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Nut full house technically bluff catcher

UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Villain is straightforward and fastplays. When he has a hand, he bets it. And I don't think he bluffs much either.

2/5 800 effective

One limp, villain overlimps, I make it $25 from CO, villain calls

Flop ($62) 886r
Villain checks
Hero bets $30
Villain raises to $75
Hero should have folded the damn flop but decides to call one time

Turn ($212) 9
Villain bets $100
Hero raises to $250
Villain tank calls

River ($712) 8
Villain ships

The problem here is, the only thing here in his value range is an 8

Comments

  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    hero holds 99?
    obv when the 8 hits the river, that severely limits the combos of 8x he can have. that is a sick spot, and on the surface it looks like a fold. but i think there are probably other hands he can have here: like any over pair. a lot of players are going to think AA/KK is the nuts here when the third 8 hits.
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    I forgot what I had. I only remember what I was trying to represent after floating the flop and raising turn to rep extreme strength ;)

    Lol J/K

    Yes, I had 99
  • CruelUltimatum Posts: 160Subscriber
    You don't think he's ever doing this with 66? A lot of players think "I flopped full house, I can't fold" and overplay their hands in that spot. What kind of 8s do you think he's calling your preflop raise with?

    I assigned him a range of:

    A8s K8s Q8s J8s T8s 98s 78s 68s
    A8o T8o 98o 78o 68o 66

    Board: 8h 8d 9c 6s 8c
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 13.636% 13.64% 00.00% 3 0.00 { 9d9h }
    Hand 1: 86.364% 86.36% 00.00% 19 0.00 { 66, As8s, Ks8s, Qs8s, Js8s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 8s7s, 8s6s, Ac8s, Ad8s, Ah8s, Tc8s, Td8s, Th8s, 9c8s, 9d8s, 9h8s, 8s7c, 8s7d, 8s7h, 8s6c, 8s6d, 8s6h }

    If you think he's got a more reasonable range of suited connectors, suited one-gappers, A8s, and the combos of unsuited A8, then your call is closer:

    Board: 8h 8d 9c 6s 8c
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 30.000% 30.00% 00.00% 3 0.00 { 9d9h }
    Hand 1: 70.000% 70.00% 00.00% 7 0.00 { 66, As8s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 8s7s, 8s6s, Ac8s, Ad8s, Ah8s }

    If you think he's not going to call with suited one-gappers or A8o to a raise OOP, then maybe you can find a call here. I don't know how loose this guy's tendencies are preflop. There's also the small % of "spaz factor" where he overplays big pocket pairs this way a small % of the time.
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    Why would he be turning 66 into a bluff against someone repping extreme strength? If he was frustrated, he would c/c

    And you guys do realize that I said this player was straightforward, right? Which means he isn't overlimping and calling with TT+ from MP
  • jmc Posts: 58Member
    Doesn't bluff + fast plays => he has 87?

    This is a really sick and bizarre hand.
  • bobo1384 Posts: 145Subscriber
    With what 8 is he tanking on the turn with?
  • BartBart Posts: 6,072AdministratorLeadPro
    Claire,

    Have you seen this guy flat with big pairs from the blind? It seems like he could have AA, KK or even QQ here. For that reason I'm calling at $550 for $1262 or about 2.25-1. Also do you think the villain is more likely to flat a non boat 8 on the turn or shove?

    Bart
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    He wasn't in the blinds. He was the second limped in, so he can't have AA or KK

    I made a "have to see it" call, which I've been pretty good at avoiding lately. A8s

    I think the best line for him is actually to check if I fold a non-zero percentage of the time. Because I bet 100% of the time if checked to but seriously consider folding when bet into. And if I happened to be bluffing, I might continue but will fold when bet into
  • napncrash Posts: 177Subscriber
    Claire: I was at the table when this happened... seat 2, directly to the left of the villain. Nice to meet you, ha.

    I witnessed this hand.

    The call of the checkraise on the flop was "mistake" #1. I'm not saying I'd never do this myself, I probably do it a lot and I hate myself. Anyway, this guy was not going to be check-raise bluffing. He was an older, recreational guy. He wasn't interested in "making plays." The most he would do if he thought you were just cbetting is call. That's what they do. So, as you said earlier, you should have folded the damn flop. :)

    Next, the ever-glorious turn. When he led out and you raised, it was immediately obvious what was going on here. Sorry to everyone else here trying to examine ranges, but you know how when you watch the action you get a better feel for what's really happening?

    Well, in my opinion at the time, old guy had a strong 8. Even if he had like 8T, he may not check-raise-lead. So this was trips high kicker or 89. When you raised, then YOUR hand is either 99 or 89. He called, making me think he just had trips and not a boat. This style player is not going to flat here with his big hand, he's gonna probably over-jam it in. But he's also smart enough to know that, with this action, he could totally be beat by a full house.

    Then the 8 hits the river and he panic over-ships. My brain: "Shit, 8 just got there and she has 99." And, Claire, I think you knew it, too. But you couldn't convince yourself that your read was right and he just smashed his card. Been there MANY times.

