Welcome.

Take a tour. Enjoy some free sample content.

How it works

Free Video: CLP Video No. 287: Home Game Bart Reviews His Splashy At $1-$3 Deep Part 2

Free Podcast: CLP Podcast No. 54: Time Warp And Turn Value
New to Crush Live Poker?

equity, barrel thoughts.

750Effective 2/5nl hero has neutral image
Utg nit opens 20 folds to hero in mp (5c4c)calls and button calls
Flop(60) 5s Tc Qc
Nit bets30. Hero raises to 90 , button folds nit calls after about 15 seconds
Turn(240) Jd
Nit snap checks hero ? Thoughts?
«1

Comments

  • Neverclassy Posts: 20Subscriber
    edited July 2015
    I think you should fold pre, you still have quite a few people to act behind being in MP and you'll find better spots with a tight utg than this... AP I'm probably checking back.. He obviously has something and the J will probably only help his range. Sometimes it's okay to take the card you paid for on the turn, I just don't see a lot of hands that are able to call a raise otf (let alone open utg if they're tight) that a J doesn't help, or at least scare away.
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    That is a really bad card. Not only could that have been the card to hit their hand to where they have more than one pair, now their one pair hands also have a draw with them. KK is never folding this runout. AA now has a gutter. AQ has a gutter. AK is a straight and JJ is a set.

    I'd check and give up. I think anything under a jack would be a fine barrel card but the broadways just smash his range. Take the free card and realize some equity.
  • Bandgeek Posts: 140Subscriber
    The preflop call is ok because of stack sizes but I dont agree with raising the nit on this flop. What are you going to do if he 3bets you to 275-350?

    At this point, take the free card and hope to suckout and get value on the river.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,004Subscriber
    Preflop call is standard against a tight opening range.

    I'm not usually raising this flop. The advantage of raising with draws is giving yourself two ways to win - folding out better hands, or making your draw. A nitty UTG raiser that is betting this flop isn't folding to a raise. Just call and try and hit your hand.

    As played, check the turn back. Villain isn't folding. Bink a 4 or 5 and take him to valuetown.
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    LOL!
    a nit raises from UTG and you want to call with 5 4 and go heads up?
    Are you crazy? bored? or just independently wealthy?

    I could see calling if 2 or 3 other players called.
    but the nit's range pre-flop vs your hand is 35/65 at best!
    In most cases, you're probably a 20/80 dog.
    This has got to be a major leak and -ev play all day long.

    I'd recommend you play with Flopzilla, poker stove or poker cruncher to learn more about equities.

    as played - check back and hope that nit doesn't have A K
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    beauregard said:
    LOL!
    a nit raises from UTG and you want to call with 5 4 and go heads up?
    Are you crazy? bored? or just independently wealthy?

    I could see calling if 2 or 3 other players called.
    but the nit's range pre-flop vs your hand is 35/65 at best!
    In most cases, you're probably a 20/80 dog.
    This has got to be a major leak and -ev play all day long.

    I'd recommend you play with Flopzilla, poker stove or poker cruncher to learn more about equities.

    as played - check back and hope that nit doesn't have A K
    So we should fold 88 too since we're normally 80/20 underdog?

    Pre is totally fine. We can win some big pots if we hit our hand and we can also win other ways (like if he gives up on the flop or if he Cbet/shuts down when he misses the flop). If he just barrels huge, then okay, he's got AA and we can fold. But nits will gladly let us take the pot away when they flop nothing or have marginal made hands.
    Bandgeek said:
    The preflop call is ok because of stack sizes but I dont agree with raising the nit on this flop. What are you going to do if he 3bets you to 275-350?

    Against AA, KK, QQ, TT, AQ, we are about 44%. I wouldn't feel that bad if he raised. We can still get a lot of hands to fold, like AK, AJ, JJ. Depending on how much of a nit he is, we may even be able to get folds from KQ/AQ if we barrel. Raising seems fine to me.

  • Bandgeek Posts: 140Subscriber
    Why put money in as a dog when we have position on the aggressor and a good draw? I dont think we have much fold equity on this board against a nits UTG raising range. I think to win here we have to make our hand, so lets keep our stack intact until we do.
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    DrGambol said:
    So we should fold 88 too since we're normally 80/20 underdog?
    Not necessarily - Nit may have AK to which we're a favorite. (If he's a true Nit, he's not betting the flop if no A or K comes.)
    It's all about ranges.
    Plus, if we play fit or fold - we lose the minimum and win the max (once we hit our hand) - provided that we don't get set over setted (which is rare)

    5 4 is a drawing hand.
    here, we're 100% behind a nit's UTG raising range. 100%
    nothing can be more absolute than that!
    If the flop come 236 or - it's quite obvious what we have and we don't win the max (unless nit is actually a drooler).
    So we're taking all the risk by calling from behind.
    We're having to put money in bad to hopefully catch our draw.
    And if nit has a bigger draw and we hit, we're getting felted for our efforts (which is not rare).

