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2/5 - Flopped set facing river overbet

flyingtriangleflyingtriangle Posts: 101Subscriber
edited August 2015 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Local underground $2/$5 game. 1 table, 10 handed, small player pool so everyone has lots of history.

Villain is in the BB with an $1,100 effective stack. White guy, mid 40's, winning reg who plays a tight range preflop. Very rarely gets out of line, usually plays ABC / face-up.

Hero (white guy, mid 30's, covers) has a winning TAG image, although Villain is aware that I’m capable of cbetting and barreling off as a bluff on occasion. (We played a hand a couple of months ago where Hero raised pre with AQs, bet twice on flop & turn, then checked river. Villain had a gutshot/BDFD that ran into bottom pair and bet river as a bluff. Hero called with ace-high and villain won the pot.)

Hero opens to $25 from UTG+1 with T T, folds around to the SB, who calls, and Villain calls from the BB.

Flop ($75): A T 8
SB checks, Villain checks, Hero bets $65, SB folds, Villain calls.

Turn ($205): 6
Villain checks, Hero bets $165, Villain calls.

River ($535): K
Villain throws out 6 black $100 chips, leaving himself only about $250 behind. Hero ???

Comments

  • ClockClock Posts: 1,133Subscriber
    edited August 2015
    Is he bluffing missed FD 1 out of 3 times?
    There isn't even that many FD that don't have some kind of pair in them.

    I can't imagine what worse hand he's v-betting on river here...
    He shouldn't really have AT due to flop and turn flatting.
    Also if he was slow playing AT, why would he absolutely BOMB it on river when AK is totally in your range? (Plus we block 2 tens so it's super unlikely)

    I guess AK might be possible if he's not 3betting it and plays it cautiously.
    Would he absolutely bomb it on the river like that though? Doesn't add up...

    88 possibly? but I doubt it...
    Let's say he did slow play flop with 88.
    When you bet turn for 3/4 pot your line looks pretty strong, so why woudn't he go for x/r with a set especially on pretty wet board.
    Again, if he's a nit and was scared that you have him beat, why is he bombing river now?

    Bottom line if you say he's solid and doesn't get outta line much, he has what he's repping - THE NUTS (most likely Q J exactly)
  • pokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    Agree with clock. If he's ABC he'd have to be bluffing or thinking you have AQ when he has 2 pair or overplaying AK/AT or under set. Not sure a good reg make a mistake like this so it's really bluff or nuts time. if I was sitting there I might make a crying call but fold is really the right play with the dynamics you giving. I don't think he's bluffing enough to call an over bet plus if he's only got $250 left you should be shoving for value if you think your good. Your not getting odds for any of that so you better be good.
  • Dab44 Posts: 411Subscriber
    I'm probably just folding to an ABC guy here..He never bets AQ on the river for that sizing..He could have AK, but its unlikely, he may 3 bet u pre. Also, I doubt he waits till the river to bomb a set ( board is fairly wet ) we know he doesn't want a bad beat..He has QJ here alot. Probably find a fold here.
  • nickdevo1 Posts: 163Subscriber
    in your history, villain knows you call down light (no-pair) and so he might be value betting something worse here.
    on the other hand, the villain also called twice with gut shots in the past and this time the J-Q got there on the river. i also noticed that 9-7 got there on the turn and he may take this line to make it look like he missed a flush.
    i'd sigh and fold. i often do fold sets on boards and action like this, but i'm a bankroll nit.
  • flyingtriangleflyingtriangle Posts: 101Subscriber
    Thanks for the responses guys.

    Yeah, I agree that this guy is going to show up with QJ a lot after taking this line. In game I was thinking he can also have some busted flush draws in his range, and if he's putting me on Ax he may think I won't be able to call such a big river bet even if I made aces up. Or he has QJ and is banking on me not being able to fold AK...

    In any case I completely discount AA (would have raised by now), KK (wouldn't have continued this far), and 97 (definitely would have raised on the turn), so QJ is the only hand in his range that beats me. But I guess the question is whether he has enough other hands in his range to call off here.

    Is anyone thinking about raising all in for villain's last $250?
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,133Subscriber
    For you to call, he needs to be bluffing (with busted FD I guess) more than 1 out of 3 times.
    For you to shove he needs to be betting a hand worse than yours - AQ, 88 I suppose.

