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What's your play on the river?

beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
1/3 game
table has been somewhat loose/passive - but overall players are playing their hands post flop
Hero's image has been tight, solid player who can make some moves.

HAND in question:
Several people have limped preflop
Hero in MP overlimps with 2 2 with $350-ish
Villain on button raises to $10 - (his raises have varied from $8-20 often depending on the strength of his hand and/or # of players who have limped) with $350-ish behind

Blinds fold.
One player in EP calls.
Hero calls.
All rest fold.
Pot: $35-ish

Flop: 3 3 2
EP checks.
Hero checks (expecting V to bet his entire range)
V on button bets $15
EP folds
Hero calls

T: K
Hero checks
V bets $20

R: Q
Hero considers betting but sees V count out chips. So he checks.
V bets $45.
Hero raises to $105
V tanks. Asks how much Hero has behind. Hero counts out $185 more.
V tells dealer that he's all in.

Hero?

Reads/hands V has played:
Villain seems to be a tourist/rec player who overvalues AX hands.
In one pot, he min 3-bet a $10 raise to $20 on the button with A 7. On a 776 flop, one player shoved AI for $65. Another player smooth-called. And V just called. On 8 turn, it went check, check. On T river, the first player checked. And V bet big on river.
In another hand, V raised to 15 in SB with ATos. Bet the 8 8 6 flop. Bet the T turn. And bet the T river.
He also raised $10 preflop with 88 in late position. Bet the J-high flop. And then checked it down to the river.

Hero's range for V includes a lot of 3X hands including A3s, K3s and Q3s. Also possible are AK, AQ and KQ. Other hands that are possible but unlikely are AA, KK and QQ.

Based on this - do you ever find a fold here on a 3-bet river?
Tagged:

Comments

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    edited July 2015
    Key question i ask myself is preflop. Would villain ever make a raise that size w KK or QQ. Is no then its a snap call.

    How many K3 s or Q3s in his range?? Is he playing those suited ?

    Btw i think a raise in flop is in order. Not a big one but you should start building a pot. This board has only a flush draw in it and since no one raises a full house on the flop you better disguise your hand

    The all in versus your check raise is pretty strong but if he makes this play w AK or AA i think you have to call.

    Also in consideration is the sizing villain used on flop and turn. He bet less than half pot on flop. Gen indicative of a draw. Then bets even smaller on the turn. These could be draws or block bets

    If i handnt seen him bet this small with a monster he cud also be trying to bluff you off something. Or just thinks you are FOS and missed your draw.

    Anyways i still think its a call. But raise flop next time.
  • tensor0910 Posts: 123Subscriber
    I think i would call as well.

    When you say his raises vary ( 8-20 ) do you mean more money = more strength? or vice versa.

    from your HH V seems somewhat bad, but I would call for 2 reasons:

    If V had QQ-KK, I just dont see him betting so tiny on the flop. Villains usually like to raise bigger w/ these type of hands in fear of an A hitting.

    I just dont see this type of villain being sophisticated enough to bet the turn w/ the nuts ( KK ). Most rec villains would check here.

    I hate to assign him such a narrow range but this looks like AA, AK, or maaybe A3 or KQcc.
  • Arenzano Posts: 1,391Subscriber
    edited July 2015
    Don't like your play through the hand. Too passive. As played I call this most always. Yes it is possible he turned KK or rivered QQ. But I think you're good a lot of the time. A $10 raise over a few limpers pre is not a strong hand like an over pair.
  • pandabird Posts: 48Subscriber
    If villain has a 3 on the flop or say QQ-AA, do you think he would size his bet a little larger afraid of the draws? Or is his bet sizing post flop usually on the smaller side? Seems to me he'd want to bet a little larger on the turn too if his hand wasn't nutted (he could have turned a full house with K3 or KK), so I'd kind of discount a non-full 3 on the turn, I think he might size his bet larger?

    I don't think he'd 3 bet all in with AA, AK, or KQ on the river, unless this guy is a total idiot. Your hand looks like at least trips when you check raise the river. I think he actually might be full here a lot of the time, but if you think he can continue his small bet sizing with a non-full 3 on the turn, then it becomes more of a call since he could have many combos of 3x suited in his range. If you think this guy would never raise that small pre with KK or QQ, then it's definitely a call.