    I don't know about you - but I'm at the table to win money.
    Poker stove how often 54s hits 2-pair or better vs. Nit's range and I guarantee you, it's a -ev play.... unless your playing it at LATB for advertising purposes.
  • FreeLunch Posts: 1,308Pro
    edited July 2015
    beauregard

    You are obviously a thoughtful player. You seem to approach poker by looking at the situation by evaluating the equity one street at a time. Obviously we all agree that he was behind pre flop. I invite you to consider this concept: There are lots of ways to make money in poker without having the right equity in the moment.

    I assume you agree that we profit from other players mistakes. There are two major mistakes we can capitalize on by playing hands like this when deep. One mistake is that nits will often stack off with an over pair. The other mistake is that people fold too much to pressure. As long as the nit in question makes one of these mistakes, then when deep, why not take advantage of these mistakes.

    If you never play hands like this in these situations your are essentially saying, "I know that this player makes this mistake but I will just let him keep doing it and instead of profiting from the mistake I will just wait my turn until I get a better hand than him"
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,004Subscriber
    It totally depends on what kind of "nit" we're playing against. A typical nit at 2/5 will sit around, wait for aces or kings, then will never let them go no matter how rough/scary the board gets. I'm playing suited connectors for a single raise (deep enough) all day every day against that kind of player.

    But if this "nit" is a nit both preflop and postflop, and will only put money in the pot with the nuts, then I'm not playing implied odds hands against them.

    All we have to go on in this hand is "UTG nit". If he's a typical 2/5 nit, then 45s is very profitable in this spot.
  • uWannaChop Posts: 37Subscriber
    Calling pre is fine if u think u have implied odds, agreed that turn hits his range a lot and the made hands he has won't fold just check back turn.
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    dpbuck said:
    But if this "nit" is a nit both preflop and postflop, and will only put money in the pot with the nuts, then I'm not playing implied odds hands against them.

    If they only put money in the pot with the nuts, then we should play 54cc and try to bluff him
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    FreeLunch said:
    I assume you agree that we profit from other players mistakes. There are two major mistakes we can capitalize on by playing hands like this when deep. One mistake is that nits will often stack off with an over pair. The other mistake is that people fold too much to pressure.
    Agree that there are times to play a nit with suited connectors and times when it's unprofitable. Based on action - nit seems like he's happy to stack off with a pair - so we have to hit our hand.
    I just think Heads Up - this is a fold. In a multiway pot - we've got better odds and more fold equity.
    If I called every nit's UTG raise with a suited connector expecting to realize my RIO, I'd be a losing player for the year.
    There are times and places for this kind of play - me thinks in this spot it's... as Chan would say... "very optimistic."
  • StarwarsJediMasterStarwarsJediMaster Posts: 741Subscriber
    beauregard said:
    FreeLunch said:
    I assume you agree that we profit from other players mistakes. There are two major mistakes we can capitalize on by playing hands like this when deep. One mistake is that nits will often stack off with an over pair. The other mistake is that people fold too much to pressure.
    Agree that there are times to play a nit with suited connectors and times when it's unprofitable. Based on action - nit seems like he's happy to stack off with a pair - so we have to hit our hand.
    I just think Heads Up - this is a fold. In a multiway pot - we've got better odds and more fold equity.
    If I called every nit's UTG raise with a suited connector expecting to realize my RIO, I'd be a losing player for the year.
    There are times and places for this kind of play - me thinks in this spot it's... as Chan would say... "very optimistic."
    doesn't make any sense if there's more players in the pot when we hit a flush with say 67s their can be other hands that over flush us and make better 2pairs than us if we flop or turn 2pair , but heads up vs the nit he may only have a few combos of flush draws that cooler us, and less reverse implied odds hands overall heads up vs nit. Than field callers and the nit.
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    StarwarsJediMaster said:
    doesn't make any sense if there's more players in the pot when we hit a flush with say 67s their can be other hands that over flush us and make better 2pairs than us if we flop or turn 2pair , but heads up vs the nit he may only have a few combos of flush draws that cooler us, and less reverse implied odds hands overall heads up vs nit. Than field callers and the nit.
    again, I recommend you play with flopzilla or pokerstove. when you've got two flush cards - the odds of someone having bigger flush cards (of the same suit) are diminished.
    That's not to say it never happens. But it's a rare event. In addition, when others have the cards of the same suit- i becomes less likely that a flush comes (since so many of the cards are out of play)

    when you're playing suited connectors - you typically have 20-35% equity pre-flop (again depending on whether or not someone has the same cards or not) - so whenever you're calling HU against a nit's tight UTG opening range - you're losing Sklansky bucks and Galfond bucks by making this call... meaning, it's -ev in the long term.

