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Ship turn with the nuts if opponent never folding or wait for safe river in big pot

AlexB Posts: 160Subscriber
Deep 5/10 game at the Wynn in Vegas. Rec player with $3500 stack raises to $60 I'm next to act with AQo. This rec player doesn't raise big with ak type hands so his range is TT+. Bb also calls and we're 3way.
Flop: KJ7 rainbow
Bb checks, villain checks, I bet $180, bb mucks, villain calls. I had a live tell that he wasn't very pained when he called, almost like a happy call. If he had QQ or TT he would probably fold, so immediately I smelled something fishy.
Turn: T completing rainbow. Boom. Villain checks again and now I fire $480, villain immediately xr to $1200.

So we have 2 options: ship it here knowing this villain is never folding his top or middle set, or wait till the river to make sure board doesn't pair. It's a pretty big pot for me, $7000, so I was deliberating and decided to ship since ace or nine or river might scare him. Although I'm still pretty sure that he will pay off some bet. If board pairs I can easily muck. Which is better play?

Comments

  • chequearoundcc Posts: 122Subscriber
    Get the money in now....
    Now I say this trusting that he isn't folding.
    You just can't be concerned with the amount of money going in here. That type of fear will kill you. Good players smell that shit.
    Get the money in the pot and be confident in yourself for making the right decision.
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    you're like an 80% favorite here - winning 4 out of 5 times if he's got a set
    he can have 2 pair, which you're even further ahead
    he could also have Q9
    since there's no flush in sight - it's an easy ship
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    edited July 2015
    In theory shipping turn is best cuz we get a lot of money in with the nuts as a big favorite. But one question : since shipping that much in live poker is a big bet and will cause opponents at 5/10nl, especially tight players, to reconsider hero's possible holdings. Is this guy capable / likely to c/r/f a set?

    It is possible , tho unlikely. We just don't want him making a hero fold. I know, I know: aggressive action theorem, but when 350 bigs deep , people start to think a bit more before committing stacks.
  • chequearoundcc Posts: 122Subscriber
    chilidog said:
    In theory shipping turn is best cuz we get a lot of money in with the nuts as a big favorite. But one question : since shipping that much in live poker is a big bet and will cause opponents at 5/10nl, especially tight players, to reconsider hero's possible holdings. Is this guy capable / likely to c/r/f a set?

    It is possible , tho unlikely. We just don't want him making a hero fold. I know, I know: aggressive action theorem, but when 350 bigs deep , people start to think a bit more before committing stacks.
    Your not being irrational. But OP does state villain is never folding. Basically passing up gettin it in as a huge fav to make sure the nuts don't change on the river.

    After reading your comment, it occurred to me that passing up a turn shove can only lead to villain having more reason to find a fold on a river that doesn't change the nut hand.
  • AlexB Posts: 160Subscriber
    I counted the action killer cards: A, Q, 9 bring one liner to a straight. Q is especially bad, because any Ace now beats a set. This is 10 cards in the deck, or roughly one in 5.

    So 20% of the time we loose to a boat and we can muck because opponents hand is face up. He is first to act and doesn't know what we have. Also, I don't think he is necessarily going to fold after putting in $60+$180+$1200, almost half his stack. He may fold to a shove on the river but these type of players tend to spazz out anyway because they get scared of the river card and don't know what to do - not capable of folding a set. Against a better player shoving is definitely the right play but I'm still not so sure against this guy. What's the point of getting it in being 80% favorite if we know his hand exactly and we can get it in being 100% favorite on the river 80% of the time. The other 20% of the time when a one liner shows up we can bet $1000 and still get "tilt" called.


  • bobswaggetbobswagget Posts: 37Subscriber
    Ship all day, he's almost never folding when he raises the turn. Your hand is well disguised and it's possible that he's suffering from tunnnel vision with a set and doesn't even see the Broadway straight possibility.
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    edited July 2015
    Calling is very clearly the best play if you are 100% sure he stacks off on any card 8 or lower, which seems like a very reasonable assumption to me.

    I'd probably just fold preflop though.
  • AJD804AJD804 Posts: 184Subscriber
    Well eventhough you didnt expressly say it, Im assuming you have this guy on either a set of Js or Ks. So with that said, are you folding every time this board pairs? If you are then I guess you can call and wait for the river,because with the stack sizes, he is shipping every flop that doesnt bring an A or Q. And he might even panic ship when one of those cards does fall. If you arent going to automatically fold when the board pairs, then I guess shipping is best
  • AlexB Posts: 160Subscriber
    Aesah said:
    Calling is very clearly the best play if you are 100% sure he stacks off on any card 8 or lower, which seems like a very reasonable assumption to me.

    I'd probably just fold preflop though.
    Against an incompetent player 300+BB deep who has a big pair I'm calling with a very wide range all the time. It's not like I'm going to double him up on a Qxx board, and I can get some value from his KK even if an Ace flops. Agree that I would rather have 75o here than AQ

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