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1/2 nl hand flop decision $800 effective

regfish Posts: 34Member
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
I was playing some 1/2 nl at a local casino. I had been playing for a few hours and was swinging between 250 and 650. Prob. viewed by most at the table as loose aggressive or at least somewhat loose aggressive. Guy on my right was asian, looked to be in his 30's, and wearing a suit jacket and sunglasses. He was playing fairly lag and running well. He was capable of bluffing but he would also move all in on river for huge overbets and every time he had the nuts. I played a few pots against him most of which I lost. I 3bet him a few times but no big money went in postflop. One hand of note against him happened not too long before this. He opened mp I 3bet next in with AA w/ $400 effective stacks. He called flop came A94 2 tone. He donked 50 into 70 into me and I raised to 150 and he jammed. I scooped and he later said he had 999.

Onto the hand. Straddle was on and i'm in the bb. Folds to villian in sb who opens for 25, I call with Ad6d ($800 eff. stacks) . Flop is A63 with the 6 and 3 being spades. Villain bets 35, I raise to 105. Villian hesitates for a bit and then jams. Thoughts. Thanks.
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Comments

  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    Bad call PF. It's hard to make it profitable.
    Call on the flop. Unlikely that he opens with 33 PF(?) Only 1 combo of AA and 1 of 66 left and he wouldn't jam them 100% of time he has them. Very likely that he plays flush draw this way.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    What? How is calling pre bad with stack sizes of 800?? Villain's PFR is huge, so the SPR goes down, but still we have position and more than enough room postflop.

    Regfish, is 25 a regular openraise size at this table / by villain? It's huge! What does that tell you? Would he raise that large with hands like A3o, A6o, A3s, A6s, 33, 66, 54s, 63s?

    Depending on what hands he is likely to play that way preflop, you can stove your equity against that range.
    Something like:
    - Hands you are chopping or almost flipping against: A6, AsXs
    - Hands you beat / are ahead of: A3, 63s(?), 54s
    - Hands that crush you: AA, 66(?), 33(?)

    So, if you think he wouldn't raise hands like 66 and 33 preflop to 25, but he is able to shove AsXs over your flop raise, I'd probably call off. If he is more likely to raise 66 and 33 that large, but would probably only call your raise with AsXs, it's more of a fold.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    WYP-
    It looks like he said there was a straddle on, which would make it $4 or $5 to go, so $25 isn't that huge.

    Calling pre with really deep effective stacks is fine with a hand that can make the nuts. However when u raise u need to be anticipating your reaction to his potential actions: re-raise smallish, ship, call. You have flopped a strong hand with top 2 pair, but a hand that can be vulnerable , flipping (AXss), or drawing close to dead (AA, 66). People always completely discount the possibility of villian having top or middle set based on our blockers but it does happen more than we might think. ( try a few hours of plo and note how often a case card hits the board). The only reasonable hand villian can have where we are a big fave is AK (not suited in spades).

    It is a tough spot for sure, but I find myself leaning towards folding: partly as I want to make sure to be able to stay deep vs villian, and partly cuz I hate drawing dead in 800 BB pots. With 100 BBs this is a no brainer ship, but with a big SPR I think we are making a mistake getting all in on the flop. I think what I'm proposing is calling down with many runouts, and probably folding if he keeps bombing on a spade turn / river. ***nit alert***
  • regfish Posts: 34Member
    TDF said

    Bad call PF. It's hard to make it profitable.
    Call on the flop. Unlikely that he opens with 33 PF(?) Only 1 combo of AA and 1 of 66 left and he wouldn't jam them 100% of time he has them. Very likely that he plays flush draw this way.
    I feel like I could make it profitable getting over 30 to 1 in implied odds. I call suited aces with somewhat less implied odds because they have good equity against big pairs like KK and QQ. Most villians at these stakes aren't good enough to not telegraph there hand strength in some way once an ace flops. Also even if he does have AA I have good implieds to crack them.
  • regfish Posts: 34Member
    chilidog said

    WYP-
    It looks like he said there was a straddle on, which would make it $4 or $5 to go, so $25 isn't that huge.

    Calling pre with really deep effective stacks is fine with a hand that can make the nuts. However when u raise u need to be anticipating your reaction to his potential actions: re-raise smallish, ship, call. You have flopped a strong hand with top 2 pair, but a hand that can be vulnerable , flipping (AXss), or drawing close to dead (AA, 66). People always completely discount the possibility of villian having top or middle set based on our blockers but it does happen more than we might think. ( try a few hours of plo and note how often a case card hits the board). The only reasonable hand villian can have where we are a big fave is AK (not suited in spades).

