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1/2 NL - Math Question with Sidepots

1/2NL
UTG($230) Limps w/ As8s
CO(Hero-$375) raises $10 w/ KcKd
SB($80) calls $10 w/ Qd9s
UTG calls $10

Flop($32): Qs9c6s
UTG checks
Hero bets $18
SB raises to $45
UTG calls $45
Hero raises all in
SB calls $20
UTG calls $185

Main Pot = $227
Side Pot = $ 310

In game I was pretty sure that the SB was beating me, but that UTG overcalled with spades of some sort so I overjammed the flop. After the hand, I realized that with UTG having a lot of equity in this spot, that it might not be as easy a jam as I thought. Lets assume that everyone has the exact hands that I posted, can someone help me with the math to figure out if a jam or fold is more +EV.

Comments

  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    ok, I'll take a shot...

    on the flop, we're obviously behind two pair - he's got 48% equity
    KK has ~16% equity in the main pot.
    our outs are any 6, one K (K is bad for us unless board pairs again) and whatever the turn is... provided it's not a spade as well.
    the nut flush has 8 spade outs and 3 Ace outs... he's at ~36% equity
    that's for the main pot.

    now the side pot:
    heads up vs. the nut flush - we're ahead, but not by much
    we're like 54% vs 46%

    so on the flop, nut flush made the right move.
    he's needed 33% to call the three way all in - and he's ahead of that
    and on for the side pot - he's essentially 50/50 going HU with KK

    that fact that players at your table called your pfr with such marginal hands tells me you need to size your opening raise larger. when the table calls lighter, you need to value-bet larger. 15-23 would be a better sizing.

    personally, as played - it looks like UTG is on a draw vs. SB's nutted hand - so I don't see what you accomplish by shoving here. you've got no fold equity - and your hand doesn't seem to be the best. (for all you know, SB has a set)
    I would have just smooth-called and jammed on a non-spade or Ace turn.

    hope this helps
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