    When 2 or more callers come in the pot - you're then getting more "correct odds" to play your suited connectors.

    Think of it in pure math terms:
    if V just is playing AA, KK, QQ and AKs 100% of the time - your equity is 24.5%
    And in a lot of those scenarios when you do hit your hand (I estimate 50%+) it's going to be so obvious what you have, you may not get paid.
    Typically, you'll also be losing a lot more than just the pfr that you're calling. Because you're going to call a lot of flops and turns hoping to hit.

    Bart estimates you need 25X stacks for you to have the proper mining odds.
    Sure, V's got over 500 - but in today's games - it's becoming rarer for Vs to stack off with one pair, esp on a flushed board or str8 board. (at least in my games) So the mistakes/leaks that FreeLunch is talking about - I don't see as often as I would like.

    Look: a lot of players think this call is cool... and I understand why. But in my games, unless the pot is multiway, I'm sure it's -ev vs. an UTG nit raise HU. Maybe your games play differently. But unless you're planning on being fearless and playing your hand like a set - (in this hand: bet $210 on turn and AI on river) - then I don't see how it's ever profitable.
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    beauregard said:


    And in a lot of those scenarios when you do hit your hand (I estimate 50%+) it's going to be so obvious what you have, you may not get paid.
    The fact that we won't get paid because it's so obvious what we have is exactly why we can call and bluff good runouts. And we can bluff when he just check/gives up on the flop or turn when he isn't comfortable (like when he raises 99 or AK and the flop is J high).
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    DrGambol said:

    The fact that we won't get paid because it's so obvious what we have is exactly why we can call and bluff good runouts. And we can bluff when he just check/gives up on the flop or turn when he isn't comfortable (like when he raises 99 or AK and the flop is J high).
    so what do you do on this turn?
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    beauregard said:
    DrGambol said:

    The fact that we won't get paid because it's so obvious what we have is exactly why we can call and bluff good runouts. And we can bluff when he just check/gives up on the flop or turn when he isn't comfortable (like when he raises 99 or AK and the flop is J high).
    so what do you do on this turn?
    I'd check and try to hit my flush as my first post said in this thread. This is a spot where pretty much everything in his range hit, so I wouldn't go after this type of board texture. Flop is close between raising/calling. We can get some folds but he does hit this board a decent amount to.

    Our main value we get from bluffing isn't when he b/c a high board and another broadway card hits. Our value comes from him x/f flops and turns he doesn't like, from b/f vs our semibluff raises on scarier boards for his range (mostly lower boards where he's capped at an overpair). We aren't going to have much success bluffing this specific board texture. I don't think that makes the preflop call -EV. We were just unfortunate that he hit a really good flop for his range and that he didn't have a hand that would fold flop and he hit a good turn and we missed our draw. That's quite the parlay and we still have 9 outs to a flush and outs to 2 pair/trips that could be good with a free card to come. I don't think that's bad at all in one of our worst case scenarios where he hits perfect and we still have around 20% equity with a free card to hit.

  • DavidChan Posts: 1,208Pro
    I think preflop is correct. I would say that folding 54cc preflop at these stack sizes to a nit (who probably isn't very good) would be giving up on some easy potential profit.

    As far as postflop goes, I question your flop raise. Why are you raising flop? I suspect that you are raising the flop because you have a combo draw, but you don't really know WHY you are raising flop.

    So, I ask again, why are you raising flop?
  • DavidChan Posts: 1,208Pro
    dpbuck said:
    It totally depends on what kind of "nit" we're playing against. A typical nit at 2/5 will sit around, wait for aces or kings, then will never let them go no matter how rough/scary the board gets. I'm playing suited connectors for a single raise (deep enough) all day every day against that kind of player.

    But if this "nit" is a nit both preflop and postflop, and will only put money in the pot with the nuts, then I'm not playing implied odds hands against them.

    All we have to go on in this hand is "UTG nit". If he's a typical 2/5 nit, then 45s is very profitable in this spot.
    I disagree with this idea. If someone is a nit preflop and postflop and will only put significant money in the pot with the nuts, then that suggests that he plays badly, Instead of having the mistake of overplaying overpairs, he has MUBS (monsters under the bed syndrome). Just as we can exploit Villains who can't fold overpair, we can also exploit Villains who have MUBS.

    I would almost never fold 54cc to someone's raise at these stack sizes UNLESS I were playing against a super-wizard who I thought would outplay me by a significant margin.

Sign In or Register to comment.