    Interesting hand, curious to see what you did and what he had.

  • Floyd Posts: 160Subscriber
    Your hand definitely looks like a missed FD. I can't find a fold for that reason alone. Also agree with others with check raising flop. Have to start building the pot. If he does a have a 3 he might just get it in OTF.
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    thanks for input, y'all
    normally, I would lead out with my set - but since I had the board so crushed, I didn't want to scare V away.based on how table was playing - taking the lead on the flop would have turned my hand face up and folded out all of V's range that wasn't nutted (WA/WB)

    on the flop, I though V could have any fd, any pp and any 3x
    on the turn, he would only continue with fds, 3x, Kx and AA
    on the river - I thought he either hand 3x, AK, KQ or AA... naturally, all hands that I beat
    we all know that a 3-bet river is a very nutted hand, but really couldn't think of a hand that matched V's tiny bet-sizing. BTW - playing with V for nearly 2-hours, this was the first time he ever went All In...

    I called
    V turns over KK

    weird hand.
    I guess he's got to be full to shove on river as @pandabird suggested. and on this board deuces full is the worst FH possible... so maybe raise/fold is the best line?
  • Floyd Posts: 160Subscriber
    He raised $10 pre over three limpers ONTB with Kings?! Well I'll be dammed!
  • FreeLunch Posts: 1,308Pro
    Call. The result does not matter.
    beauregard said:
    thanks for input, y'all
    normally, I would lead out with my set - but since I had the board so crushed, I didn't want to scare V away.
    That quote is bad logic. If the vil has overpairs, high cards or made hands he is going to call a donk from you no matter what and may even raise. When he has non of those things he is less likely to continue no matter what happens. You want to make the pot as big as possible when people are willing to make big mistakes, not find a way to let them make some smaller mistakes .

  • FreeLunch Posts: 1,308Pro
    You know what beauregard, thinking about this more I can see a fold against a reg that knows you well, but not against the stipulated tourist/rec player. I think I mentioned in another post that I have a highly skilled friend that takes low variance lines and we argue a lot but he is just never going to change. I think he would fold a lot here against many regs in the game, and certainly against me, and he would be right.

    The reason he would be right is that he knows that we know he is a nit. If I ever bet a flop like this with an overpair I and he calls my warning radar is going off. Even if he is getting stubborn with a worse overpair I still dont want to give him a lot of action. As played, if I was the villain I would never have anything less than a higher set against my friend. There are many other nits in the game who would not fold to me here and I would take his stack, but my friend is actually a good nit and would fold to any decent player who knew his style.

    My point is, that people who take low variance lines trap at a higher frequency. Observant players know that and adjust by playing smaller post. I think a key skill in taking lower variance lines is being hyper aware of how other players view and adjust to your style.
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    X/r the flop. Villain's most likely combos for betting flop are overpairs, draws, and Cbet bluffs.

    Against overpairs, raising gets more value before a scare card comes. For instance, if he bets 88 on the flop, then any card 9 or higher might slow him down. And any flush card may scare him regardless of how big his overpair is. Raising also increases our chances of stacking him for obvious reasons. He won't have to call giant x/r on the river and will instead be calling down versus your triple barrel. Against a guy described like you did, making sure you bloat the pot and get his entire stack is very important and should be your top priority when planning out what line to take.

    Against draws, they will call if we x/r anyway. So we get more value. It's even better if they hit the turn.

    Against Cbet bluffs, it still gets value by checking and letting him bluff once. X/r kinda sucks if he's likely to barrel a lot of turns and rivers as a bluff, but the fact that you'll get lots of value from overpairs should make up for that.

    Additionally, you having the board locked up shouldn't be a consideration on this flop. Really, your 22 blockers are blocking A2s, but who cares. It would be different if you have KK on K72r where there are less combos of a top pair (cause people will play KJ for multiple bets but less with A2) and there aren't many overpairs.
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    As played on river when he bets $45 and we have $290, I'd rather jam than raise small. All the draws missed. We can't really rep much when we flat twice and jam river. Our line looks super bluffy and Kx may call down. Plus, jamming isn't really that big of an overbet. Pot on the river is $105 and he bet $45. So pot is $195 when our $45 is added and he will have to call another $245 on top. So very slight overbet.
    by 1Clock
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