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Help settle a friendly debate.

A friend and I were playing 1/2.

He is in the cutoff with QQ.

I fold utg.

Utg+1 raises to 8. (Tight ish older guy)

Fold to friend in cutoff (qq) 3 bets to 30 (winning image on the laggerer side.)

BB calls. ( guy on monkey tilt big fish)

Flop comes QJ10 :r:

Effective stacks are 300

BB checks UTG+1 makes it 50. My friend jams 280.



I told him latter I thought going all in a really bad play. I said AQ finds a fold there more often than not. AK has you crushed. 89 has you crushed. K9 has you crushed. JJ might call you but a better player might find a fold there.

He disagrees.. he says that AQ can call 230 more. I said not from a tight ish older guy who has shown to be fairly competent. Not to mention a tilt monkey left to act behind who is likely to bluff off his stack.

I told him I was likely calling and reevaluating the turn. Is that to passive when AK is a very likely hand?

Comments

  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    we seem to have these kinds of debates here often:

    as a player who prefers a low variance approach - I would just flat.
    typically - utg raisers who call a 3-bet have nutty hands.
    while UTG may just have AA or KK - which we currently beat - I'd expect him to bet AK as well. (in 3-bet pots - I wouldn't expect 89 or K9 to be show up here... although maybe by that monkey-tilt guy)

    so we beat 4 combos of AA, KK, JJ and TT. But lose to 16 combos of AK and maybe suited combos of 89.

    The thing is: if we shove - we look like we have AK. So we may only getting called by AK.
    So by shoving - we most likely are folding out ALL hands that we beat and only go up against that AK hand that crushes us 65/45.

    On occasion, KK may call with 10 outs - and by shoving, we may end paying him off when a 4-card straight comes - which we would have folded had we just called.

    as a poker player - and by that, I mean, a guy who prefers to play my hand and not shove hoping I'm good or my hand will hold up - I'd much prefer flatting. If the turn is a blank - I highly doubt UTG is betting with anything less than the nuts, to which we can fold and live to stack him in another hand. And here we can bet for value.

    But I don't think this is the only approach, nor the "correct" approach. It's probably more of a style thing....
  • workinghard Posts: 1,561Subscriber
    The main problem with jamming isn't that he migjt be up against a straight since to be honest the money is going in. The problem is that worse hands might find a fold. If villain had KQ, AQ, or 2 pair, he might fold. He's not folding an under set. I'd make a raise to 120. I think most top pair plus hands will call since there will be straight draws. If villain raises, call or shove if not all in.
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    We aren't crushed against a straight. We are behind, but nowhere near crushed.

    And you need to think about it like this. A tight old guy just raised pre, & donk bet into you. What hands are in his range? Are those hands folding to a jam? KQ isn't folding with oesd+top pair. Two pair isn't folding. Lower sets aren't folding. AQ is maybe a fold, but some guys will still call off. KK isn't folding. AA isn't folding. 99 might fold but some guys still call off.

    I just find it really difficult to find hands that will fold. After reading some responses here, I think everyone is giving this guy way too much credit. There's no way someone folds KK or TT. We make all our money off of donks that stack off AQ here. I think everyone is being way to pessimistic and people will stack off super light here given that he almost always has 2 pair plus or top pair/overpair with either a gutter or oesd. Old tight guys don't fold these hands because of their absolute value.
    beauregard said:


    so we beat 4 combos of AA, KK, JJ and TT. But lose to 16 combos of AK and maybe suited combos of 89.

    6 combos of AA. 6 combos of KK. 3 combos of JJ. 3 combos of TT. So 18 combos of those hands we beat that you listed.
  • WilburTrey Posts: 44Subscriber
    edited July 2015
    It was the tight old guy who raised on the flop. And I think he would fold AA, 99, in that spot I'm leaning toward he would fold a KK in the 3 hours we have played he hasn't shown down, none nut hands yet. I didn't say he should fold. But I am against a shove as a lot of hands you can beat find folds. While hands that have you beat are still likely to call.

