$2/5 at the WSOP
Back story, I've been at the table for about 30 minutes, I noticed that the lady fish on my left opens wide but likes to call down post with any pair, any backdoor draw, etc. The tourney donk directly to her left is your typical loose passive tourney fish, tends to not believe people and call people down. Effective stacks in the hand are about $800.
I get two black 5's utg +2 and limp, hoping to call a raise from the lady and win a big pot by taking her to value town for 3 streets after catching. The lady opens to 15, tourney donk calls, bb calls, I call.
Flop: 5h 3s 2d (Pot: $60)
BB checks, I lead for $40 into the lady, who surprisingly folds. Tourney donk calls and the bb calls.
Turn: 8s (Pot: $180)
BB checks, I blast $150, tourney donk snap calls, and the bb quickly calls...I'm like wtf
River: 7d (Pot: $630)
BB checks (looks like she missed everything and is about to give up), I bet $200, villain in the hand insta shoves for $500. BB folds, back to me. Around $300 to call $1330.
We are getting crazy pot odds but this is never a bluff, so what value hands do we beat here?
I gave the villain the following value range:
A4, 46 (he would probably feel these hands are big enough to slowplay 3 streets)
69 (he's bad enough to piece off with this on the flop and turns a double gutter)
33, 22 (unlikely for him to slowplay this to the river and then shove over the top of someone betting into him for 3 streets)
53, 32 (not sure if he even plays these hands, and we block a fair amount of them, plus he would never slow play these for 3 streets cuz he wouldn't want the "bad beat")
77, 88 (he's bad enough to peel the flop with these and might have backed into a higher set)
So since I can't see him slowplaying the lower sets and flopped two pairs like this, even though we are getting crazy pot odds, I just didn't think I could beat anything.
I ended up tank folding and he didn't show.
I think the river is where I messed up. My friend who was sweating me later told me he would probably just open jam since we can definitely get called by worse.
David T said he would probably bet $215 then hold his nose and pay it off.
Bart said he would probably bet $300 and call due to the pot odds.
I think I might have chosen the one river sizing that actually allowed me to find this gross fold.