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$5/$10 Bluffcatching Facing Narrow Value Range VS Unknown

Villain sat 10 mins before then hand , never seen him before ,he is in his 50s.He sat with 2.5k$
Hero has been pretty active these last 10 minutes , mid 20s ,probably perceived loose-aggro.I cover villain.
[Pre-Flop] Folds to Hero (CO) who opens to 35$ with 3 4 . Villain (Btn) 3bets quickly to 115$ . Everyone else folds.I call.
[Flop] K 3 Q . I check . Villain Checks back
[Turn] 4 . I lead 140$ , Villain doesnt think much ,makes it 385$
[River] Q ... I check ... Villain quickly grabs and bets 700sh(705-720) without even counting..........

Villains value range is obviously 3 combos of KK and 1 of QQ ...He can have lot of semibluffs on the turn but do you expect an unknown to continue often in a blank river after we call turn raise ?
Interesting spot , do you think if river is a K:s: we are better to call because now he has 1 combo of KK which is more likely to trap otf rather than QQ (its more likely that he slowplays top set than medium set )

P.S Please no preflop police answers, i know my call is marginal OOP vs unknown although we are deep enough... I am interested in postflop play..thanks

Comments

  • FreeLunch Posts: 1,308Pro
    His range seems a lot wider than KK QQ. There are lots of players who would play AK this way - think you are on a flush draw when you call then snap bet the Q because they have you on a flush draw and just plain are not thinking at all. In generally I expect really strong hands to think longer and not snap act. If we are playing hands like this pre we have to accept there are going to be some really high variance situations like this but Im not sure playing it trappy is the way to go. I would generality have raised the turn.
  • chris_9090chris_9090 Posts: 101Subscriber
    [quote="FreeLunch;54153". I would generally have raised the turn.[/quote]
    i think 3betting turn is a massive overplay . We are not folding better , i dont think an unknown would play AK this way , and if he did , we apply max pressure to his 1pair that he might fold ott so we probably dont get called by worse,we fold his bluffs and finally , we still have a draw vs his nut range
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    edited July 2015
    i agree with FL - I think his range is way wider.
    I can see AA, AK, AQ, KQ do this as well as KK & QQ. (some 5/10 players might even 3-bet with JJ and QJ)

    most 5/10 players would expect a bet on the flop if you had the K or Q.
    I don't think V puts you on 2-pair on the turn.
    His turn bet really isn't that revealing. I see a lot of guys do this with hopes of having fold equity but in reality, being on a draw. But this river bet is rarely a bluff.

    But on the river, your hand is counterfeit with almost anything he can have.
    You beat A J, A J, A T & A T. You also beat a ton of combos of JT.

    based on betting size, it looks like it's for value. I'd expect a bluff to be larger or AI.
    you've shown strength - so he's got to figure you've got at least a K.
    his monkey-betting style (quickly) feels like he's nutted.
    I think this is a fold.

    EDIT:
    actually, the more I think about this, the more AA makes the most sense.
    He 3-bet but was scared of KK and QQ - which is why he checked the flop. No poker player would check KK or QQ on a flushing board - so when you checked, he felt his AA was good.
    He then made a plan to bet/bet or raise/bet on the turn/river - assuming that you had AK at best (of course he was wrong). On the river, he's betting a bunch of chips to show strength - hoping you don't have a Q or FH. But as I mentioned earlier - you got counterfeited. I don't see FD making this move nor SD from a guy in his 50's that doesn't seem to be very sophisticated (from my interpretation of your hand.)
  • FuzzyDunlop Posts: 139Subscriber
    Having played with the villain for only 10 minutes with no reads on him other than his age and how much he sat down with there is no way calling the river can be +ev long term.
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