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1-2 paired flop, rivered nut flush facing CRAI on river

pexw Posts: 18Subscriber
Last night around 11pm at a 1-2 club game in NYC. This is one of the more interesting hands I've been involved in and I haven't been able to figure out if I made the right decision on the river.

Apologies for any errors as I'm posting from mobile.

V is late 20s white guy, playing very tight. Not seeing a lot of flops. When I sat down 3 hours ago he was about $800 deep but has lost a few big pots. He won one and is back up to around 400. I think he has been overvaluing his top pair type hands. Might be a little tilted.

Hero mid 20s guy with a winning, aggressive image. V may be ranging me on a lot of air as I have been barreling quite a lot. Got called by ace high earlier when I missed my flush with Q3dd which I opened from LP, flopped Jd8d3s and fired three barrels, my pair of 3s was good. About $440.

The hand
UTG straddles 5
3 callers incl V from UTG+1
Hero in HJ with Ac4x makes a very loose call. Reasoning was CO and BTN looked like they were folding and I think I can take down this pot a healthy amount of the time post flop against these players.
Blinds fold straddler x

Flop ($28) JcJs4c
X to hero who bets $25
I think I take it down here a lot of the time, and a second barrel on the turn will fold out a lot of mid pp's and possibly hands like J9 and JT.
V calls everyone else folds

Turn ($78)
8c
V X
Hero bets $50, thinking a J would have x/r on the flop
V calls
What is he x/c with here that he would have limped in pre with? Possible that he limped QQ+, or he has JTs or a medium op and is putting me on air?

River ($178) is a very interesting card
Kc
Puts a 4 flush on the board and I have the nut flush
V X again
Hero bets $75 to get called by something like TT with the Tc or JTo/JQo with the Tc or Qc
V doesn't think long and ships it for $300 total. Hero covers by about $40.

I play in this 1-2 game pretty frequently and don't know if I've ever seen a CRAI on the river in this kind of situation so I didn't know what to make of it. If he nutted up wouldn't he bet the river to get called by a club since most small clubs or turned flushes are checking back?

What range should we put V on here? Is he polarized to nuts (KJ, KK, 88) or air? Does he ever have a hand like AJo? Can I profitably call getting about 2:1?

Interested in feedback on all streets.

Comments

  • Bandgeek Posts: 140Subscriber
    I'm not sure I follow your thinking. On flop you think you can barrel JT or J9 off on the turn, but on the turn you bet because anyone with a J would have check raised?

    He might be shipping with just a J or JQ, JT with the Q or T of clubs.
    Good chance he shows up with KJ or J8 and figured based on your prior play that you'd do all the betting for him.

    I would fold preflop. After he calls on flop, you're way ahead/way behind, most likely way behind, and the 8 on the turn didn't change anything so it's not a really good barrel card IMO.


  • tensor0910 Posts: 123Subscriber

    we have the Ac so its unlikely V is shoving w/ a worse flush, and I dont think V is capable of doing this with QcK, or TJc, and he's not doing this w/ any turned flushes.( 8T, T9, 89 ). He most likely would either c/c or c/f. And I agree w/ you on the fact that any bare J we wouldve heard from him by now.

    But you say this guy is tight, and there's only 2 combos of J8s, 3 combos of 8s, 1 combo of JJ. Do you think this guy has a river bluffing range @ all? Tight players dont usually shove w/ air. w/o any specific villain reads I think this is a fold.
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    i like your betting line... for value... on flop - but once V calls I'd probably check and re-evaluate.

    I agree with bandgeek: if you're always barreling, V never needs to check/raise you on flop or turn. he can check/call for value!

    in straddled pots - guys from UTG+1 often play tricky hoping someone will raise and then they can pounce... so KK is definitely in his range.
    hands that beat you are 44, J8, 88, KJ and J4. & poorly played, trappy KK

    since you think V is tilted - I could see him doing this with Q J×- but think he would probably open ship on river with this. instead of check/shoving.

    river raises are typically nutted hands - esp. from a tight, white guy oop.

    since your river bet is small - I don't think V thinks you're bluffing... but maybe he thinks you're weak. I think most Js would call. As well as most smaller flushes. there is that spaz factor where V may be fed up with getting pounded and he jams as a bluff... but that seems to be a very small percentage of his play.

