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2/5 - Unknown Villain overbet shoves All-In on flop

PiotrDembowy Posts: 6Member
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Effective Stacks: $500

Villain: Unknown. New player, just joined the game 1-2 orbits ago. Average looking white guy in his early 30s. Bought in for the $500 max.

Preflop: laggy young Asian kid opens to $15 utg+1, one caller, villain calls in late pos., Hero raises to $65 with AA from BB, everyone folds, villain calls.

Flop: ($160) T92r Hero bets $100, Villain tanks for about 1 minute and says "All-In"...

Hero?

Comments

  • eselspiel Posts: 115Subscriber
    Calls and (wins against Jacks)

    After he calls your bet, the pot is $360, and he's betting (effectively) about $335 into that pot. You're gettinger better than 2-1. If the villian's range is 99-QQ, T9, you have 50% equitiy. Take out the T9 and your equity increases, add some weirdly played AA,KK and your equity goes up as well.
  • ShawnCrichley Posts: 11Member
    Think I'd have to call against a tank shove. If he confidently puts all his money in less than 5-10 seconds I could fold here. JJ or QQ.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    PiotrDembowy said

    Effective Stacks: $500

    Villain: Unknown. New player, just joined the game 1-2 orbits ago. Average looking white guy in his early 30s. Bought in for the $500 max.

    Preflop: laggy young Asian kid opens to $15 utg+1, one caller, villain calls in late pos., Hero raises to $65 with AA from BB, everyone folds, villain calls.

    Flop: ($160) T92r Hero bets $100, Villain tanks for about 1 minute and says "All-In"...

    Hero?
    well there are 2 combos of sets of tens, 9s,&2s. I think 6 combos of kk-jj each..but I think kk not as likely since most players would reraise. so from a math perspective you can calculate your odds against this range. maybe even at. then you could decide how often someone would shove with these hands by your read in him.. for example if this player doesnt seem to overplay hands then AT probably is out. etc...

    wendy
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    1) Raise more pre flop.

    2) What was his body language like during that minute?
  • I can't see folding AA here in a 3 bet pot at this level. Ive seen it happen so many times that a guy will wait for a safe flop with a hand like QQ here. Youve also correctly priced him out of profitably set mining preflop.

    Bart
  • JamesSuh Posts: 320Subscriber
    In smaller limit capped games Bart, do you still go with the 15x rule for set mining, or do you go with 10x for smalller games and 15x for 5/10+?

    (Assuming 10x) I think the 3b sizing might be too small. The pot is already 65+15+15+15 and it's 50 more to call. So the pot is already 110 which he is getting 2-1 on, which he then needs to make another 390 to make the call profitable and he has another 435 behind.
  • nubbbbby Posts: 5Member
    JamesSuh said

    In smaller limit capped games Bart, do you still go with the 15x rule for set mining, or do you go with 10x for smalller games and 15x for 5/10+?

    (Assuming 10x) I think the 3b sizing might be too small. The pot is already 65+15+15+15 and it's 50 more to call. So the pot is already 110 which he is getting 2-1 on, which he then needs to make another 390 to make the call profitable and he has another 435 behind.
    That rule is in regards to your opponent stack and not immediate pot odds if I'm not mistaken. So raise is "$50" 10*50 = $500 is what your opponents stack must be to correctly set mine.
  • MattKGB Posts: 35Subscriber
    well there are 2 combos of sets of tens, 9s,&2s. I think 6 combos of kk-jj each..but I think kk not as likely since most players would reraise. so from a math perspective you can calculate your odds against this range. maybe even at. then you could decide how often someone would shove with these hands by your read in him.. for example if this player doesnt seem to overplay hands then AT probably is out. etc...

    wendy

    Not trying to be a smart ass but I think it's important . There're 9 combos of sets and 18 combos of overpairs left(not counting aces).
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    I saw a hand at 3/5 go down last week where two players got in $1800 on a flop of 2810r.

    One player had QQ
    One player had 108

    Preflop both players had limped and called a $40 raise.

    You have to go with AA here.
  • Call. Doesn't matter if he has TT or 99. He made a preflop mistake if he does.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    I think we have to include at least some combos of QJ (and possibly even 78s) in his range too. Small raise pre, a flat call of a normal sized 3bet, and a tank ship are all consistent with those hands. Maybe some players won't open QJ and/or 78s under the gun, but we don't know that about his range from the OP.

    ie, call with AA.
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