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Bottom set, river play vs ABC villains

2/5 FR

Hero: my image is losing, just had to bet fold the nut flush OTR when board paired when I took kind of an FPS line against v1, I haven't played many hands but the hands I did had to bet fold all of them, so I'm down about $500.
Stack $995

V1: rec player, calls too much pre tends to fold by the turn, plays draws and sets very very passive, he just called me down with mid/set until board paired when I turned nut flush and then shoved, his opens have been 3! Twice in an orbit he called both times and folded flop, seems to me like he's scared money, doesn't raise much but when he does if he misses he just check folds, will bet his over pairs but still play them cautiously.
Stack $1200

V2: sat down at the table with $200, flopped TPGK went with it and rivered 2p, flopped bottom set raised flop pretty big on a 932ssx board and doubled up again when KK shoved on him and his set held, raised a few hands in between and bet pot as the PFR on high card boards and got folds, so my profile of him is straight ahead ABC post doesn't slow play, has raised 4 times to $30( seems his standard) so my estimate is AQ+ 99+ he'd over limp with smaller pairs and SC's or limp/call a raise with them to see a cheap flop.
Stack $940

I come back from a break and post in CO with 33, 1 limp ahead of me, I check my option, v2 over limps OTB, v1 raises to $25 in BB limper calls I call v2 calls

Pot $100
Flop
Q73hhh
Checks to me, I bet $80 v2 calls v1calls,limper folds

Pot $340
Turn Jx
V1 checks, I bet $195, v2 calls, v1 calls

Pot $925
River 2x

V1 checks

So I get to this river vs these 2 players, v1 seems like he has AhQx KxKh AhAx AhKc AxKh and that's about it, I expect a raise somewhere in the hand from v2 with a flush and I expect a shove from any flopped set as he seems like the kind that would shove and hope for the board to pair, so I don't think he has much but maybe a range of pair+ draw or somewhere along the line as v1 maybe top two with a hh in it.
pot is really bloated and I have around $670ish left.
What's my river play

Comments

  • Letmewin1 Posts: 1,238Member
    Edit;
    after thinking about more of v2 range, I guess he could have some S1G and SC's for flopped small flushes that he's not comfy raising with, so questions

    1) Can I profitably shove here to fold him any non nut/2nut flushes or maybe even mid/set?

    This option to "merge" looks and sound optimistic...

    2) should I just take a "standard" B/F line, $250ish since I know I'll rarely get raised by anything worse and probably just get called by mid flushes?
    Don't know if I like this one, maybe just check fold( as a 3rd option)?
  • FuzzyDunlop Posts: 139Subscriber
    You are never getting a better hand to fold so option 1 is out.

    It simply comes down to whether you think you've got the best hand here more than 50% of the time in deciding whether to value bet the river or not. And I do think it's likely you have the best hand so you want to size your bet to get called by two pair or an overpair or maybe even AQ. I think somewhere between $275 and $350 is the sweet spot and you can easily fold to a raise as there is no way you'll be raised by worse.
  • chris_9090chris_9090 Posts: 101Subscriber
    edited July 2015
    interesting spot , i think we can safely assume that most ppl will raise their flushes by the turn ( except maybe the nut flush) or raise 77 otf (yeah even the passive ones ).. If there is no way that that any of them bluffs with a missed draw on the river but they can call with worse (QJ ,QXh) i think bet/folding around 300sh is the best option here...
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