    It is a tough spot for sure, but I find myself leaning towards folding: partly as I want to make sure to be able to stay deep vs villian, and partly cuz I hate drawing dead in 800 BB pots. With 100 BBs this is a no brainer ship, but with a big SPR I think we are making a mistake getting all in on the flop. I think what I'm proposing is calling down with many runouts, and probably folding if he keeps bombing on a spade turn / river. ***nit alert***
    I am in your camp the vast majority of the time when it comes to knowing what your going to do if you get raised when you make a bet. This spot was a bit different in that I thought since villain could potentially be getting frustrated since I recently coolered him for a large pot and had also been pretty lag towards his bets with some 3bets and some calling down light that it was a spot that I would raise and have to make a "game time decision". I would be the first to say that physical tells are lol (or at least should not be used in an significant manner to deviate from solid logic, gameflow, math, etc) but I did (obv.) give him a hard look after he shipped. I also used that trick where I acted like I was going muck my hand and then put a chip back on it and went back into the tank to see if I noticed any differences in the way he was behaving. I did notice that after I recapped my cards and as more time went on (I took about 5 mins to make a decision) he was starting to lean farther back in his chair and he kind of started to have an uncomfortable smile/laugh and kind of said he didn't care if I called. I am confident that this guy just wouldn't jam without a big combo draw (ie 45s), Axs or a set. I thought he may jam some of the time with A3 and maybe with 63 but I doubt that is in his range. I think that he very rarley shows up with a dry AK due to having watched him play for a few hours. So my question is can the physical reads and recent history of him getting coolered be enough to outweigh the facts that my price to call isn't great and that every other time he shoved for redic. overbets he had the nuts?
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    regfish said
    TDF said
    Bad call PF. It's hard to make it profitable..
    I feel like I could make it profitable getting over 30 to 1 in implied odds. I call suited aces with somewhat less implied odds because they have good equity against big pairs like KK and QQ. Most villians at these stakes aren't good enough to not telegraph there hand strength in some way once an ace flops. Also even if he does have AA I have good implieds to crack them.
    Do you think he will put $800 in the pot postflop with one pair on 3 to flush board? You have blocker to AA so it needs to be discounted. Do you think he will go broke with KK on Axx? Yes, you win sometimes but I don't think you can win enough to overcome huge PF investment. The only way I see to make this call profitable is by bluffing him postflop high percentage of time. Also don't forget that your reverse implied odds are huge as well. You need to account for you loosing your stack sometimes when you call PF.
  • regfish Posts: 34Member
    TDF said
    regfish said
    TDF said
    Bad call PF. It's hard to make it profitable..
    I feel like I could make it profitable getting over 30 to 1 in implied odds. I call suited aces with somewhat less implied odds because they have good equity against big pairs like KK and QQ. Most villians at these stakes aren't good enough to not telegraph there hand strength in some way once an ace flops. Also even if he does have AA I have good implieds to crack them.
    Do you think he will put $800 in the pot postflop with one pair on 3 to flush board? You have blocker to AA so it needs to be discounted. Do you think he will go broke with KK on Axx? Yes, you win sometimes but I don't think you can win enough to overcome huge PF investment. The only way I see to make this call profitable is by bluffing him postflop high percentage of time. Also don't forget that your reverse implied odds are huge as well. You need to account for you loosing your stack sometimes when you call PF.
    Your right I wont stack him the vast majority of the time. But I do think i'm going to win pretty large pots if I make trips or a flush and he has an overpair. I also realize that he will not lose much if any if I flop an A and he has KK or QQ. But he also isn't good enough to make my life tough. He will just check to me and I can win the pot on the flop or turn. As far as bluffing him a good amount I think you have me there. I wasn't prepared to bluff him alot because I didn't think he would be folding enough. Hence the reason I say I thought I had good implied odds. Lastly, imo I have very little reverse implieds for this hand. I don't think I would get even close to stacked this deep if it came like AK6 and heavy pressure got put on me. He just wasn't a balanced enough player.
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    Just to win this pot is not good enaugh for you - you need to win a lot or very often to make up for PF.
    If you think you never get in tough spot why are you posting this hand?
    If he's not balanced you should know exactly what to do here on the flop.
    You will get stacked in a cooler situation when you flop flush and he flop set or you flop trips and he flops boat or you loose a lot when you flop NFD and he flops set. This is non zero possibility.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Preflop is not the interesting part of this hand IMO. We have more than 30x the openraise behind and position with a hand that can make very nutty hands. Saying this is a fold pre is pretty results oriented. If we want to avoid to get into difficult spots postflop, we should either buy in for 30 BB and openship every playable hand, or just get up and leave. But that's not very helpful for OP.

