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2/5 bottom set facing 3bet

HavaxHavax Posts: 65Subscriber
2/5 Maryland Live - 5 handed

Hero ($1,000): Late 20s, white, glasses. Playing TAG, very card dead and not involved often. The last hand I played was against V where I raised UTG with JJ and bet flop and turn on a Qd8d6s5c board and V called flop and turn with 99 and checked back 2 river and I was good.

V1 ($830): Late 20s, white. When he came to the table 2 hours ago my friend said he was pretty nitty. Despite this, I've seen him pretty involved but not really getting into any huge pots. Was playing pretty standard TAG from what I could see. I've never seen him in the 2/5 pool before so he's not a consistent reg but he's probably slightly better than your average rec player. Can't recall any hands besides the one in the description I detailed.

Hand: I am UTG and limp with 3 3 . Directly to my left is a short-stacked TAG V2 who made it $30 (standard table open) with $350 behind. V1 calls directly to his left on BTN. Everyone else folds and I call.

Flop ($95):

T 9 3

I lead for $40. V2 raises to $90. V1 thinks for a second, peers over at V2 and asks how much he has behind, then announces he's all-in ($800 behind).

Hero?

Comments

  • FuzzyDunlop Posts: 139Subscriber
    You have to call here. There's no way you can fold bottom set on that board without a lot of history and very strong reads on the players.

    If someone has a bigger set then it's a cooler.
  • HavaxHavax Posts: 65Subscriber
    edited July 2015
    Let me know if my combination work is off here:

    I lose to 6 combinations of sets of 99 and TT.

    I am beating 3 combos of 9Ts and 6 combos QJhh, J8hh (can I count both of these even though they both use the Jh?), AThh, KThh, JThh, 78hh. That's 9 combos I'm beating.

    Since I'm losing to 6 and beating 9ish, does this make this a call? However, even if I'm "right" and I'm beating him, the only hand I have murdered is 9Ts and the rest I'm basically flipping against as a small favorite.
  • elemeffayeoh Posts: 26Subscriber
    I would fold preflop because you're not getting 15x from preflop raiser. AP, I would call. He could have AT or an Ace High flush draw or two over cards with a flush draw. You're ahead of his range. Btw, there are 9 combos of T9. There are more combos you're ahead of than behind. I call.
  • FuzzyDunlop Posts: 139Subscriber
    Havax said:
    Let me know if my combination work is off here:

    I lose to 6 combinations of sets of 99 and TT.

    I am beating 3 combos of 9Ts and 6 combos QJhh, J8hh (can I count both of these even though they both use the Jh?), AThh, KThh, JThh, 78hh. That's 9 combos I'm beating.

    Since I'm losing to 6 and beating 9ish, does this make this a call? However, even if I'm "right" and I'm beating him, the only hand I have murdered is 9Ts and the rest I'm basically flipping against as a small favorite.
    Yes, you do count both QJhh & J8hh.

    If you were giving equal weighting to all those combinations and you were certain he wasn't shoving with non-heart OESDs then, yes, equity-wise you could find a fold as you are behind against that very specific range.

    However, with him shoving, it looks like he's going for max fold equity against you which weights his range more towards draws (or 2 pair) than a set. Unless you've seen him make this same play multiple times and he has had a set each time then folding is way too tight.

  • HavaxHavax Posts: 65Subscriber
    edited July 2015
    elemeffayeoh said:
    I would fold preflop because you're not getting 15x from preflop raiser. AP, I would call. He could have AT or an Ace High flush draw or two over cards with a flush draw. You're ahead of his range. Btw, there are 9 combos of T9. There are more combos you're ahead of than behind. I call.
    Do we use 15x the size of the full raise or 15x the size of how much more it is for me to call (in this case $25?) I have always heard the 10x rule, is 15x better?

    Also there are only 2 combinations of 9Ts now that I think of it (this guy would not be calling a raise with 9To). He can't have 9Tcc or 9Thh because the Tc and 9h is on the flop.
  • Bandgeek Posts: 140Subscriber
    Havax said:
    Let me know if my combination work is off here:

    I lose to 6 combinations of sets of 99 and TT.

    I am beating 3 combos of 9Ts and 6 combos QJhh, J8hh (can I count both of these even though they both use the Jh?), AThh, KThh, JThh, 78hh. That's 9 combos I'm beating.

