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Bet/Fold or check/fold river line idk thoughts?

400 effective 2/5nl
villain(cigartom) is a loose passive spot limps and cold calls 85% of hand and i am pretty sure he is scared of me.
1 limp from mp hero raises 20(redAA) villain calls otb limper calls 20

flop(60) 9d 8s 6d
limper checks , hero bets 45 , villain calls quickly 45, limper folds

turn (150) Kd hero bets 70 villain calls. thoughts on my sizing and what do you think optimal sizing should be ?

river(290) 5c hero ?

Comments

  • chequearoundcc Posts: 122Subscriber
    Any worse hands that call $70 also call $120. You aren't getting better to fold. That's a fact. So if you are betting for value alone $120 is better than $70z if you get raised after the front door flush comes in I think u can safely fold.
    As played i bet $150 on the river.
    It's basically a blank.
    I think u get value from some worse hands vs called by 2 pair or better enough times to make a bet +EV
  • StarwarsJediMasterStarwarsJediMaster Posts: 741Subscriber
    chequearoundcc said:
    Any worse hands that call $70 also call $120. You aren't getting better to fold. That's a fact. So if you are betting for value alone $120 is better than $70z if you get raised after the front door flush comes in I think u can safely fold.
    As played i bet $150 on the river.
    It's basically a blank.
    I think u get value from some worse hands vs called by 2 pair or better enough times to make a bet +EV
    "It's basically a blank" I think its a brick too in terms of 2pair combos , but I felt at the time that his range is so wide pre it contains so many 7x hands, and slow played flushes.
    If I bet I will get called by every combo of 9T,J9,Q9,A9and a few combos of T8,T6s and hand I lose to are 97,95s,85,65,67,87,47,T7,J7,few comboQ7s,K7s,few comboA7, and every two pair combo he decided not to raise the flop and turn which I don't think is likely (conditional probability ). Is my logic of thinking flawed ? I do value bet line but I am very uncomfortable in these types of river spots vs loose passive players oop on 4 liner runouts and 4 liner flush runouts. more thoughts please on what my thought process should be ?

  • chequearoundcc Posts: 122Subscriber
    I guess I didn't notice that the river brought a 4 liner to a straight.
    Although I'm not sure villain is hanging onto one pair plus a seven with the turn bringing the third diamond.
    I've seen crazier happen.
    I stand behind my turn thinking though. I think we need to be betting more than $70.
  • MrFizzbinMrFizzbin Posts: 356Subscriber
    If he's a passive player he's probably not going to bluff.

    Bet about 75-100 fold to any re-raise because you're beat.
  • FoldtoMyRaiseFoldtoMyRaise Posts: 312Subscriber
    edited July 2015
    What hands are you getting value from that are worse than your hand if you are value betting and you are good more than 50% of the time when called?

    Just saw the hands you mentioned above... Based upon the hands mentioned above you will get called by about 48 combos you beat and lose to about 113 combos. If those are accurate ranges for this opponent based upon the action and your knowledge of this player, then I think you should check the river as you are not getting to the 50% threshold and you are value betting too thin.

    If you are turning your made hand into a bluff on the river what better hands are you getting to fold?
  • StarwarsJediMasterStarwarsJediMaster Posts: 741Subscriber
    FoldtoMyRaise said:
    What hands are you getting value from that are worse than your hand if you are value betting and you are good more than 50% of the time when called?

    Just saw the hands you mentioned above... Based upon the hands mentioned above you will get called by about 48 combos you beat and lose to about 113 combos. If those are accurate ranges for this opponent based upon the action and your knowledge of this player, then I think you should check the river as you are not getting to the 50% threshold and you are value betting too thin.

    If you are turning your made hand into a bluff on the river what better hands are you getting to fold?
    That was my thinking at the time and check folded to a bet, and i knew he wouldn't bluff.
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