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Fold or play for stacks

Doc Posts: 31Subscriber
5-10 game at Hollywood Park. Frequently straddled pots. Villain is a very active middle aged Russian who is raising and 3 betting many pots.

It is one hour into the session and I have been getting no cards. My image is generally poor and nitty. Effective stacks are $1600.

Russian opens in early position to $45. Call, call and I raise to $165 on the button with AK hearts. Russian calls and other two fold.

Flop comes Ad 8s 3s. Russian checks and I bet $260. Russian moves all-in and covers my remaining stack.

I am loosing to AA, which is unlikely as one is on the board and I have a blocker. I also loose to 88, 33, A8 and A3 but also not terribly likely.

Anyone think this is not a call?

Doc

Comments

  • Floyd Posts: 160Subscriber
    He can have a lot of TP and FDs aswell. AT AJ AQ AK I do think he is shoving sets expecting AK to call. 8's and 3's are definitely most likely. Still so close. I think it's a fold. 6 combos of sets. AK is free rolling and top two is crushing you. The more I think of it the more I fold.
  • bobswaggetbobswagget Posts: 37Subscriber
    Fold, I think his range is highly weighted to A8, AK, A3 and against that range you are crushed. With this line he's not bluffing in my opinion. Wait and find a better spot. Try and goad him into showing your hand, watch these types of villains and see how they play their draws and big hands.
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    edited July 2015
    BOARD: A 8 3

    If he's got A X - and he's like 45% to win
    If he's got K X, you're 60/40.

    I don't think he's got a set or two pair.
    So the question becomes, do you want to flip for your stack?


    [BTW - "lose" means not winning. "loose" means not tight]
  • DavidChan Posts: 1,208Pro
    Does the Russian Villain go by the name "German?"

    In any case, I think you should always call. If you are against 2pair+, that is just a cooler.

    Preflop 3bet was too small though. I prefer $200-$225.
  • Doc Posts: 31Subscriber
    Yes, David. It was "German".

    Doc
  • Doc Posts: 31Subscriber
    David, what do you think of Beauregard's comments and are you willing to flip for stacks based on German's possible range of hands?
  • AJD804AJD804 Posts: 184Subscriber
    Does this Russian guy think you are nitty? Or is he the type of player that doesnt pay attention to that stuff and just fires regardless? Im thinking that if he pays attention and thinks you are nitty, he could be doing this with a lot less than Ax He might have a smaller Ace in his hand and thinks he can check raise you off of something. I dont think you are beat here the majority of the time and think you are 55/45 at worst. If my math is right you need to call 1175 into a pot of 1855. You are getting the right price to call,so I guess its a call
  • nariman44nariman44 Posts: 96Subscriber
    lets go into the Russian villain head.
    assuming he is not maniac and somewhat reasonable.
    he should tell to himself:
    1- this guy is a nit, he has not played any hand yet.
    2- oh, this nitty guy just 3bet 3 players after 1 hour, he must have something!
    3- he is C-betting 61% of the pot on a A high flop.
    now do you still think he is bluffing?
    do you think that he thinks he has fold equity?
    don't you think that he easily associates you to an Ace but he is STILL check raising all in?

    he knows you have the ace, therefore 1 pair is not enough here. his range is at least pair and FD.

    So fold and wait for a better spot.
  • AJD804AJD804 Posts: 184Subscriber
    Well lets dig a little deeper into the villain's head for a second. If Im the villain up against a nitty player, why would I overbet the pot so much with two pair +? If we truly believe we are up against the nit, the only way we are getting called is by a hand that has us beat. Do we really think that a nit would call off his whole stack getting less than 2-1 with one pair? A true nit might not even do that with two pair. Now this is also assuming that the villain truly views us as a nit, or at least nitty tonight. If there is history we arent being told about then I think your conclusions could be correct
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