    You obv would have the best read on the player (especially since you have history), but based on your descriptions I think both scenarios are optimistic IMO
  • johnamenjohnamen Posts: 55Subscriber
    Hmmmm I think that K 10 can be getting to the river, spike 2 pair ? Also if he isn't very aggro pre, AK can be in his flatting range in the bb. The odds arnt great but what do you think about the chances of him showing up with 2 pair?
  • flyingtriangleflyingtriangle Posts: 101Subscriber
    Not sure how he would play 2 pair here, but AKo and AKs are both definitely in villain's range when he flats my EP open from the BB.
  • johnamenjohnamen Posts: 55Subscriber
    I agree. So if you throw AK in there along with he nuts, do you think it's a profitable call when getting 2:1 on it? Think your good 1 out of 3 times? Is this how odds works?
  • chequearoundcc Posts: 122Subscriber
    I'm surprised there hasn't been more discussion involving the actual SIZE of this river bet. Is it erratic behavior from this V?
    Personally I think these types of situations can only be assessed through game flow, live reads, can we get a grip of the way this V was playing on this night? Was he stuck, up big? Has he been running good?
    When I face an over bet the first thing I think before anything else is "what does he think I have?" Am I so polarized to this player that I'm either calling anything or folding? Does this guy think I call super
    Light and he's getting greedy with some two pair BS? Did he even think I was gonna bet the river?
    Now with all that being said an going from your OP (which I read five times to be sure) I think this V backed into a hand. If it was marginal he'd go for the hero call. So that leaves two possible straights (now matter how hard I try I can't discount 97) and KTdd, AK, most of his preflight range doesn't include hands that got this far and are now turned into bluffs (most of those have hero call written all over them) I'm not a math wizard. I don't think there's any sense in stoving the combinations. I really believe that game flow and examining how this guys session in going so far will point you in the right direction!
  • flyingtriangleflyingtriangle Posts: 101Subscriber
    This hand went down near the end of the night (around 12:30 a.m., game had started at 7:00 p.m.). Villain had been having an average session playing his usual nitty style and was up probably $300-$400 for the night. Hero has been running like god this session and is up almost $1,500, twice having made the nut straight (flopped QJT with AK and turned KTxA with QJ) and gotten paid off.

    For what it's worth I've probably played with this villain 40 times in the past year, and can't ever recall seeing him take a check/call, check/call, overbet lead line before this hand. One thing I will say is that I definitely do not think he's expecting me to call him down light when he bets $600 into $530 on this river. (In the hand history where I called him with A-high his river bet was relatively small in proportion to pot size.) But that still leaves open the question of whether he's trying to get me to fold an ace or he's hoping to get paid off by AK that he doesn't think I would be able to fold...

  • chequearoundcc Posts: 122Subscriber
    edited August 2015
    With everything I wrote earlier in mind...
    And everything you wrote in response to that post, here is my conclusions p this over bet:
    1. This is a value bet/He wants to be called/he's not bluffing.
    2. You are still ahead some of the time if not a good amount of the time.
    3. I often see nitty players start to get a little greedy when it comes to value LATE IN THE SESSION, even when they are in the black/up for the sesh, especially if they are running well that session and even still so if they are running "normal"/not bad.
    My theory on nitty players (not the bad ones) is that they only really have worthwhile winning sessions when they run hot or they get paid off (opponents make mistakes against them). They can only control the latter, and this is what I am gathering is happening here. Nits are not like us. They do not isolate and exploit. To make $$ as a nit you either need nonthinking opponents or a crazy ass image.
  • hectorjelly Posts: 47Subscriber
    edited August 2015
    Tough hand, qj is a double gutter on the flop so is firmly in his hand range going to the turn. I think I'd fold but its close, its such a weird line to take. Given your history he might be thinking he needs to really pump it to get you to fold. We're considering folding a set here so its a pretty good bluffing spot. I would expect a winning reg to fold a naked QJ on the turn (having only 6 good outs and oop), if he is that type of player then I suppose it leans towards a call since he is repping only one combo.

    Two quick additions, Villain is firmly representing missed diamonds and in my experience whenever a good player does this they have the nuts, but secondly is there any chance villain plays AK like this? If so again it leads me to want to call.
  • flyingtriangleflyingtriangle Posts: 101Subscriber
    Point #3 is really interesting, and makes a lot of sense. Definitely something I'm going to try to watch out for in the future.

    Thanks everyone for the responses. I'll post the results tomorrow.
  • flyingtriangleflyingtriangle Posts: 101Subscriber
    edited August 2015
    Result:

    I tanked for probably two minutes, and ultimately decided that even though this is going to be QJ a lot of the time, villain can still show up with a busted flush draw or some other value hand that I beat often enough to make the call.

    As I toss the chips in, villain announces "two pair... probably the same two pair you have" and turns over AKo. I table my set and drag in the pot.

    I'm not really sure what villain was hoping to accomplish by overbetting the pot with top two pair on this board. I can't imagine he would expect me to call with worse, unless he was trying to represent a busted flush draw to get me to bluffcatch with one pair? Or maybe he put me on AK and was trying to get me off of a chop? Either way I thought this was a really weird spot.
  • johnamenjohnamen Posts: 55Subscriber
    Hmmmm. Cool.
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