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Check raise river with two pair?

TJ Posts: 239Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
$2/$5 NL, Villain has $500, I cover. Villain is a good thin value bettor, he sees me as LAG. I have Jd7d in the cutoff, folds to me, I open for $15. Villain (BTN) calls. Blinds fold.

Flop Jh7s2c.

I bet $20, villain calls. I think he can be floating me some of the time here, but mostly will show up with a jack. He could have 33-66 (probably 3 bets me with better pre). Pot $70

Turn [Jh7s2c]4d

I bet $50, villain calls. Now I have him squarely on a jack. I think he 3 bets me with AJ and some KJ suited, so I'm thinking QJ, JT, J9, J8 mostly. Pot $170

River [Jh7s2c][4d]Qs

I check to him because I know he will bet most of his range here after I bet, bet, check. My plan is to check ship. He surprises me by betting $200 into $170. Oops!

Hero......?

Comments

  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    I would bet river myself. He's not going to call c/r with single J anyway so you're not winning more going for c/r. Also he might call with some SD value hands which he wouldn't bet himself. River is a good perceived bluffing card so he might look you up lighter if he's good.
    His river bet is very polarizing so there s no reason to raise but it's really hard for him to have any bluffs on the river. I can find fold if I have strong reads (history) with this player. If not I would call to get those reads as part of the reason.
  • If he views you as FOS and weak here a lot of the time his river bet makes no sense to me. Would be shocked if he bet 200 here with QJ if he views you as possibly weak here. Would expect more of a value bet from his value hands. Only thing that makes sense to me is a slowplayed KK or AA which you beat. So i'm not finding a fold here.
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