    Much like others I think you should call the flop and re-evaluate the turn. Why get into a situation with your stack that likey doesn't favor you in the long run?
  • FreeLunch Posts: 1,308Pro
    edited July 2015
    I love the beauregard vs DrGambol threads. I am more often in the high variance DrGambol camp but its not a major mistake to take lower variance lines here. I dont think the overbet by your friend is as good as a smaller with a plan that is villain dependent( betfold v betcall). If the read is right that you are against someone who will fold AA or 99 here then that same player is never bluffing if bet into so I would go betfold or possibly check behind.
  • workinghard Posts: 1,561Subscriber
    People seem very happy to believe that the old man in this hand would open raise KK and then just call a 3-bet pre. I find that very unlikely. If he did play KK that way pre, he played it to make sure an Ace didn't flop at which point he's not eagerly folding on the flop.
  • Arenzano Posts: 1,391Subscriber
    The money should go in. We have 35% equity on the flop versus AK, but will only have 22% on the turn. We have awkward stacks of around 100bb +/-. If stacks were deeper we could play differently, but I think we'd still want to start building a pot.

    This villain is rarely folding to the flop shove, and if he has AA JJ TT he is drawing pretty slim with either one or two outs. If he has KK he has 10.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    FreeLunch said:
    I love the beauregard vs DrGambol threads. I am more often in the high variance DrGambol camp but its not a major mistake to take lower variance lines here. I dont think the overbet by your friend is as good as a smaller with a plan that is villain dependent( betfold v betcall). If the read is right that you are against someone who will fold AA or 99 here then that same player is never bluffing if bet into so I would go betfold or possibly check behind.
    what am I swiss cheese??? lol.. :wink:

    I think the ship is awful.. you MIGHT get 98 to fold but thats just about the worst hand that is folding .. there are only 6 combos of sets but you might also get all two pair combos to fold JT - 12 QT 4 pair plus straight draws are probably going to fold too. KJ KT etc.. and of course AQ is probably going to fold but there are only 4 combos of that anyways.

    So if you are only getting maybe 89 suited to fold and all better straights call and no two pair combos call its a really bad ship.

    Especially when you take into consideration that you will very likely be able to get stacks in by river if all hero does is min raise. if you raise from 50 to 100 you only have 200 left. easy to get it in by the river..

    Beau does take a lower variance approach but when you just flat this on the flop and then raise the turn you are also giving a tighter player an excuse to fold..

    One hand I am proud of the way I played it was incorporating this min click to get a ton of value later.. Stacks are 1000..

    I have 55 on an Ace high wet board. pfr bets say 50.. I make it 115.. player in blinds overcalls the raise.. he probably has an ace.. turn T..he checks I bet 150.. he calls.. river blank.. he checks I bet $275.. he tanks says he has top two pair and eventually calls..

    now I have been experimenting when I actually get a value hand betting a little less and raising a little less to get these calls. I think with my tight image and being a white girl I have been betting too big and getting too many folds with value hands. So I strung this guy along with these small bets but they add up. I ended up getting almost $600 from him..

    when stacks are even shorter in a 1/3 game that min raise for value on the flop is just so important..

    ww
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    edited July 2015
    DrGambol said:
    And you need to think about it like this. A tight old guy just raised pre, & donk bet into you. What hands are in his range? Are those hands folding to a jam? KQ isn't folding with oesd+top pair. Two pair isn't folding. Lower sets aren't folding. AQ is maybe a fold, but some guys will still call off. KK isn't folding. AA isn't folding. 99 might fold but some guys still call off.
    Tight old guy raises to 8 AND calls a 3-bet of 30 from a winning player from oop with:
    KQ? QJ? JT? QT?
    Really?

    Tight old guy bets a set of TT and gets shoved on - and you think he's calling off his whole stack when it looks like hero has AK?
    Really?

    maybe we play in different games.
    or maybe I've got a different definition of "tight old guy."

    but me thinks this is a WA/WB scenario.
    and since we've got position, I'm in the Not Shove camp.
    especially since we're so shallow - we can easily get it all in by river if we're ahead.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    Beau

    This isnt a classic WA/WB because the board has draws on it. I have seen older guys bets draws.. just cuz he older doesnt mean he wont lead a pair and a draw.

    but I Dont think a tight player regardless of age is ever calling the all in with say KT.. and we need to get value from those hands..

    ww
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    Since when do people fold overpairs? Since when do people fold sets? Since when do people fold two pair?

    I think the key to this question is who is this old tight guy. I see old tight guy as a guy who set mines, can't fold an overpair, plays big pairs fast. I mean, if this person is a nit and only plays the nuts, then shoving sucks. No doubt. But I don't see many old tight guys folding KK here.

    I think everyone is answering correctly in this thread based on what their definition of tight old guy is. I view that read as being pretty limp/cally pre, raises tight range, stacks off overpairs, set mines, doesn't have much of a bluffing range. If you view tight old guy as someone who only plays the nuts postflop, then go ahead and flat and re-evaluate each street.