    I sincerely believe that physical tells and demeanor can make a significant difference in CLOSE spots where you can't up with a reasonable anwer based on hand reading and betting patterns.
  • Philly Dave Posts: 114Subscriber
    regfish said

    **He was capable of bluffing but he would also move all in on river for huge overbets and every time he had the nuts.**

    **Villain bets 35, I raise to 105. Villian hesitates for a bit and then jams.**
    I'm not the preflop police but A6s is not a usually a hand I am calling when the Laggy SB bets 25 into a $7 pot with the straddler still to act behind. Our best flops are usually going to be our flush draws / pair + flush draws. Good lags are going to make these draws difficult and should not be paying us off nearly enough to make them profitable given the marginal hands we will flop the rest of the time IMO but whatever.

    As a general rule, some of the biggest self leveling I see is in straddle pots. Just because it is a straddle there tends to be a suspicion of wider ranges and I see a lot of people get into huge pots in spots they wouldn't be in non straddle pots. Not saying that is the case here but just an observation.

    Personally given the little info you have provided (ie you have no history of villain shipping draws or air) here think this is a fold. I will assume he would do this with Top pair / NFD and all of his sets but I we really have no reason to believe he overbet ships his draws as you have only told us he will overbet ship for value with the nuts).

    Against a range of AA, 33, 66 and AsTs+ (would villain overbet ship these draws?) we have 31% equity. We need 41% equity to call here. So his range would have to include some other hands such as other AK hands or straight/flush combos or some air to give us the required equity. Since we have shown strength by calling P/F and now reraising the flop Villain has to consider sets in our range. So basically if you think he would ship AK and TP/FD hands here you can call. Personnally I suspect he is shipping for value based on your description which would make this a fold. A call wpuld be based on a LOL live read.

    I will be interested in results though.
  • Philly Dave Posts: 114Subscriber
    regfish said
    TDF said

    Bad call PF. It's hard to make it profitable.
    Call on the flop. Unlikely that he opens with 33 PF(?) Only 1 combo of AA and 1 of 66 left and he wouldn't jam them 100% of time he has them. Very likely that he plays flush draw this way.
    Also even if he does have AA I have good implieds to crack them.
    Implied odds are based on bets you can expect to get called on future streets. Having large effective stacks is PART of the equation, EXPECTING to get called is another. Flushes and trips are unconcealed and inherently provide less implied odds for us than straights and sets. A6s makes flushes and trips or usually top/bottom or top / middle pair. It is not that great of an implied odds hand. I actually prefer a hand like A4s that can at least hit a wheel.
  • Philly Dave Posts: 114Subscriber
    TDF said

    Bad call PF. It's hard to make it profitable.
    Call on the flop. Unlikely that he opens with 33 PF(?) Only 1 combo of AA and 1 of 66 and he wouldn't jam them 100% of time he has them. Very likely that he plays flush draw this way.
    Can you explain the bolded part of your statement? Are you saying his shoving range is weighted towards flush draws? If so I don't really agree in fact from Villains POV our raising range is probably weighted a little toward flush draws sometimes and IMO is the only reason we could possibly also include AK type hands in his shoving range. It also is why he might actually try to shove for value with his sets now.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Alright, I did some calculations to come up with a somewhat objective answer.

    Assumptions:
    Villain will play the following hands as in the hand example:
    - AA (1 combo)
    - 66 (1x)
    - 33 (3x)
    - A6s (1x)
    - A3s (1x)
    - some combos of AsXs (between 0 - 10x)

    => He won't openraise to 25 with A6o, A3o.
    => He won't ship the flop with any one pair Ax hands without two spades.

    => our equity against his possible hands:
    AA: 0,1%
    66: 8,8%
    33: 16,8%
    A6s: 50%
    A3s: 89,6%
    AsXs. 57,1% (average over all possible combos)

    Now, we can calculate the break-even point. We need 41.8% equity (additional 670 into a pot of 934). In order to break even, villain has to play 6 combos of AsXs this way. If he chooses this line with 7 or more AsXs combos, we have to call. I.e. the threshold (weakest hand in his range) is As7s.
  • Philly Dave Posts: 114Subscriber
    whatsyourplay? said

    Alright, I did some calculations to come up with a somewhat objective answer.

    Assumptions:
    Villain will play the following hands as in the hand example:
    - AA (1 combo)
    - 66 (1x)
    - 33 (3x)
    - A6s (1x)
    - A3s (1x)
    - some combos of AsXs (between 0 - 10x)

    => He won't openraise to 25 with A6o, A3o.
    => He won't ship the flop with any one pair Ax hands without two spades.

