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purr anda flush draw

reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,146Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
2/5 NL, effective stacks are $750. Two villains are BB and MP limper, hero is OTB.

BB is drinking, gamol gambol gambooooool Asian, running pretty well. He's taken some money from me, we've had some banter, I lick my chops to get in a pot with him, because he's raising loose, not afraid to gamble. My first hand at the table, I was against him and won about $300 off him with a set of 8s. Since then he's owned me, being aggressive, getting lucky, etc. I haven't been able to get another big hand against him since.

MP is somewhat donkish Asian reg, a little loose, he's slightly tilted right now, lost a pot, has around $400 to start hand.

Hero starts hand with $750.

4 limpers, I limp the button with 56ss. BB raises to $40 total. Two callers, I call. Now, I know I'm not getting my full odds to call $35 more, but it was close, and I had position against the drinking gamol gambol BB, and I thought if I flopped big, I could get his whole stack.

Pot is $175.

Flop comes Ts 5d 3s. BB leads for $50, MP nearly instantly moves in his stack for around $350. I put him squarely on a T. If he had the nut flush draw or a set, I thought he would think about his play a bit.

Hero...???
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Comments

  • BigOwl Posts: 80Member
    I guess it comes down to what I think BB will do with JJ, QQ. If he will call your shove with those hands or not makes a big difference. If we get it in against AT and JJ we are pretty much a coin flip so I guess I shove and hope Mr Gambooool comes along.
    That being said I'm usually very much against pushing baby flush draws, and I'd have to be close to certain I'm not pushing into a better draw.
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    If I think MP has Tx than I call to invite BB to call also. If I think MP has FD I ship to push BB out.
    And I don't like PF. I would open raise and fold to raise.
  • kdogmc Posts: 100Subscriber
    Fold.

    BIg maybe if MP has a ten here. Seems pretty spazzy. But I see far more spazzy shoves with flush draws. There it is - flush draw - all in.

    TDF. If MP has FD then we're screwed. Why shove? His flush draw is crushing ours. And he can suck out with overs.

    If the BB comes along ( i suck at stove ) but we have like 22 percent equity and in this pot I think we need 27. Am I right?

    I fold.
  • Snap fold this hand. Best case scenario, you're up against a ten and pocket jacks, where you're a slight dog. Worst case scenario, you're up against a set and a better FD where you're drawing dead. His overbet shove means even if you're drawing to the nuts, you're barely getting odds against one pair hands, and still not getting odds against 2pair+. Not to mention that you don't even close the action. What do you do if BB overshoves?

    Wait for a better spot.
  • reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,146Subscriber
    JeffLisciandrello said

    Snap fold this hand. Best case scenario, you're up against a ten and pocket jacks, where you're a slight dog.

    Jeff,

    Easy to think that, right? I crunched it though, and against a T and an overpair, I'm 52.4%!!! No "slight dog," but a favorite over both hands. I thought like you did, that I would be a slight dog against those two hands - not the case.
  • kdogmc Posts: 100Subscriber
    You're really up against the shover and his range ...

    55,33,A2s, A4s, A10, K10, q10, J10, --- You vs that its a coin flip. 51 vs 48 You're behind barely. And I guess you're getting the odds. 1.5 to 1.
    175 + 350 = 525 / 350 = 1.5 to 1.

    But you're way behind or way ahead here.

    Now if you get lucky and add to the pot the BB who for some reason shoves with all of this action in front of him........

    You - 45%
    MP - 21%
    BB - 35 %

    Now maybe you're getting the odds. 750 for a 2k pot 2.7 to 1.

    I fold. Am I wrong. Does my math suck. Laying this out there to see if I'm doing this right.
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    kdogmc said
    TDF. If MP has FD then we're screwed. Why shove? His flush draw is crushing ours. And he can suck out with overs.
    We're slightly ahead of bigger FD and two overs cause we have a pair.
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    JeffLisciandrello said What do you do if BB overshoves?
    Call.
    Wait for a better spot.
    Not really a good strategy advice :)
  • reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,146Subscriber
    kdogmc said

    You're really up against the shover and his range ...

    55,33,A2s, A4s, A10, K10, q10, J10, --- You vs that its a coin flip. 51 vs 48 You're behind barely. And I guess you're getting the odds. 1.5 to 1.
    175 + 350 = 525 / 350 = 1.5 to 1.

    But you're way behind or way ahead here.

    Now if you get lucky and add to the pot the BB who for some reason shoves with all of this action in front of him........

    You - 45%
    MP - 21%
    BB - 35 %

    Now maybe you're getting the odds. 750 for a 2k pot 2.7 to 1.

    I fold. Am I wrong. Does my math suck. Laying this out there to see if I'm doing this right.
    Math is close kdog -

    Pot is $175 + $50 + $350 = $575, $350 to call, so a little better than 1.5 to 1. And (obv) MP villain has WAY more combos of tens (I'm slightly ahead of) and flush draws (again, slightly ahead of) then of sets (of which I'm a 70-30 dog) based on possible combos.

    So I guess I don't get your point that I'm way ahead or way behind here. I'm flipping to slightly ahead of most of his range, and 70-30 dog to a few combos of sets. But, like I said, I think he thinks for at LEAST a few seconds with a set to figure out how he can get the most money in the pot, right...???
  • reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,146Subscriber
    TDF said
    kdogmc said
    TDF. If MP has FD then we're screwed. Why shove? His flush draw is crushing ours. And he can suck out with overs.
    We're slightly ahead of bigger FD and two overs cause we have a pair.
    exACTly!!!

