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Raise Fold the Flop on monotone board

wildncrazyguywildncrazyguy Posts: 422Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
I guess this should've been a raise fold on the flop? Bart said before in a similiar hand he can see worse calling if I raise this flop. Guess its villian dependant but in this case I guess a big heart could call. But would he given the stack sizes? I guess hes getting close tot he right odds if he had a nigh heart.

Merge, $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $356.83 (178.4 bb)
SB: $74 (37 bb)
BB: $184.25 (92.1 bb)
UTG+1: $86.60 (43.3 bb)
UTG+2: $140.60 (70.3 bb)
MP1: $267.60 (133.8 bb)
MP2: $416.50 (208.3 bb)
MP3: $71.90 (36 bb)
Hero (CO): $113.62 (56.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Qh Jc
2 folds, MP1 raises to $6, 2 folds, Hero calls $6, BTN folds, SB calls $5, BB calls $4

Flop: ($24) 4h Jh 2h (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets $12, MP1 calls $12, Hero raises to $50, 2 folds, MP1 raises to $102, Hero calls $52

Turn: ($240) Kc (2 players)
MP1 bets $6, Hero calls $5.62 and is all-in

River: ($251.24) 9h (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: $251.24 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: 4h Jh 2h Kc 9h
MP1 showed Kh Th and won $248.24 ($134.62 net)
Hero showed Qh Jc and lost (-$113.62 net)

Comments

  • bobo1384 Posts: 145Subscriber
    i would 3bet or fold pre, leaning towards folding because if im shortstacked I want to get money in good and I don't think QJ gets the money in good here.. I don't like flatting inviting other people in or inviting a squeeze from someone behind us.

    As played, Id probably either fold outright or raise smaller then fold to the flop 3bet. Im not super thrilled with raise folding with our stacksize if we aren't rebuying to full.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    I am folding this hand preflop at least 90% of the time and maybe 3betting it max. 10% of the time.
  • WackabrewWackabrew Posts: 400Subscriber
    Ugh. I don't like this spot. As Bobo said, I don't think you can raise fold given your stack size. We are getting ~4/1 on our last $50, so I would most likely just call it off, but I think we are getting it in pretty bad most of the time against a dominating flush draw or set.
  • kdogmc Posts: 100Subscriber
    Yes fold or raise pre. This flop puts you in the FOG. You don't know where you're at.

    And you're committed once you raise.

    If Villain is a loose lag raising is good and you can feel more confidant in this flop. But as played you're lost.
  • BartBart Posts: 6,072AdministratorLeadPro
    Dan--

    You are too short to call preflop. You also have to consider the hand range of the BB when he leads into the preflop raiser. It is almost impossible for him to have a naked high heart without a pair in his hand unless it is specifically AK or AQ, which is a 3bet online with a pretty high frequency. Everything else that leads has you beat including Jx Xh hands which are most likely AJ and KJ. I dont like your equity vs a lead out range and a call here one bit.

    Bart
  • wildncrazyguywildncrazyguy Posts: 422Subscriber
    Bart said

    Dan--

    You are too short to call preflop. You also have to consider the hand range of the BB when he leads into the preflop raiser. It is almost impossible for him to have a naked high heart without a pair in his hand unless it is specifically AK or AQ, which is a 3bet online with a pretty high frequency. Everything else that leads has you beat including Jx Xh hands which are most likely AJ and KJ. I dont like your equity vs a lead out range and a call here one bit.

    Bart
    Too short to call preflop? $6 with $100 and position? Really? Why? How deep do you feel you should be to call with a hand like QJ in position? Its not like I called $20 with $100 stack.

