable that he could get called by a one pair hand. Also reasonable that a big combo draw will call off given pot odds.

    And get him to fold worse isn't a bad thing. There's a ton of draws with a lot of equity where him folding out his equity is fine for us. Especially since river will get tricky if we know nothing about his bluffing tendencies. I'd imagine we'd have to fold ugly rivers a lot, like Q, K, A, and spades since they can complete a lot of draws or give him top pair. There's a ton of deep stacked spots where flatting and playing river against someone is best, but being this short stacked given the pot size, it's better to just jam.

  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,989SubscriberProfessional
    I'm not saying check. Definitely bet the turn. But when villain check/raises, what are we beating?
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    dpbuck said:
    I'm not saying check. Definitely bet the turn. But when villain check/raises, what are we beating?
    Bluffs. The board is super drawy. And when we take such a weak line, like checking multiway last to act on the flop, our range is a bit capped (because who checks overpairs on the flop?!?).

    I think you're really taking the bet/fold mentality to the extreme and not hand reading each individual situation. People don't only raise the nuts. People semi bluff. People raise strong hands that we can sometimes beat. We don't have to fold to every raise because Bart says it's a good strategy on a podcast when talking about his individually selected hands.

    You also need to realize that you need to hand read what a fish's range is, not your own. Maybe you're thinking that you would never raise Tx in villain's spot or you would never x/r bluff KQo here. But a fish might.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,989SubscriberProfessional
    Man @DrGambol, we're disagreeing a lot today... :- P

    Villain raises preflop, checks the flop, then check/raises turn. That line is very rarely a bluff/semi-bluff. It is a very nutted line. What do you think he has? A K? That is betting at some point. QJ? 78? I just don't buy it. I'm not saying he NEVER is bluffing, but he has the nuts way too often to continue. Bad players call too much. That's what they do. Raising is the exception for the bad players, at least in the games I play.

    And yes, looking back this should be a squeeze pre. Initially this was posted as JJ in the SB. Hand is different from the CO.
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    dpbuck said:
    Man @DrGambol, we're disagreeing a lot today... :- P

    Villain raises preflop, checks the flop, then check/raises turn. That line is very rarely a bluff/semi-bluff. It is a very nutted line. What do you think he has? A K? That is betting at some point. QJ? 78? I just don't buy it. I'm not saying he NEVER is bluffing, but he has the nuts way too often to continue. Bad players call too much. That's what they do. Raising is the exception for the bad players, at least in the games I play.

    And yes, looking back this should be a squeeze pre. Initially this was posted as JJ in the SB. Hand is different from the CO.
    I don't see see raising preflop, checking a draw heavy flop, and then also checking the turn as being value heavy. To me, hero's line looks weak and the villain's line looks weak. Why would either player check a drawy flop multiway? If you had a set or an overpair, you almost always get action when you bet.

    So when I see someone take a line that is very inconsistent with a value hand against a line that is perceived as weak (like checking back the flop multiway), I'd perceive the villain's line as being very weak. I wouldn't be shocked to see any gut shot with overcards, flush draws, AKo/AQo, and maybe even weak Tx/9x check raise against hero's line.

    I think your issue is that you are perceiving opponents' lines incorrectly. You are seeing betting and raising lines as meaning they are strong rather than looking at the whole picture. If you told me, "this guy x/r the turn, what should I do?" with no other information, I'd say that it sounds like a strong line. If you gave me the information that the guy x/r the turn was the pfr who decided not to Cbet a T93ss flop multiway and also decided not to lead the turn, then I'd find it extremely unlikely that someone checked a strong hand twice.

    What player pool do you play in? Maybe that might have something to do with it, but 1/2-2/5 games that I've seen in Midwest and in Vegas have had a bunch of spewy players that will bluff spots like this. I'd have to have some sort of additional read to fold, like they've been super tight the whole time and just look conservative (like if they are an uptight middle aged white guy who stacks his chips very evenly). If they look like they have any ounce of gambol in their blood, then I'd default to this line being 3x or bluffs with the bluffs being a significant portion of his range.
    by 1dpbuck
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,989SubscriberProfessional
    @DrGambol, just wanted to say I appreciate all the time and thought you put into your responses. I totally see your points in your explanations and responses, and though we may disagree on some lines/ranges, like this one, you have helped my game a lot.
  • Bandgeek Posts: 140Subscriber
    I think your read is right, since you didn't bet flop it looks like you're stealing when it gets checked to you twice. A villain using words like "blockers" may know that's an easy spot to steal a pot, and if he's a competent player I don't see him checking a value hand or strong draw on this board twice.
    If he has an overpair or a set he has to be worried about spades, QJ, 78, etc. I don't see how he shows up here with QQ+.

    As played I say the shove is the right play, but next time bet the flop :)
  • MrFizzbinMrFizzbin Posts: 356Subscriber
    Poker is a game of aggression.
  • Bandgeek Posts: 140Subscriber
    dpbuck said:


    Villain raises preflop, checks the flop, then check/raises turn. That line is very rarely a bluff/semi-bluff. It is a very nutted line. What do you think he has?
    Think this through. Villain raises preflop, flops something "nutty", and checks into 4 players. After it gets checked through, he checks again on the turn so he can try to check raise?

    Not to mention this is a wet board so anything "nutty" is very vulnerable and against 4 players it's very likely that the draws that can beat us are out there.

    I think he has overcards, (kq, ak, aq) or PP (44-88) and thinks hero is running a bluff.

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