    => our equity against his possible hands:
    AA: 0,1%
    66: 8,8%
    33: 16,8%
    A6s: 50%
    A3s: 89,6%
    AsXs. 57,1% (average over all possible combos)

    Now, we can calculate the break-even point. We need 41.8% equity (additional 670 into a pot of 934). In order to break even, villain has to play 6 combos of AsXs this way. If he chooses this line with 7 or more AsXs combos, we have to call. I.e. the threshold (weakest hand in his range) is As7s.
    If villain's range includes any AsXs combo here he is very spewey and I did not get that impression from OPs description. Based on OPs description Villain has up up to now , when called after overbet shipping or putting big money in either shown the nuts or been coolered. But yes you have to Add AX combos to his range to get enough equity to justify a call.
  • PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
    I also don't like the PF call. I understand we can make nutty hands, but what are the odds that we flop something like 663 and he also has a six or stacks an overpair. By that logic we should call his pf raise with almost any 2 cards, since we could flop trips and stack an overpair.

    A lot of the time our "nutty flop" is a flush draw + overcard. Although that's good, this guy is nuts and doesn't like to fold. So we don't have a ton of fold equity. Most of the time we miss, and he's nuts, so he'll bet and we'll fold. I don't think we're going to airball bluff him a lot since he'll just call down anyway.

    I would much prefer a hand like QJo here to A6s if the guy is so nuts he's raising something like ATC here. Although we make fewer nut hands, we hit the flop more and can continue on more often. A6s we're usually just folding post.
  • regfish Posts: 34Member
    PokerIsFrustrating said

    I also don't like the PF call. I understand we can make nutty hands, but what are the odds that we flop something like 663 and he also has a six or stacks an overpair. By that logic we should call his pf raise with almost any 2 cards, since we could flop trips and stack an overpair.

    A lot of the time our "nutty flop" is a flush draw + overcard. Although that's good, this guy is nuts and doesn't like to fold. So we don't have a ton of fold equity. Most of the time we miss, and he's nuts, so he'll bet and we'll fold. I don't think we're going to airball bluff him a lot since he'll just call down anyway.

    I would much prefer a hand like QJo here to A6s if the guy is so nuts he's raising something like ATC here. Although we make fewer nut hands, we hit the flop more and can continue on more often. A6s we're usually just folding post.
    Yeah so if he's not going to fold he is the type of player that I can win big pots off when I hit. Also most people here that are against my preflop call (which I think is super standard) are saying that I won't get stacks if I hit big. We are deep enough that I don't need to get stacks every time for it to be profitable. If I make an average of like 400 or 500 I think it will be a profitable call long term. Since there are a few of us that seem to be in the camp that this deep this is an easy call and a few in the camp that the call is clearly minus ev I'm curious what Bart thinks.
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    WYP, I would remove some if not all combos of 33 from your range and add some naked flush draws like KQs, KJs, QJs.
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    regfish said Also most people here that are against my preflop call (which I think is super standard)
    This is why we point this out to you. It does not matter much if you call of fold on the flop because you are not making big mistake here - this situation comes very rarely so it does not affect your winrate much. But if PF is standard for you - this is potentially a very big mistake cause this situation comes very often and if you make mistake here it cost you a lot of money in the long run.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    ok, I might have to adjust villain's range a bit. I also left out 45s which he might play this way, or other suited unpaired hands. However, I think it won't the results significantly, since all those hands have around 50% equity.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    PokerIsFrustrating said

    I also don't like the PF call. I understand we can make nutty hands, but what are the odds that we flop something like 663 and he also has a six or stacks an overpair. By that logic we should call his pf raise with almost any 2 cards, since we could flop trips and stack an overpair.

    A lot of the time our "nutty flop" is a flush draw + overcard. Although that's good, this guy is nuts and doesn't like to fold. So we don't have a ton of fold equity. Most of the time we miss, and he's nuts, so he'll bet and we'll fold. I don't think we're going to airball bluff him a lot since he'll just call down anyway.

    I would much prefer a hand like QJo here to A6s if the guy is so nuts he's raising something like ATC here. Although we make fewer nut hands, we hit the flop more and can continue on more often. A6s we're usually just folding post.
    I don't agree with this at all. We are not playing against Tom Dwan here, and we have position and deep stacks. What is he going to do with hands like KQ, JT, 77 or any other decent hand if he doesn't hit the flop really hard? Cbet and shut down? Barrel three streets? There's no way we can't play this hand profitably in position. And who says we need to hit really hard ourselves? There are so many other ways to win the hand, with or without showdown.
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