    Since I'm losing to 6 and beating 9ish, does this make this a call? However, even if I'm "right" and I'm beating him, the only hand I have murdered is 9Ts and the rest I'm basically flipping against as a small favorite.
    It looks like the only hands youre considering for V are ones with pair + flush draw or combo draw. I think a FD with 2 overcards is likely as well, maybe a SD with two overs also.

    No way I'm folding here.

  • Bandgeek Posts: 140Subscriber
    Havax said:
    elemeffayeoh said:
    I would fold preflop because you're not getting 15x from preflop raiser. AP, I would call. He could have AT or an Ace High flush draw or two over cards with a flush draw. You're ahead of his range. Btw, there are 9 combos of T9. There are more combos you're ahead of than behind. I call.
    Do we use 15x the size of the full raise or 15x the size of how much more it is for me to call (in this case $25?) I have always heard the 10x rule, is 15x better?

    Also there are only 2 combinations of 9Ts now that I think of it (this guy would not be calling a raise with 9To). He can't have 9Tcc or 9Thh because the Tc and 9h is on the flop.
    15x the size of the raise you have to call. You're callng 25, theres already 65 in the pot, and V has 350 behind, so youre getting 16x.

    Your odds of flopping a set are 8 to 1. Alot of ppl say you need 10 to 1 odds to call. Bart recommends 15 to 1 to allow for the times you hit a set and dont get paid off, and the times you hit a set and still lose.
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,097Subscriber
    edited July 2015
    It's a tough one!
    If players are as solid as you describe I don't see V1 ever bluffing/overplaying here.

    TT, and 99 are Def in his range.
    It comes down to - do you think he has T9o in his range and JJ

    If he never calling with T9o and almost never just Flatting JJ pre / wouldn't over ship JJ in this spot I think u have to lay it down :(

    I think V2 has some kind of T due to sizing (but I guess OP possible - I just think he would want to raise more to protect vs V1 behind with OP), which means only 1 combo of TT for V1 but I think u still don't have enough EQ unless V1 has a lot of combos of T9 which u need him to play T9o for...
  • Drew5harkDrew5hark Posts: 574Subscriber
    I'm not folding this one...T9 and occasionally overpairs or AK ish hands are in ranges here
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,097Subscriber
    Results?
  • tensor0910 Posts: 123Subscriber
    Would V1 raise w/ V2 left to act and risk scaring him away if he had top/middle set? And would V2 actually overbet shove for the same reasons? If you can answer no to both these questions then I think this is a call.
  • AlexB Posts: 160Subscriber
    This is a very easy call. You both are not very deep and you're not considering that villain could even have an over pair here. He is playing against the other villain who has raised you and your donk bet seems like a weak attempt.

    Even in deeps stack games it's pretty standard to call off here with 300BB. I might consider folding if stacks are over 300BB. I don't see a point calling preflop to set mine if you're not going to call all in here? Why are you calling with such small dominated pairs then...
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    Call

    Why are you donk betting $40 into $90??? Seems really odd. If you're playing against a short stack and a tag, I'd expect the short stack to be a lot of hands and be willing to get it in. If v2 checks, I'd expect the tag to be betting a lot. If we x/r v2, he will probably get it in lighter since he's short and gives us a chance to get a call from v1 before he gets raised out of the pot. If we x/r V1, then it will look weaker since we're raising a field bettor. In the event they both check, oh well, they probably didn't have much and are drawing slim even on a board this drawy.

    And if you donk bet, then why $40? That's less than half pot. We're giving really good odds for them to peel cheaply. It also prevents us from having a good stack to jam if v2 calls. For instance, the pot would be $170 ($90+$40+$40) if v2 calls and v1 folds, leaving him $280 left. If we instead bet something like $80, there would be $250 in the pot and $240 left in stacks. We could then at least jam turn for under pot.
  • HavaxHavax Posts: 65Subscriber
    I folded. Other guy folded. Guy claimed he had QJhh. I donked to get exactly the sort of action I got. Didnt expect a 160bb overshove from a nit though.
  • GusFritschie Posts: 102Subscriber
    Do we ever like a raise pre UTG with small pp? Was the table usually just limping after one limper or was there a lot of raising pre? I either fold pre or open here.
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