    I don't see TAG limp/callers jamming river without a value hand (kagey's theorem) so I think you're up against a FH. I'd fold.
  • AJD804AJD804 Posts: 184Subscriber
    You fired three barrels earlier with a pair of threes and the villian I assume saw that and remembered it, so I think after watching you fire on the flop and turn, he assumed you were going to fire on any river and was waiting to pull this move. Also, I think I can safely say that I have never seen a check raise all in bluff on the river in my life, so Im guessing he has a good hand. Because of that and the fact that there are 4 clubs on board, Im guessing this is a boat almost everytime. I guess it could be AJ or maybe QJ rarely but in this instance its usually a boat and bet/fold is the play here.
  • pexw Posts: 18Subscriber
    edited July 2015
    Bandgeek said:
    I'm not sure I follow your thinking. On flop you think you can barrel JT or J9 off on the turn, but on the turn you bet because anyone with a J would have check raised?
    Basically I was thinking if this guy is checking a hand like JT or J9 he is either checking to check/raise, or check/call then lead out on the turn. How often is he check/calling two streets with a weak J facing aggression OOP? So when he checks the turn to me I feel pretty good about him not having a J, since I don't think he's doing this with weak J's, and I don't think he's limping AJo or KJo from up front in a straddled pot. But maybe my thinking was wrong.
    Bandgeek said:

    Good chance he shows up with KJ or J8 and figured based on your prior play that you'd do all the betting for him.
    I don't think J8 is ever in this guy's range from UTG+1 in a straddled pot.
    AJD804 said:
    Also, I think I can safely say that I have never seen a check raise all in bluff on the river in my life, so Im guessing he has a good hand.
    Same here. I tanked on this for about 4-5 minutes. I couldn't figure out why he didn't bet for value if he had a monster. He has to know I'm not going to fire a 3rd barrel with air or a weak hand on this board. Yes I've been barreling a lot but my image is winning, not maniacal, I think he has to see me as a competent thinking player. On the other hand maybe I'm giving him too much credit.
  • AJD804AJD804 Posts: 184Subscriber
    I think what you are missing is that once you showed that pair of 3s in the previous hand, a lot of players will, rightly or wrongly, will not see you the way you think. They will be more likely to put you into the maniacal camp because in their minds' you will always fire that third bullet. I can almost guarantee that if you just checked the river and he showed a monster/nuts he would say "I thought for sure you were going to bet" Or something to that effect
  • pexw Posts: 18Subscriber
    AJD804 said:
    I think what you are missing is that once you showed that pair of 3s in the previous hand, a lot of players will, rightly or wrongly, will not see you the way you think. They will be more likely to put you into the maniacal camp because in their minds' you will always fire that third bullet. I can almost guarantee that if you just checked the river and he showed a monster/nuts he would say "I thought for sure you were going to bet" Or something to that effect
    By the same logic, couldn't he be doing this with a hand as weak as JXo? If he thinks my triple barreling range is always as wide as bottom pair, does my action actually depolarize his range in this situation?

    Another thing I didn't mention was that when the river card came out I quickly checked my cards to make sure I was holding the Ac. Is it possible that this altered his action?
  • MrFizzbinMrFizzbin Posts: 356Subscriber
    edited July 2015
    First of all pot size is off by 5, you either have 4 in w. Blinds folding or 5 in. This is important because 1 more player in hand makes it more likely your 4 is beat.

    He check calls 2 times and isn't concerned about a 4 flush shoves river, 3 hands hands bluff or full house most likely 88 or KJ, a weak flush that had straight possibilities from turn like 9 10
  • pexw Posts: 18Subscriber
    MrFizzbin said:
    First of all pot size is off by 5, you either have 4 in w. Blinds folding or 5 in. This is important because 1 more player in hand makes it more likely your 4 is beat.
    Pot was $28 going to the flop. UTG straddled 5, 3 players called, plus myself, so it was 5 players to the flop.
  • pexw Posts: 18Subscriber
    edited July 2015
    I agree with most of the feedback in this thread, and I did bet the river to bet/fold. I realize I probably butchered this hand.

    When he raised I nearly snap-folded but then I paused and thought about it, ended up tanking for a few minutes. The line he took was just too weird and I started to think this guy is not good enough (or bad enough) of a player to take this line with the nuts. I'm only losing to 88, KK, and KJs, with maybe some KJo in his range. I started thinking he has a lot more JX in his range.

    My reasoning was he could easily be putting me on air or bottom to middle pair, so his bluff frequency could be up to 5% and river jam frequency with trips goes up a lot to like 30%, so getting 2:1 from the pot I should be calling. Additionally, after tanking for a few minutes I looked up at him and he had a kind of sad look on his face - not hollywood sad but like he was trying to stay composed.

    So I ended up calling and he said "Good call" and he mucked and left. I didn't get a chance to ask what he had. Maybe he was just spazzing out with AA or QQ?
  • MrFizzbinMrFizzbin Posts: 356Subscriber
    :-/ wow...
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