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Betting the turn where most likely only better calls...Can this be correct?

wildncrazyguywildncrazyguy Posts: 422Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
If you're going to call anyways you should bet most of the time right?

Here's an interesting example where I think you would chk call the turn and chk fold the river but I wonder if betting is better sine I will call the turn (Hand I had tonight):

I raise UTG to 12 in a 1-2 game with AhAd. Old nitty call station man calls. 3 more callers.

Flop comes 10 8 2 rainbow. I bet. Old man min raises. Gets folded back to me. I call. About $120 in the pot. Turn is J bringing in back door flush draw (not for me). I bet $75. He ships for $110 more and I fold. He showed a 10. I believe he had a set of tens. I honestly think I shouldve folded to him with a dry board since he's only calling a hand like K10, but I was thinking maybe he was raising the flop with just a 10 to find out where he is at. I guess I could chk call the turn than chk fold the river BUT against an agressive player esp it seems like I should bet the turn since I'm going to call the turn since the villian would most likely bet the turn to protect against the draws, esp if lets say the turn was a card below a J.

So question is - Do you believe in betting the turn here even though its hard to imagine worse calling? If I'm going to call it seems I should bet vs chk call.

Comments

  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    wildncrazyguy said
    If you're going to call anyways you should bet most of the time right?
    No. You don't want to prevent opponent from bluffing at you.

    To your hand: I don't have bet/call flop, lead turn range. And I don't really think I need it. If he can raise TP I would bet/3bet/fold on the flop. Why wait for the turn?
  • wildncrazyguywildncrazyguy Posts: 422Subscriber
    TDF said
    wildncrazyguy said
    If you're going to call anyways you should bet most of the time right?
    No. You don't want to prevent opponent from bluffing at you.

    To your hand: I don't have bet/call flop, lead turn range. And I don't really think I need it. If he can raise TP I would bet/3bet/fold on the flop. Why wait for the turn?
    Seems like to 3b the flop is overplaying and ONLY better will call for sure than plus I'm thinking thats a more expensive route since just a min raise back for ex would get called by a 10 and you're gained no information. Now what on the turn? No different situation except now you've bloated the pot.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    you just call in order to
    - keep the weaker hands in his range which you beat
    - minimize your losses vs. the stronger hands which beat you.
    It's kind of the typical Way Ahead / Way Behind situation.

    If you come out and bet, you make him to fold his weaker hands and only continue with stronger, which is exactly the opposite of what you want to do.

    The above only changes if the board is very drawy AND villain plays his draws aggressively. Then, betting or raising becomes more of an option because you want to charge his draws for seeing another card.
  • FFS just ship flop. Should probably still include a couple combos of KK, but those are just gravy.

    board: Td8c2s
    Hand Equity Wins Ties
    AdAh 52.19% 11,883 0
    22,88,TT-QQ,Tx8x 47.81% 10,887 0

    edit:
    Oh, and as played c/f turn.

    edit edit:
    If you do bet turn it is a b/c
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    I like both whatsyourplay and staaaalins lines. If the guy is NEVER folding a T then just ship it on the flop. Min raises are so often just top pair that I think you just get it in.

    If he is a true nit then you just have to call him down after he min raises.. Likely he will check river and you will get to showdown and as whats says loose the least while letting him barrel off with worse.

    ww
  • Thehammah said
    If the guy is NEVER folding a T then just ship it on the flop. Min raises are so often just top pair that I think you just get it in.
    Even if he folds JTs OTF if he's not going to continue unimproved we're preventing him from realizing his ~24% equity.
    We come out ahead by shipping even if he would call like 1/4PSB OTR if the turn goes c/c and river bricks.
  • I like just calling his minraise on the flop. Since he is not super short I think he has AT, KT, QT, JT here a lot and less sets. I'd never lead the turn, but I guess as played you made a good fold as this is JT or TT 100% of the time. Just check/call a reasonable sized bet on the turn and probably check/fold the river.
  • wildncrazyguywildncrazyguy Posts: 422Subscriber
    The more I think about this Wendy makes a good point as far as if he's a rec losing player (which this guy is) he's going to be a showdown monkey on the river so chk calling the turn chk folding the river isn't bad. Now against someone aggressive who would be a straight or flush draw on the turn that's where I wonder if I should bet maybe? Shipping is a horrible idea imo. You dont need to risk your whole stack against a bad player with whom you can figure out later on in the hand. Maybe K10 will call a ship if he's bad enough, but maybe not, and if he doesn't play draws aggressively and is passive with a 10 most of the time (Assumption of most rec players when a draw shows up) I can save some of my stack in case I'm beat.
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