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Tough Overpair Fold to Unknown

Just moved to new game, 5 hands in then this hand goes down. 2/5 daytime game at Venetian.

Utg limps I'm utg+2 with KKd and raise to 25. 1 player two to my left calls and utg calls, 3 ways. Flop Jd 6s Td. Utg checks I bet 65, dude to my left folds, and utg raises to 165 with 145 more behind. Utg has not played a hand yet. He is asian in his late 30s wearing a nice shirt and unlikely a pro.

His check/raise here with so little behind screams strength to me just as Bart talks about. He cannot have combo draws with Kd in his hand. And if he did have AQdd or 89dd I would expect a shove or a call. I folded putting him squarely on 66 or possibly JT suited. No other hand makes sense to me. I feel AJ never makes this play either and just goes into call mode. I basically think i'm punting off 240 more if I continue with this hand but wanted others thoughts. Usually these folds make me squirm but I felt unusually confident about my laydown even though I could only put him on a very narrow range.

It also got me thinking about the 10x (setmining) rule. If this guy had started the hand with less than 250 (10x my opening raise) then I'm basically never folding. Eg, If he c/r ai to 200 or whatever I'm never folding because even if he did hit his set it would be a mistake anyway on his part pre. But by doubling him up here 100% of the time when (im confident) he has a set and a stack bigger than 10x my opening raise, it would be a mistake on my part. thoughts please

Comments

  • TJ Posts: 239Subscriber
    Sounds like a good fold, and Stove agrees. I think your range analysis is pretty spot on since you have the Kd. Pot odds: Obv, he's never folding, so it's essentially call $255 to win $460, meaning you need around 35% equity. Against a range of 66, JT suited, Qd9d, and two combos of AdJx, you're slightly over break even @ 38%. However, as played, I think, as you said, AJ is unlikely. Take those out, and you're only 28%.
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