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tptk faced river raise 400nl

maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
9handed, blind 2-4.

Hero sb with AKo. effective stacks with V1 ~1k, hero should be regarded by V1 as a quite loose aggressive and solid player.

V1 UTG: reg with some leaks in my opinion (calling to loose on the river e.g.). i have seen him playing quite tight overall and in that session, no special reads- younger guy, probably professional poker player

V1 limps, 3 or 4 limpers follow, hero raises to 26. V1 calls, rest folds. flop J22 rainbow, hero bets 40, V1 calls. turn K, hero bets 100, V1 calls, river 4, hero bets 170, V1 raises to 420, hero???

thoughts: flop/turn bets and sizing standard i guess, river sizing i am not sure, thought about overbetting to make it look like a wanna fold out a hand like AJ but then decided to bet smaller because i did not see a reason for him to look me up light with no reads. however, i expect him to fold almost always anyway.
when he finally raises, the only hands which make sense to play that way is A2s and 44. i do not expect him to raise KJ as AA do beat him and not many players on 2-4 will hero call here with my hand. even a raise with A2s or 44 is close in my opinion and he might probably call these as well some portion of the time. additionally with 44 he might fold the flop or the turn, as he should expect me to barrell a lot with my strong sb raising range.

is this a fold for anyone or is it even better to ship it allin to make him fold A2s or 44? (he has only about 400 left)

Comments

  • bobo1384 Posts: 145Subscriber
    If he's not gonna raise KJ on the river than I doubt he's calling two streets with 44.

    I think river is a bet/fold.

    Even though he is repping super thin I think this is a fold. The board is very dry and with no draws I can't think of a hand he'd turn into a bluff other than air. I don't think tight players are calling 2 streets with air to bluff raise the river. I expect him to show up with KJ or a deuce.

    Reshipping is bad because he's never folding trips+ and never calling with worse
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    There's no need to bet 40 on the flop. I would bet 30 to the same effect or more often check it back.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    I am folding this without any specific reads. Agree that his value range is pretty narrow. But still much wider than his bluffing range. Nobody tries to bluff in this spot after you have shown strength on four subsequent streets. And the 4 is just a really bad card to bluff. I think he has A2s, 22, JJ and possibly KK most of the time.

    Why would he not raise A2 in this spot? What should he be afraid of? KK and JJ??

    I also agree with bobo that reshipping is bad. I even think it's absolute suicide. You can't expect to fold out A2, and that's only the bottom of his range.

    Sizing looks fine to me, only the flop cbet could be a bit smaller, as mentioned by TDF.
  • maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    yes reshipping might only be good vs a very good thinking opponent who is capable of making big laydowns which i do not expect at nl400, and even if- 22 is never folding and actually this is the hand which makes most sense, flop sizing i could make it 30 (probably i even did- hand is about 1 week ago).
    i never expect this guy to limp/call KK or JJ and i also think he is capable of calling me down light because the board runout is very good for me to barrell. tough i do not know why he would raise the river with his bluffcatchers instead of just calling if he thinks i am bluffing. therefore i guess it is indeed a bet/fold
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