    Imposiible for him to have a high heart without a pair? Most donk bets are weak typically and many people when they donk a board like this they either have top pr or a good draw. I think its unusual for someone with a made flush to lead into the preflop raiser like this. You dont think so? I'm not agreeing with you on this. You dont agree with what I just said?
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Dan, I think this is another hand example where you mainly focus on the bottom part of villain's range and try to identify hands which you beat that villain can play that way. This way of thinking is a bit one-sided, and it results in making -EV decisions. Of course there might be a few hands which you are ahead of preflop and which don't make a pair on this flop. But the thing is that the total number of such combos is just miniscule compared to all possible hands that villain can have here which beat you. Remember that most villains' ranges are pretty narrow (i.e. high-card heavy and strong!) in full ring games.
  • WackabrewWackabrew Posts: 400Subscriber
    wildncrazyguy said
    Bart said

    Dan--

    You are too short to call preflop. You also have to consider the hand range of the BB when he leads into the preflop raiser. It is almost impossible for him to have a naked high heart without a pair in his hand unless it is specifically AK or AQ, which is a 3bet online with a pretty high frequency. Everything else that leads has you beat including Jx Xh hands which are most likely AJ and KJ. I dont like your equity vs a lead out range and a call here one bit.

    Bart
    Too short to call preflop? $6 with $100 and position? Really? Why? How deep do you feel you should be to call with a hand like QJ in position? Its not like I called $20 with $100 stack.

    Imposiible for him to have a high heart without a pair? Most donk bets are weak typically and many people when they donk a board like this they either have top pr or a good draw. I think its unusual for someone with a made flush to lead into the preflop raiser like this. You dont think so? I'm not agreeing with you on this. You dont agree with what I just said?
    With offsuit connectors I typially use 25x/30x as my threshold to call raises (even in position) against unknown openers. I'll loosen up those guidelines if I have history or some other type of meta game going on with Villian. So, for me, effective stacks would need to be ~180.

    w/r/t you comment about it being unusual for someone to donk into the PFR with a made flush, I feel that a good player might do that to try and represent that he has top pair or a draw, in addition to the fact that (at least live), fast playing the effective nuts is a great way to get paid. The PFR isn't going to c-bet into that type of board without any equity, and since opening ranges are wider online than in live play, the chances that the PFR has hit this board are minimal. I would want to get the money in as fast as I could, and not rely on others to do it for me (chek raise look too strong, tons of action killing cards on the turn, etc)

    w/r/t your comment on what he could be leading with here that contains a high heart or top pair, I'm just not sure what range we can assign to Villian that would be calling pre. We have the Qh and Jh is on the board, so that lowers the combos of QJs that villain can have to 2 (spades and diamonds). There are 3 combos of KQs (although most of the time I would see that as a 3-bet from EP), and thats about it, unless it JTs (only 2 Combos of that as well). It would be rare (in my experience) for anyone to have a pair+flush draw on this board given what you hold in your hand, because that would mean that they would have to have something like 23o, 45o, 34o, etc. and people just aren't playing those to a riase from EP in full ring on line games.
  • BartBart Posts: 6,072AdministratorLeadPro
    Yes. You are too short to call with about 57BB deep. Raises in online full ring games are very tight and the chances that you are dominated are high.

    Again it is almost impossible for your opponent to be leading with a naked flush draw that doesn't contain top pair. Guys aren't calling with A8os in full ring games. And those are the only hand that you have any sort of equity against. I'm curious to know what you think he is leading that you are ahead of?

    Bart
  • Definitely too short to call pre. As someone playing 1/2 NL online cash you should know these basic concepts. I'm really surprised. You're obviously no good against his raise on the flop, either.
  • wildncrazyguywildncrazyguy Posts: 422Subscriber
    fishcake said

    Definitely too short to call pre. As someone playing 1/2 NL online cash you should know these basic concepts. I'm really surprised. You're obviously no good against his raise on the flop, either.
    Instead of sounding condesending acting like you know it all and saying its a basic concept why dont you explain how calling with QJ in late pos for $6 with over $100 Eff is bad. HEM shows over many many hands this call preflop is +EV since I can out play my opponent and its a very playable hand in position.

    How is this a basic concept I should know Mr. Poker Pro? Explain besides the fact I can be dominated - No sht. But with position a good player can usually figure that out. I love how the nits like to criticize those of us which actually play poker vs playing like a nit folding every but AK and AQs on the button. I'm guessing your stats would just tell me to insta fold vs you A LOT. Yeah, good way to make money.
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