  • WilburTrey Posts: 44Subscriber
    My thought is. With a spew tard left to act behind. (Tilt monkey). Why not just call and see what he does. He could easily shove with worse and if tight old guy calls I personally can fold and save my stack. Also why do we want to get our stack in with 35% equity. Don't you think we could find a much better spot to get our stack in with?

    Personally I just think I can call and see what happens behind/on the turn and have a bit more info and make a better shove/call/fold.
  • FreeLunch Posts: 1,308Pro
    DrGambol said:
    Since when do people fold overpairs? Since when do people fold sets? Since when do people fold two pair?
    Believe it or not they do it all the time here in Florida and its not just the old men. There are guys that buy in for 20big, get 15 in then fold an overpair. Horrible but true. Against a random I agree with you tho in this case. But instead of shoving (and I agree with the swiss cheese on this :wink: ) those same players will call more often to a smaller bet then a shove so I would rather bet call or bet fold depending on who we are up against as I think there is reasonable percentage of players who will fold to an overbet.
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,097Subscriber
    Some ridicilous MUBS going on here :???:
    How often do you think UTG+1 tighish old guy has AK here?
    He flopped stone cold NUTS vs 3better on rainbow board and he donks into him? Seriously?

    Now, how can he possibly have 89? Ever?
    (K9 is so ridiculous, not even worth talking about)
    And if he does then he has every single 2p combo on that board plus most pair+OESD, which is like a gazillion combos.

    No, he most likely has a big piece of this board and he's protecting vs str8 coming.
    Maybe he flopped a set, maybe 2p, maybe pair + SD(depends on how lose he is opening UTG+1 and calling 3bets), possibly KK or AA if he's trying to be "tricky"

    So flat calling is the worst option.
    Shipping is the 2nd worst option, not because of "high variance" - LMAO - but because we don't want to lose the guy we have CRUSHED.
    The best play IMO is to click it to 100-125.

    Now, as far as the fish in BB, I think you over-estimate his bluffing frequency in 3b pot vs 2 people.
    He prob has nothing, so we shouldn't worry about him at all.


  • WilburTrey Posts: 44Subscriber
    In the end bb called friends ship as did UTG+1. BB had JJ UTG had AK. The board ran out AK so all 3 split the pot.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    edited July 2015
    WilburTrey said:
    In the end bb called friends ship as did UTG+1. BB had JJ UTG had AK. The board ran out AK so all 3 split the pot.
    lol.. Back in the day.. when I was just learning NL I used to play in these tiny cap games around LA. One super fish called allin threebet against 3 tighter players. This game had a 100 cap and I think the blinds were 1/2... all the players I believe had around 300 or something.. I dont remember the action exactly but .....

    Flop comes A K Q..

    all three tight players flopped sets.. yep that AA KK and QQs.. naturally the fish had JT and scoops the pot.. to this day I have never seen this happen .. mainly Im sure because of the cap nature of the game

    Wilbur

    What did your "friend" think of his ship after he saw the hands?? Was he still so sure he made the right play??? I find that players who make those plays will not see the fault in them otherwise they wouldnt make them...

    ww
  • WilburTrey Posts: 44Subscriber
    No he still thinks it was correct. Just makes me willing to call his all ins a bit lighter
  • laphonso Posts: 69Subscriber
    im not calling to reevaluate the turn- i have top set, if i lose so be it, i am calling because this guy probably has a hand and his 50 bet sets up playing for stacks nicely on the turn if he bets again, which he prob will, if he cks turn i can bet and easily get stacks in... i dont flop top set here and worry about being beat- it's ok to lose sometimes! sometimes we just get coolered- it's why we have a bankroll--- calling to re-evaluate seems really bad in general and particularly here- we should call because we have a plan on how to play certain run outs, certain bet sizes, certain villian tendencies etc---- "i am calling here because i am either shoving over any turn bet he makes or betting 100 if he checks to me" is a much better way of thinking than - "he might have a straight, omg, im gonna call and see what he does and evaluate"- calling with a plan wins $
  • WilburTrey Posts: 44Subscriber
    Just seems to me that AK is a very viable hand for 1 of the other 2 in a 3 bet pot. You can save some of your stack in certain situations if you don't jam the flop. At less than 100 BBS left you. Not to mention get value from worse which you push out with a jam. Also this was my old roommate. The two of us argue about hands alot.
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