    Again, I'm not looking to disparage anyone's range opinion here, but I was there to watch and the actions of both players and the style of the villain answer most of the range questions.

    So he turns up his A8 and, although I didn't see it, completely assumed you had 99.

    He went over and talked to his buddy later and said, "I knew she had 99..." Which of course begs the question: then why did you call the turn?

    THEY'RE SO GOOOOOOOD!

    Claire; that was a gross beat, but I believe a fold to his ship on the river was correct (even before I saw it, I promise!) "That" guy is not check raising, then bet calling, then JAMMING the river strong with anything but an 8. MAYBE 89, but there's minimal combos of that considering most of the 9s and half the 8s are accounted for. And when he just flats your raise on the turn, I seriously doubt he flopped the bottom boat with 66. I feel he would have jammed the turn on you. Not all players, but that guy. He was oldmancoffee. Not clever, not interesting, your standard older guy... not particularly bad, but just playing cards.

    A cooler, for sure, but he screamed from the mountaintops that he hit his quads.

    Poker is easy. Two-outer gets one-outed. weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    Ahh, I think I remember you. The table was you, that spewtard a couple seats down from me, and a whole bunch of fish, right?

    I believe I was as bad as he was on this river.

    I put on an 8 on the flop and called anyway because it was a small raise. He put me on a full house on the turn and called anyway. I put him on quads on the river and called anyway.

    But these types of hands come up once every several years, so I'll just pretend it's a cooler instead of a stupid call on the river.
    napncrash said

    Claire: I was at the table when this happened... seat 2, directly to the left of the villain. Nice to meet you, ha.

    I witnessed this hand.

    The call of the checkraise on the flop was "mistake" #1. I'm not saying I'd never do this myself, I probably do it a lot and I hate myself. Anyway, this guy was not going to be check-raise bluffing. He was an older, recreational guy. He wasn't interested in "making plays." The most he would do if he thought you were just cbetting is call. That's what they do. So, as you said earlier, you should have folded the damn flop. :)

    Next, the ever-glorious turn. When he led out and you raised, it was immediately obvious what was going on here. Sorry to everyone else here trying to examine ranges, but you know how when you watch the action you get a better feel for what's really happening?

    Well, in my opinion at the time, old guy had a strong 8. Even if he had like 8T, he may not check-raise-lead. So this was trips high kicker or 89. When you raised, then YOUR hand is either 99 or 89. He called, making me think he just had trips and not a boat. This style player is not going to flat here with his big hand, he's gonna probably over-jam it in. But he's also smart enough to know that, with this action, he could totally be beat by a full house.

    Then the 8 hits the river and he panic over-ships. My brain: "Shit, 8 just got there and she has 99." And, Claire, I think you knew it, too. But you couldn't convince yourself that your read was right and he just smashed his card. Been there MANY times.

    Again, I'm not looking to disparage anyone's range opinion here, but I was there to watch and the actions of both players and the style of the villain answer most of the range questions.

    So he turns up his A8 and, although I didn't see it, completely assumed you had 99.

    He went over and talked to his buddy later and said, "I knew she had 99..." Which of course begs the question: then why did you call the turn?

    THEY'RE SO GOOOOOOOD!

    Claire; that was a gross beat, but I believe a fold to his ship on the river was correct (even before I saw it, I promise!) "That" guy is not check raising, then bet calling, then JAMMING the river strong with anything but an 8. MAYBE 89, but there's minimal combos of that considering most of the 9s and half the 8s are accounted for. And when he just flats your raise on the turn, I seriously doubt he flopped the bottom boat with 66. I feel he would have jammed the turn on you. Not all players, but that guy. He was oldmancoffee. Not clever, not interesting, your standard older guy... not particularly bad, but just playing cards.

    A cooler, for sure, but he screamed from the mountaintops that he hit his quads.

    Poker is easy. Two-outer gets one-outed. weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Claire

    There is 0% chance he ACTUALLY put you on 99s on the turn.. I love it when the fish say they had you on one specific hand.. You played back at him on the flop. I bet he had you on a possible straight draw, overpair, 8, ...

    but fish wont fold trips.. so he was going to go to the river regardless to see if you bet big and also to see if he could fill up. When the 8 hit his natural instinct was to shove because he had the nuts ..NOT because he thought you had nines full and would pay him off. You pretty much had the only hand to pay him off.

    had he really been hand reading he would realize that you cant really have a big hand.. most likely a small full house or possible the straight and he would have value bet small to get you to hero look him up..

    wendy
  • napncrash Posts: 177Subscriber
    My guess is that, when Claire raised the turn, he was CONCERNED about a full house, including 99, but he also had a pretty strong hand and wasn't willing to fold yet.

    Then, when he makes his quads, he's desperately HOPING you have 99. And when you tanked, then there was nothing else you could really have in this spot.

    If that river bricks or gives him an underfull, you can BOMB the river and get paid.
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