    Results coming soon, if the posts slow down. If they keep comin, I'll wait s'more. Cool
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    Results don't matter.
  • BartBart Posts: 6,078AdministratorLeadPro
    I'm pretty happy to get it in here. There are boatloads of more combos of Ts than sets from MP and you need to drive the better hand out of the pot from BB. You sometimes will even get better flush draws to fold out from the BB although from your characterization of the asian guy that seems unlikely to happen. But, he could easily have 66-99, an over pair or a T himself that he will be forced to fold facing two all-ins.

    You are getting a good overlay from the pot vs a likely flip vs MP of Tx or a non paired, higher flush draw.

    And there you go again TDF, what is wrong with overlimping this spot on the button?

    Bart
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    Bart said
    I'm pretty happy to get it in here. There are boatloads of more combos of Ts than sets from MP and you need to drive the better hand out of the pot from BB.
    Why do you want to drive BB with better hands out? You still need to beat Tx to win the pot. I would want some extra dead money from BB in the pot in case I hit.
    (In case we put MP on Tx of course)
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    Bart said
    And there you go again TDF, what is wrong with overlimping this spot on the button?
    I'm not saying that overlimping is wrong. I'm just saying that raising is better.
    Disregard of the hand would you prefer to play bigger pots with initiative in position or smaller pots without initiative?
  • reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,146Subscriber
    TDF said

    Results don't matter.
    Results only matter IMO to confirm our reads, that's all. Not "results" as in who won da moniez, just results as in with what folks showed up to the party.
  • BartBart Posts: 6,078AdministratorLeadPro
    TDF said
    Bart said
    And there you go again TDF, what is wrong with overlimping this spot on the button?
    I'm not saying that overlimping is wrong. I'm just saying that raising is better.
    Disregard of the hand would you prefer to play bigger pots with initiative in position or smaller pots without initiative?
    I don't think you need the betting lead with these types of hands. Most of the time you are going to miss and be forced to bluff at the pot whereas when you flop big cheaply you can maneuver the hand for a big pot anyway.

    And I wanted to touch on the just call suggestion from you above. If us flatting freezes the BB into checking the turn after calling than that play would be optimal. However, I think to him it would look like our hand is a draw and we don't want him to 3bet shove over the top of our flat. It would also be a disaster for us if he played some turn blank stop and go. We are only getting 1-1 on his dead money and even if we are like 51% vs that dead money his added extra cards reduces our chance of winning the entire pot if he has a spade (say we were up against AT and Ks Kh). If he doesn't the equity is pretty close to the same.

    AND most importantly if MP has a higher flush draw and we allow BB in the hand we are almost drawing dead.

    Bart
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    Bart said
    I don't think you need the betting lead with these types of hands. Most of the time you are going to miss and be forced to bluff at the pot
    Nobody is forcing me to bluff at the pot postflop. It's perfectly fine to just gave up and don't put any more money in postflop. But lots of good things can happen when I open. When you limp you limit your chances to win to only cases when you flop big (very rarely) or when you flop enough equity to start bluffing (still rare and you going to lose some times here). When I open I don't need to flop any equity to win pot without showdown.

    when you flop big cheaply you can maneuver the hand for a big pot anyway.
    This works great only against very weak inexperienced players which become more and more rare to find. Opening works against them just as fine plus it works against breakeven and nitty weak regs.
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    According to my math if we up against AT and KsKh:
    - when we ship and BB folds we win $225
    - in worst case scenario when we call, BB ships and we call we win $166

    I don't think difference is too big for a slim chance that BB ships KK on flop or turn cause action before him should look scary enough to "freeze" him.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    I think it's: shoving > calling > folding

    We can't be sure that MP has Tx exclusively. He can have other hands as well, like flush draws, combo draws, JJ type hands, sets.

    I think shoving the flop is superior to calling because BB will have a very hard time calling off his stack with just an overpair. This is important because if we are up against a better made hand AND a better flush draw, we are crushed. But if we are up against only one of these, we have very good equity and a lot of dead money in the pot. Therefore, I prefer isolating the MP.

    We also have a back door straight draw and block some sets.
  • reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,146Subscriber
    whatsyourplay? said

    I think it's: shoving > calling > folding

    We can't be sure that MP has Tx exclusively. He can have other hands as well, like flush draws, combo draws, JJ type hands, sets.

    I think shoving the flop is superior to calling because BB will have a very hard time calling off his stack with just an overpair. This is important because if we are up against a better made hand AND a better flush draw, we are crushed. But if we are up against only one of these, we have very good equity and a lot of dead money in the pot. Therefore, I prefer isolating the MP.

    We also have a back door straight draw and block some sets.
    Ding, ding, ding, we have a winner! Whatsyourplay, I totally agree, and that is what I ended up doing. I thought for a minute, then ripped it in, hoping to fold out BB and racing against a Tx hand of MP.

    Best laid plans...BB tanked. He started talking, hemming, hawing, taking another drink...to my dismay, he eventually found a call. We all turned our cards over:

    BB: Ac Ad (34.8%)
    MP: Tc 8c (12.8%)
    Hero: 6s 5s (52.4%)

    I couldn't put BB on a suited A hand, raising that much preflop after so many limpers, I thought he had a big pair.

    Of course one of the worst cards in the deck came on the turn (3c), and I bricked the river, but still I felt pretty good about the hand overall. It was a very good game that night for sure. I think in a previous life, I would have made the worst play (folding) on the flop, being scared of the money, not being focused on putting people on ranges of hands, etc. I'm glad I made a good play with my strong hand.
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